Convolutional neural networks predict the analytic rank of elliptic curves accurately.
problem Predicting the analytic rank of elliptic curves over Q.
method Applied one-dimensional convolutional neural networks to Frobenius traces.
result High accuracy predictions for analytic rank across various conductors.
New ROC tools assess predictive abilities for any linearly ordered outcomes.
problem Fundamental restriction in ROC analysis for non-dichotomous outcomes.
method ROC movies and UROC curves for linearly ordered outcomes.
result CPA equals AUC for binary outcomes and relates to Spearman's coefficient for pairwise distinct outcomes.
Machine learning predicts arithmetic curve invariants with high accuracy.
problem Classifying arithmetic curves based on their invariants.
method Training machine learning algorithms on datasets of elliptic and genus 2 curves.
result High accuracy in classifying curves, including rank, torsion, and integral points.
Learn2Evaluate uses learning curves to estimate high-dimensional prediction performance.
problem Estimating test performance in high-dimensional data settings is challenging.
method Learn2Evaluate uses learning curves to estimate test performance at the total sample size.
result Learn2Evaluate provides a lower confidence bound for performance estimation.
Model predicts multi-modal sequences using N-curves.
problem Capturing multi-modal data in sequential data.
method Neural network model based on Mixture Density Networks with Bézier curves.
result Smooth multi-mode predictions without Monte Carlo simulation.
Study predicts success of crypto-tokens on Pump.fun platform.
problem Identify factors affecting the success of new crypto-tokens.
method Build predictive models using bonding curve mechanism and structural/behavioral variables.
result Conditional variables significantly improve the predictive power of token success.
Enhances linear regression with Kalman filter for loss minimization.
problem Minimizing loss in linear regression models.
method Integrates Kalman filter and SGD for optimal weight updates.
result Develops optimal linear regression equation with minimum area under curve.
Machine learning predicts Shafarevich-Tate group orders of elliptic curves.
problem Predicting the order of the Shafarevich-Tate group of elliptic curves.
method Train feed-forward neural network and regression models on elliptic curve invariants.
result Models achieve high accuracy (>0.9) and predict orders not seen during training. Neural networks are capable of learning rich, nonlinear feature representations shown to be beneficial in many predictive tasks. In this work, we use such models to explore different geographical feature representations in the context of predicting colorectal cancer survival curves for patients in the state of Iowa, sp…
Using elementary ideas from Tropical Geometry, we assign a a tropical curve to every q-holonomic sequence of rational functions. In particular, we assign a tropical curve to every knot which is determined by the Jones polynomial of the knot and its parallels. The topical curve explains the relation between the AJ Con…
We propose a Bayesian model that predicts recovery curves based on information available before the disruptive event. A recovery curve of interest is the quantified sexual function of prostate cancer patients after prostatectomy surgery. We illustrate the utility of our model as a pre-treatment medical decision aid, pr…
Enhances patient failure prediction using dynamic survival models.
problem Lack of precise individual level prediction in conventional models.
method Developed counterfactual dynamic survival model (CDSM).
result Inflection point of estimated survival curves predicts patient failure time.
The study predicts surgical complications in Crohn's disease patients using machine learning.
problem Predicting surgical complications in Crohn's disease patients.
method Developed a novel algorithm using ensemble machine learning on 29 baseline covariates.
result Proposed pseudo-observation based estimators for evaluating predictive performance.
Probabilistic models predict neural network performance across varying hyperparameters.
problem Predicting neural network performance with different hyperparameters.
method Probabilistic models based on random forests and Bayesian recurrent neural networks.
result Models outperform state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization methods.
LC-PFN predicts learning curve performance more accurately and faster than MCMC.
problem Bayesian extrapolation of learning curves is computationally expensive and overly restrictive.
method Prior-Data Fitted Neural Networks (PFNs) for approximate Bayesian inference.
result LC-PFN outperforms MCMC in accuracy and is significantly faster.
RestoreAI predicts landmine risk from patterns, improving clearance efficiency.
problem Predicting landmine risk from spatial patterns to enhance clearance efficiency.
method RestoreAI uses landmine patterns for risk prediction, implementing three deminers: linear, curved, and Bayesian.
result RestoreAI significantly boosts clearance efficiency, achieving a 14.37 percentage point increase in cleared landmines per timestep.
The study examines how class imbalance affects precision-recall curves.
problem Understanding how precision changes with class imbalance ratios.
method Analyzes the relationship between precision, class imbalance ratio, and true/false positive rates.
result Predicts changes in precision-recall curves and other measures with class imbalance ratios.
We present an arbitrage-free non-parametric yield curve prediction model which takes the full (discretized) yield curve as state variable. We believe that absence of arbitrage is an important model feature in case of highly correlated data, as it is the case for interest rates. Furthermore, the model structure allows t…
New model predicts neural network performance from early training epochs, incorporating architecture impact.
problem Predicting neural network performance from early training epochs, neglecting architecture impact.
method Architecture-aware graph ordinary differential equation model.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art methods for MLP and CNN learning curves.
Comparison of decision curve analysis and cost curves for model evaluation.
problem Evaluating classification performance across different operating contexts.
method Comparison of Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) and Cost Curves.
result DCA and Cost Curves are closely related, with Brier curves being more generally applicable.
We analyse an issue when comparing survival curves between two subgroups. We show that there is a direct relationship between estimates of subgroups' survival at a time point and positive and negative predictive values in the binary classification settings. Our findings present a case where current methods of comparing…
Predict missing and future data points in light curves using scalable Gaussian Processes.
problem Gappy time-series data from commercial cameras confound light curve prediction.
method MuyGPs, a scalable framework for hyperparameter estimation of Gaussian Processes using nearest neighbors sparsification and local cross-validation.
result MuyGPs enable accurate prediction of missing and future data points in light curves.
New method quantifies redundant information using information bottleneck.
problem Quantifying redundant information among multiple sources.
method Formulated as an information bottleneck problem, termed redundancy bottleneck.
result Extracts information that best predicts the target without revealing source identity.
Paper introduces impact curves for evaluating binarized regression models with varying costs.
problem Evaluating binarized regression models with varying costs and instance-specific utility.
method Proposes impact curves to optimize binary decisions across different utilities.
result Impact curves identify conditions where one model is favored over another and quantify model improvement.
Proposes ridge regression on Riemannian manifolds for time-series prediction.
problem Time-series prediction on Riemannian manifolds.
method Combines Riemannian least-squares fitting via Bézier curves, empirical covariance on manifolds, and Mahalanobis distance regularization.
result Significant error reduction in synthetic spherical experiments and hurricane forecasting.
Efficiently models learning curves using Gaussian processes with latent Kronecker structure.
problem Joint modeling of machine learning model performance across hyper-parameters and training progress.
method Imposes latent Kronecker structure to leverage efficient product kernels and handle missing values.
result Matches the performance of a Transformer on a learning curve prediction task.
Paper develops methods for estimating patient-specific survival curve prediction intervals.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in ISD models.
method Adapted existing method for ISD survival curve analysis.
result New methods provide accurate simultaneous prediction intervals.
CP-ROC bands improve graph classification accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distributional shifts in graph classification.
method Conditional Prediction ROC (CP-ROC) bands for graph classification, developed for TGNNs and adaptable to GNNs.
result Statistically guaranteed coverage for CP-ROC under local exchangeability condition, improving prediction reliability.
Many problems that appear in biomedical decision making, such as diagnosing disease and predicting response to treatment, can be expressed as binary classification problems. The costs of false positives and false negatives vary across application domains and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves provide a visu…
Paper uses nearest neighbor method to predict exam success based on online test trends.
problem Predicting student success/failure in final exams.
method Applied nearest neighbor method to estimate student learning skill from online test trends.
result Improved prediction accuracy for exam success/failure.
Machine learning fails to improve recession prediction with yield spread.
problem Improving recession prediction using yield spread selection.
method Machine learning algorithm to identify best maturity pair and coefficients.
result Machine learning does not significantly improve prediction of recession.
Two methods forecast functional time series, offering competitive results.
problem Forecasting functional time series with model-free approaches.
method Two nonparametric methods: k-nearest neighbors adaptation and curve envelope selection.
result Competitive results with and often superior to benchmarks.
Theory and method for reducing prediction variance in noisy feature-subsampled ridge ensembles.
problem Reduction of prediction variance in noisy data with feature bagging.
method Developed analytical learning curves for noisy ridge ensembles, introduced heterogeneous feature ensembling.
result Subsampling shifts the double-descent peak, leading to improved performance over a single linear predictor.
New method assesses prediction intervals across different operating points.
problem Difficulty in comparing prediction intervals across studies.
method Operating characteristics curves and gain over a simple reference.
result A novel operating point agnostic assessment methodology for prediction intervals.
The paper presents a multi-power law for predicting loss curves across different learning rate schedules.
problem Understanding and optimizing the relationship between model performance and hyperparameters, especially learning rates.
method Proposes a multi-power law that combines power laws based on the sum of learning rates and additional laws for loss reduction due to decay.
result The multi-power law accurately predicts loss curves for unseen learning rate schedules and finds a schedule that outperforms cosine learning rate.
Physics-constrained GP predicts material states under shockwave conditions.
problem Predicting material states under extreme shockwave conditions.
method Physics-constrained Gaussian Process regression with Rankine-Hugoniot constraints.
result Reproduces Hugoniot curves with satisfactory accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
Complete conjecture on rational curves on K3 surfaces.
problem Existence of infinitely many rational curves on K3 surfaces.
method Two new techniques: regeneration and marked point trick.
result Existence of integral curves of unbounded degree for any projective K3 surface.
Machine learning predicts circulatory failure in ICU patients.
problem Limited ability of clinicians to recognize early signs of patient deterioration.
method Developed an early warning system using machine learning on ICU data.
result Predicts 90.0% of circulatory failure events with 81.8% identified more than two hours in advance.
Machine learning outperforms statistical methods with larger data sets.
problem Lower predictive performance of machine learning methods compared to statistical methods under low sample size.
method Learning curve method to analyze predictive performance across different sample sizes.
result Machine learning methods improve their predictive performance as sample size increases.
Reanalysis of bioactivity prediction models suggests SVM performance is competitive with deep learning.
problem Benchmarking and validation of machine learning models in drug discovery.
method Reanalysis of a large-scale comparison of machine learning models for bioactivity prediction, using numerical experiments to question ROC curve relevance and suggest precision-recall curve.
result Support vector machines show competitive performance with deep learning methods in bioactivity prediction.
SurvMixClust clusters survival data and predicts individual survival curves.
problem Integrating clustering into survival analysis for precision medicine.
method SurvMixClust learns latent representations for clustering and predicts survival functions using a mixture of non-parametric experts.
result SurvMixClust creates balanced clusters with distinct survival curves, outperforming clustering baselines and competing with non-clustering models in predictive accuracy.
Study improves vehicle motion prediction by incorporating traffic density.
problem Lack of contextual knowledge in predicting driving behavior.
method Categorize and define external conditions, evaluate motion prediction approach.
result Traffic density significantly improves motion prediction accuracy.
The paper extends a prediction method to curved spaces.
problem Prediction with expert advice in curved spaces.
method Geometric considerations and adaptation of online to batch conversion.
result Extension of exponentially weighted average forecaster to non-positive curvature spaces.
Computes colored HOMFLYPT invariants using holomorphic curves.
problem Counting holomorphic curves in Calabi-Yau 3-folds.
method Computes contributions of multiple covers of holomorphic annuli.
result Agrees with topological string theory predictions and proves Ooguri-Vafa formula.
This work proposes robustness curves to analyze model robustness.
problem Uncertainty in automated systems predictions due to adversarial examples.
method Introduces robustness curves to separate robustness analysis from threshold and norm choice.
result Robustness curves can qualitatively depend on the chosen norm.
Random forest model predicts sewer pipe deterioration with high accuracy.
problem Challenges in predicting and scheduling sewer pipe inspections.
method Random forest classification model for sewer pipe condition prediction.
result Model achieved excellent AUC of 0.81 in a case study for City of LA.
Unified theory for neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.
problem Understanding neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.
method Probabilistic context-free grammars and power-law distributed production rules.
result Unified learning curve behavior for classification and next-token prediction tasks.
We investigate a long-debated question, which is how to create predictive models of recidivism that are sufficiently accurate, transparent, and interpretable to use for decision-making. This question is complicated as these models are used to support different decisions, from sentencing, to determining release on proba…