Public debates are a common platform for presenting and juxtaposing diverging views on important issues. In this work we propose a methodology for tracking how ideas flow between participants throughout a debate. We use this approach in a case study of Oxford-style debates---a competitive format where the winner is det…
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48 results for “debates”
PEAR dynamically reconfigures agent roles to prevent persistent biases in multi-agent debates.
problem Persistent positional biases and sensitivity to role assignments in fixed topologies.
method Dynamic reconfiguration of agent roles and sparse topologies based on evolving agent states.
result Significantly improves average accuracy over debate baselines across multiple reasoning benchmarks.
A novel fact-checking method using debate dynamics on knowledge graphs.
problem Fact-checking on knowledge graphs with user comprehension and interactive reasoning.
method Reinforcement learning agents debate on paths in the graph to classify facts as true or false.
result Interactive reasoning and user understanding of AI decisions on knowledge graphs.
Advocates for Marr's levels of analysis to unify machine learning debates.
problem Challenges in aligning perspectives among machine learning researchers.
method Introduces Marr's levels of analysis from cognitive science and neuroscience.
result Marr's levels facilitate understanding and dissection of machine learning methods.
A method for reasoning on knowledge graphs using debate dynamics.
problem Automatic reasoning on knowledge graphs with interpretability.
method Reinforcement learning agents debate over facts, judge decides truth.
result Method outperforms baselines on triple classification and link prediction tasks.
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
We are in the middle of a complex debate as to whether Economics is really a proper natural science. The 'Discussion & Debate' issue of this Euro. Phys. J. Special Topic volume is: 'Can economics be a Physical Science?' I discuss some aspects here.
AI safety via debatestat.ML
To make AI systems broadly useful for challenging real-world tasks, we need them to learn complex human goals and preferences. One approach to specifying complex goals asks humans to judge during training which agent behaviors are safe and useful, but this approach can fail if the task is too complicated for a human to…
Every year at the United Nations, member states deliver statements during the General Debate discussing major issues in world politics. These speeches provide invaluable information on governments' perspectives and preferences on a wide range of issues, but have largely been overlooked in the study of international pol…
Simplified LSTM models improve sentiment analysis on Twitter debate data.
problem Performing sentiment analysis on long sequence data from Twitter debates.
method Developed six parameter-reduced LSTM models (slim LSTM) for faster training and reduced computational cost.
result Slim LSTM models outperform standard LSTM model in sentiment analysis of GOP Debate Twitter dataset.
Sentiment Analysis of microblog feeds has attracted considerable interest in recent times. Most of the current work focuses on tweet sentiment classification. But not much work has been done to explore how reliable the opinions of the mass (crowd wisdom) in social network microblogs such as twitter are in predicting ou…
The goal of this article is to inspire data scientists to participate in the debate on the impact that their professional work has on society, and to become active in public debates on the digital world as data science professionals. How do ethical principles (e.g., fairness, justice, beneficence, and non-maleficence) …
How technology affects growth or employment has long been debated. With a hiatus, the debate revived once again in the form of how Information and Communications Technology, as a form of new technology, exerts on productivity and employment. Information and Communications Technology perceived as General Purpose Technol…
This study models FOMC policy decisions using debate-based LLMs.
problem Accurately predicting central bank policy decisions, especially FOMC's, is challenging.
method A novel framework that simulates FOMC's collective decision-making process through iterative rounds of LLMs interacting as agents.
result The debate-based approach significantly outperforms standard LLMs in prediction accuracy.
Machine learning (ML) is increasingly deployed in real world contexts, supplying actionable insights and forming the basis of automated decision-making systems. While issues resulting from biases pre-existing in training data have been at the center of the fairness debate, these systems are also affected by technical a…
Granger causality reviewed and advanced for complex data.
problem Validity of inferring causal relationships from time series data.
method Recent advances in models for high-dimensional time series, accounting for nonlinear and non-Gaussian observations, and sub-sampled data.
result Improved computational tools for Granger causality.
LLMs add value in commodity portfolio construction when information set and implementation rules are held fixed.
problem Commodity portfolio construction
method Multi-Agent LLM Framework
result LLM strategies outperform Rule Agent in Sharpe terms
To promote economic stability, finance should be studied as a hard science, where scientific methods apply. When a trading strategy is proposed, the underlying model should be transparent and defined robustly to allow other researchers to understand and examine it thoroughly. Like any hard sciences, results must be rep…
Potential Future Exposure (PFE) is a standard risk metric for managing business unit counterparty credit risk but there is debate on how it should be calculated. The debate has been whether to use one of many historical ("physical") measures (one per calibration setup), or one of many risk-neutral measures (one per num…
Foreign policy analysis has been struggling to find ways to measure policy preferences and paradigm shifts in international political systems. This paper presents a novel, potential solution to this challenge, through the application of a neural word embedding (Word2vec) model on a dataset featuring speeches by heads o…
This expository paper is a tribute to Ekkehart Kröner's results on the intrinsic non-Riemannian geometrical nature of a single crystal filled with point and/or line defects. A new perspective on this old theory is proposed, intended to contribute to the debate around the still open Kröner's question: "what are the dyna…
Decentralization illusion in Decentralized Finance: Evidence from tokenized voting in MakerDAO pollscs.CR
MakerDAO's governance is centralized despite its decentralized claim.
problem Decentralization illusion in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) governance.
method Empirical analysis using financial, transaction, network, and sentiment indicators.
result Centralized governance impacts Maker protocol and voting power distribution.
With a point of departure in the concept "uncomfortable knowledge," this article presents a case study of how the American Planning Association (APA) deals with such knowledge. APA was found to actively suppress publicity of malpractice concerns and bad planning in order to sustain a boosterish image of planning. In th…
Study uses few-shot learning to analyze claims and arguments in German debate on arms deliveries.
problem Limited data and computational resources for automated content analysis.
method Multilingual transformer model with adapter extension and few-shot learning.
result Parameter-efficient approach performs well on varying training set sizes.
New framework models uncertainty in classification debates.
problem Weak interpretability of existing uncertainty quantification methods.
method Courtroom analogy and Mixture of Dirichlet Experts (MoDEX) model.
result MoDEX achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification performance.
This paper reviews bank performance determinants, highlighting future research areas.
problem Understanding bank performance factors to improve sector efficiency and knowledge.
method Analysis of 54 studies in peer-reviewed journals.
result Bank performance factors remain largely unexplored, especially post-COVID-19.
Proves lower discount rates are needed for future losses.
problem Determining appropriate discount rates for future losses.
method Analyzes climate change and discount rates debate.
result Risk requires a lower, not higher, discount rate.
The logic of uncertainty as a logic of experience and chance and the co~event-based Bayes' theoremq-fin.GN
The logic of uncertainty is not the logic of experience and as well as it is not the logic of chance. It is the logic of experience and chance. Experience and chance are two inseparable poles. These are two dual reflections of one essence, which is called co~event. The theory of experience and chance is the theory of c…
The Information Plane theory predicts autoencoders do not compress input information.
problem Understanding the training dynamics of hidden layers in autoencoders.
method Derive a theoretical convergence for the Information Plane of autoencoders using a Gram-matrix based mutual information estimator.
result Ideal autoencoders with a large bottleneck layer size do not compress input information, while a small size causes compression only in the encoder layers.
In the current environment of financial distress, many governments are likely to soon become major holders of financial assets, but the policy debate focuses only on the likelihood and extent of short-term market stabilization. This paper shows that government intervention and propping up are likely to lead to long-ter…
Researchers have used from 30 days to several years of daily returns as source data for clustering financial time series based on their correlations. This paper sets up a statistical framework to study the validity of such practices. We first show that clustering correlated random variables from their observed values i…
Controversies around race and machine learning have sparked debate among computer scientists over how to design machine learning systems that guarantee fairness. These debates rarely engage with how racial identity is embedded in our social experience, making for sociological and psychological complexity. This complexi…
Bayesian neural networks integrate uncertainty into neural networks for improved performance.
problem Overconfidence, lack of interpretability, and adversarial attacks in neural networks.
method Integrates Bayesian inference into neural networks to address limitations.
result BNNs improve model performance and provide uncertainty estimates.
What makes a paper independently reproducible? Debates on reproducibility center around intuition or assumptions but lack empirical results. Our field focuses on releasing code, which is important, but is not sufficient for determining reproducibility. We take the first step toward a quantifiable answer by manually att…
We offer a graphical interpretation of unfairness in a dataset as the presence of an unfair causal path in the causal Bayesian network representing the data-generation mechanism. We use this viewpoint to revisit the recent debate surrounding the COMPAS pretrial risk assessment tool and, more generally, to point out tha…
Do We Need to Verify Step by Step? Rethinking Process Supervision from a Theoretical Perspectivecs.LG
Paper resolves the debate on process vs. outcome supervision in reinforcement learning.
problem Distinguishing between process and outcome supervision in reinforcement learning.
method Developed a technical tool (Change of Trajectory Measure Lemma) to show equivalence between outcome and process supervision under standard data coverage assumptions.
result Reinforcement learning through outcome supervision is statistically equivalent to process supervision, up to polynomial factors in horizon.
Recent advances in the understanding of time series permit to clarify seasonalities and cycles, which might be rather obscure in today's literature. A theorem due to P. Cartier and Y. Perrin, which was published only recently, in 1995, and several time scales yield, perhaps for the first time, a clear-cut definition of…
The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been hotly debated, In this paper we demonstrate that, while it is critical to explic…
Group fairness is an important concern for machine learning researchers, developers, and regulators. However, the strictness to which models must be constrained to be considered fair is still under debate. The focus of this work is on constraining the expected outcome of subpopulations in kernel regression and, in part…
The use of the trading halts is a practice common to all markets. However, the advantages and the disadvantages of the measurements are regularly discussed. The partisans think that the trading suspensions or the price limits make it possible to the investors to have time to react to the new information. The detractors…
Geospatial ML models need special evaluation methods due to their unique challenges.
problem Evaluating geospatial machine learning models is challenging due to their specific characteristics.
method Delineated unique challenges and proposed concrete takeaways for improving geospatial model evaluations.
result Concrete takeaways for improving evaluations of geospatial model performance.
Study generalization of voting classifiers using margin-based bounds.
problem Understanding the generalization of ensemble classifiers like voting.
method Proved margin-based generalization bounds using PAC-Bayes theory and Dirichlet posteriors.
result Provided state-of-the-art guarantees on classification tasks.
Enhanced financial trading system using multi-agent LLMs with layered memory.
problem Inefficient prioritization of tasks in LLMs due to their memory processing.
method Introducing a multi-agent framework with layered memories and inter-agent debate.
result Superior automated trading accuracy and decision robustness.
Zipf Distributions from Two-Stage Symbolic Processes: Stability Under Stochastic Lexical Filteringstat.ME
Study explains Zipf's law using geometric mechanisms from a finite alphabet.
problem Explains Zipf's law in language without relying on linguistic elements.
method Uses the Full Combinatorial Word Model (FCWM) to generate geometric distributions of word lengths.
result Supports predictions of power-law rank-frequency curves, matching various languages.
Exposure bias refers to the train-test discrepancy that seemingly arises when an autoregressive generative model uses only ground-truth contexts at training time but generated ones at test time. We separate the contributions of the model and the learning framework to clarify the debate on consequences and review propos…
The Heston model optimizes portfolio management based on real market data.
problem Choosing between active and passive investment strategies.
method Calibrated Heston model to real stock market data.
result Passive strategy can outperform active strategy depending on market parameters.
This paper analyzes voter coalitions in MakerDAO's decentralized governance.
problem Understanding the governance structure and influence of voter coalitions in DAOs.
method Applied clustering algorithm to voting history of MakerDAO to identify voter coalitions.
result The emergence of a dominant voter coalition signals governance centralization in DAOs.
Addressing the ongoing examination of high-frequency trading practices in financial markets, we report the results of an extensive empirical study estimating the maximum possible profitability of the most aggressive such practices, and arrive at figures that are surprisingly modest. By "aggressive" we mean any trading …