Credit estimation and bankruptcy prediction methods have been utilizing Altman's score method for the last several years. It is reported in many studies that score is sensitive to changes in accounting figures. Researches have proposed different variations to conventional score that can improve the predicti…
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26 results for “Z-scores”
Interpretable transformed ANOVA approximation on the example of the prevention of forest firesstat.ML
The paper uses transformed ANOVA to identify important fire detection variables.
problem Identifying key variables for forest fire detection.
method Developed a complete orthonormal system for standard normal distribution, applied Z-score transformation, and used ANOVA approximation.
result Attribute ranking reveals important variables for fire detection.
For time series comparisons, it has often been observed that z-score normalized Euclidean distances far outperform the unnormalized variant. In this paper we show that a z-score normalized, squared Euclidean Distance is, in fact, equal to a distance based on Pearson Correlation. This has profound impact on many distanc…
This study uses TDA to map corporate failure, revealing distinct regions of risk.
problem Understanding and predicting corporate default risk.
method Topological Data Analysis (TDA) applied to Altman's Z-score model.
result Firms do not cluster neatly along default predictors, suggesting complex risk landscapes.
LLMs add value in commodity portfolio construction when information set and implementation rules are held fixed.
problem Commodity portfolio construction
method Multi-Agent LLM Framework
result LLM strategies outperform Rule Agent in Sharpe terms
A new score SiNNE improves OAM efficiency and accuracy.
problem Comparing outlier scores across subspaces of different dimensions.
method Introducing SiNNE, a new score independent of subspace dimensionality.
result SiNNE produces better or at least as good results as existing scores and significantly improves runtime.
Study shows heavy-tailed distributions affect reliability of machine learning calibration statistics.
problem Reliability of calibration statistics for machine learning regression tasks is affected by heavy-tailed uncertainty and error distributions.
method Examined two calibration error estimation methods (CE and ZMS) and found ZMS to be less sensitive to heavy-tailed distributions.
result Heavy-tailed distributions make MSE and MV unreliable, but ZMS remains a reliable approach.
Inference of gene regulatory network from expression data is a challenging task. Many methods have been developed to this purpose but a comprehensive evaluation that covers unsupervised, semi-supervised and supervised methods, and provides guidelines for their practical application, is lacking. We performed an extensiv…
LOBRM model recreates limit order books from trade and quote data.
problem Lack of LOB data and limitations in LOBRM model.
method Extended LOBRM with time-weighted z-score standardization and exponential decay kernel, conducted in chronological order.
result LOBRM with decay kernel outperforms traditional models and module ensembling is effective.
New method uses statistical physics to detect financial market manipulation.
problem Detecting financial market manipulation activities like spoofing and layering.
method Modeling order book dynamics as particle motion and using momentum measure.
result Method outperforms conventional Z-score-based anomaly detection.
The paper extends logistic regression for unbounded majority classes and derives asymptotic properties.
problem Infinitely imbalanced logistic regression inference.
method Derive a second order expansion for slope parameter under unbounded majority class.
result The second order term converges to a normal distribution with a variance depending only on the minority class's mean.
In this paper, we build an organization of high-dimensional datasets that cannot be cleanly embedded into a low-dimensional representation due to missing entries and a subset of the features being irrelevant to modeling functions of interest. Our algorithm begins by defining coarse neighborhoods of the points and defin…
Nearest Neighbors Algorithm is a Lazy Learning Algorithm, in which the algorithm tries to approximate the predictions with the help of similar existing vectors in the training dataset. The predictions made by the K-Nearest Neighbors algorithm is based on averaging the target values of the spatial neighbors. The selecti…
Novel framework for contextual anomaly detection models uncertainty.
problem Identifying anomalies in target variables influenced by contextual variables.
method Normalcy score (NS) framework using heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression.
result NS outperforms state-of-the-art methods in detection accuracy and interpretability.
New method uses interval-based metric to validate prediction uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Validation of prediction uncertainty in machine learning regression tasks is unreliable due to heavy-tailed distributions.
method Shift from variance-based metrics to interval-based Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP).
result PICP method more quickly and reliably tests prediction intervals than variance-based metrics.
LOCA learns standardized data coordinates from measurements.
problem Learning invariant data coordinates from non-linearly deformed manifolds.
method LOCA, a LOcal Conformal Autoencoder, learns an isometric embedding.
result LOCA preserves geometric information while learning invariant coordinates.
Information-theoretic measures for non-linear causality detection: application to social media sentiment and cryptocurrency pricesphysics.data-an
Information transfer between time series is calculated by using the asymmetric information-theoretic measure known as transfer entropy. Geweke's autoregressive formulation of Granger causality is used to find linear transfer entropy, and Schreiber's general, non-parametric, information-theoretic formulation is used to …
This paper provides a practical method to extract caplet volatilities from quoted data.
problem Extracting caplet volatilities from quoted data is complex and not straightforward.
method The paper presents a constructive algorithm based on criteria and robust outlier detection. It includes direct interpolation, bootstrap methods, and global search methods.
result The paper introduces methods to extract caplet volatilities that are arbitrage-free and consistent with quoted data.
Signature-Based Optimal Execution for Statistical Arbitrage with Path-Dependent Trading Signalsq-fin.TR
Develops a new trading strategy for statistical arbitrage with path-dependent signals.
problem Optimal execution in statistical arbitrage strategies with dynamic predictive signals.
method Signature-based framework modeling alpha and trading speed as linear functionals of truncated signature of market path.
result Fitted policy achieves higher return on turnover compared to a z-score benchmark.
Outlier detection is a technique in data mining that aims to detect unusual or unexpected records in the dataset. Existing outlier detection algorithms have different pros and cons and exhibit different sensitivity to noisy data such as extreme values. In this paper, we propose a novel cluster-based outlier detection a…
Understanding human fetal neurodevelopment is of great clinical importance as abnormal development is linked to adverse neuropsychiatric outcomes after birth. Recent advances in functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) have provided new insight into development of the human brain before birth, but these studies hav…
The nullspace and regularization impact high-dimensional linear regression interpretability.
problem Interpreting high-dimensional linear regression coefficients in complex data.
method Optimization formulation to compare coefficients and physical knowledge.
result Regularization and z-scoring choices affect interpretability and true coefficient closeness.
Copula-based fusion improves breast cancer risk stratification.
problem Combining clinical and genomic risk scores using simple rules fails to capture their joint relationship.
method Used copulas to model the joint relationship between clinical and genomic risk scores.
result Copula-based fusion improves risk stratification, identifying subgroups with the worst prognosis.
EDD uses entropy of distance distributions to cluster unlabeled data.
problem Challenges in clustering unlabeled high-dimensional data.
method EDD employs Shannon entropy to quantify distance distribution peaks.
result EDD detects varying degrees of clustering sensitivity.
Transformer model outperforms classical methods in childhood anemia prediction across diverse countries.
problem Generalizing childhood anemia prediction models across different countries and data scarcity.
method Transformer-based tabular foundation model compared to classical supervised methods using DHS data.
result Transformer model achieves lower Brier score and ECE in low-data settings, outperforming classical models.
AGENTICAITA uses AI agents to autonomously trade markets without human intervention.
problem Inability of traditional trading systems to adapt to market complexity.
method Introduces an agentic AI framework with specialized LLM agents reasoning, negotiating, and acting.
result Demonstrated operational correctness and non-trivial inter-agent negotiation in live market conditions.