Novel framework identifies pump-specific deterioration rates using Bayesian hierarchical hazard modeling and causal discovery.
problem Challenges in asset management due to heterogeneous deterioration rates in pump equipment.
method Bayesian hierarchical hazard modeling with causal discovery, GPU-accelerated No-U-Turn Sampling (NUTS), and DirectLiNGAM.
result Identified striking heterogeneity in deterioration rates, with negative effects 400 times larger than positive effects.
The paper monitors model deterioration using uncertainty estimation.
problem Challenges in monitoring deployed machine learning models.
method Non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values.
result The approach detects model deterioration and uncertainty effectively.
Proposes a framework to explain KS deterioration in credit risk models.
problem Inconsistent and ad hoc diagnosis of KS decline in credit risk models.
method Counterfactual diagnostic framework attributing KS decline to sampling variability, portfolio composition, covariate shift, and residual deterioration.
result The proposed approach provides more interpretable and governance-relevant explanations than threshold-based review alone.
Proposes efficient algorithm for system-level I&M decisions under uncertainty.
problem Optimal management strategies for deteriorating civil engineering systems.
method Factored partially observable Markov decision process with Bayesian networks and DDMAC reinforcement learning.
result DDMAC policies offer substantial benefits over heuristic approaches in system-level cost optimization.
Accelerated gradient method's stability deteriorates exponentially with steps.
problem Algorithmic stability of Nesterov's accelerated gradient method.
method Analysis of two notions of algorithmic stability for Nesterov's accelerated gradient method.
result Stability of Nesterov's accelerated method deteriorates exponentially with the number of gradient steps.
The paper develops models to predict the remaining useful life of water pipes.
problem Predicting the remaining useful life of deteriorating water pipes.
method Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) applied to field data.
result Models accurately predict the reduction of remaining useful life due to pipe deterioration.
Federated CTMC model estimates bridge deterioration hazards without sharing raw data.
problem Bridge inspection data privacy and cross-organizational data sharing constraints.
method Federated CTMC hazard model with local optimization and FedAvg aggregation.
result Federated model converges on global benchmark parameters without data transfer.
Random forest model predicts sewer pipe deterioration with high accuracy.
problem Challenges in predicting and scheduling sewer pipe inspections.
method Random forest classification model for sewer pipe condition prediction.
result Model achieved excellent AUC of 0.81 in a case study for City of LA.
Study optimizes inspection and monitoring of deteriorating structures using POMDPs.
problem Optimizing decision-making for deteriorating engineering systems with uncertain observations.
method Developed theoretical and computational foundations for Value of Information (VoI) and Value of Structural Health Monitoring (VoSHM) in POMDPs.
result POMDP policies inherently leverage VoI to guide optimal observational actions, improving long-term cost.
Machine learning for healthcare often trains models on de-identified datasets with randomly-shifted calendar dates, ignoring the fact that data were generated under hospital operation practices that change over time. These changing practices induce definitive changes in observed data which confound evaluations which do…
Training on some out-of-distribution data improves generalization error before it deteriorates.
problem Generalization error improves with some out-of-distribution data but deteriorates with more.
method Synthetic datasets and deep networks on computer vision benchmarks.
result Non-monotonic trend in generalization error with OOD samples.
The Lasso is a computationally efficient regression regularization procedure that can produce sparse estimators when the number of predictors (p) is large. Oracle inequalities provide probability loss bounds for the Lasso estimator at a deterministic choice of the regularization parameter. These bounds tend to zero if …
Machine learning improves early detection of patient deterioration in Brazilian hospitals.
problem Challenges in recognizing clinical deterioration in hospital settings.
method Application of machine learning to analyze EHR data from multiple hospitals.
result Machine learning models outperformed traditional protocols by 25 percentage points in AUC.
The paper develops a method to predict the latent deterioration phase in limit order books before stress is observed.
problem Limit order books can transition rapidly from stable to stressed conditions, making it difficult to detect the latent deterioration phase.
method The paper formalizes a three-regime causal data-generating process and proposes a trigger-based detector combining MAX aggregation of complementary signal channels, a rising-edge condition, and adaptive thresholding.
result The proposed method achieves mean lead-time of +18.6 timesteps with perfect precision and moderate coverage, outperforming classical change-point and microstructure baselines.
Study quantifies firm risks from nature decline, showing significant equity losses.
problem Estimating the financial impact of nature deterioration on companies.
method Developed metrics (Country Degradation Index, Nature Risk Score) and assessed five environmental hazards.
result Global equities lose 26.8% in a nature decline scenario, with worst firms losing 75%.
Study on neural networks' performance in sequential task learning.
problem Understanding the performance of neural networks in sequential task learning.
method Theoretical analysis of generalization performance in continual learning using statistical mechanical analysis of kernel ridge-less regression.
result Characteristic transitions from positive to negative transfer observed in neural networks.
Theoretical and empirical taxonomy of imbalance in binary classification.
problem Class imbalance degrades binary classification performance.
method Proposed a principled framework based on three scales: imbalance coefficient, sample-dimension ratio, and intrinsic separability. Derived closed-form Bayes errors and analyzed degradation across models.
result The triplet (η, κ, Δ) provides a model-agnostic explanation of imbalance-induced deterioration.
Develops a minimax optimal estimator for system stability under distribution shift.
problem Ensuring system reliability under changes in the underlying environment.
method Minimax optimal estimation of stability defined in terms of acceptable performance degradation.
result Characterizes the minimax convergence rate and demonstrates practical utility.
A new neural network model identifies hysteresis universally.
problem Inability of existing models to simulate hysteresis universally.
method Inspired by the Preisach model, an Extended Preisach Neural Network (EPNN) is introduced with two hidden layers and a hybrid training algorithm.
result EPNN successfully identifies various hysteresis phenomena from different fields.
Robust policies improve ICU transfer outcomes by predicting patient deterioration.
problem Higher mortality rates for unplanned ICU transfers.
method Markov Decision Process model to predict patient severity and optimize transfer policies.
result Robust policies are more aggressive in transferring patients than nominal policies, improving overall patient care.
EEGNN improves graph neural networks by enhancing graph structure.
problem Mis-simplification of graphs by removing self-loops and unweighted edges reduces GNN performance.
method Proposes EEGNN framework using DMPGM for better graph structural information.
result EEGNN achieves significant performance improvement over baselines.
New approach measures systemic risk by absorbing shocks before financial systems deteriorate.
problem Systemic risk evaluation without considering initial shocks.
method Linearized DebtRank and spectral graph theory for localized and uniform shocks; Monte Carlo simulations for heterogeneous shocks.
result Explicit computation and clear visualization of financial distress onset.
Neural networks learn clean data patterns first, then noisy data, leading to improved performance initially but deteriorating later.
problem Improvement in prediction error on clean data during early training of neural networks with noisy labels.
method Theoretical analysis and experiments to explore the dynamics of gradient descent and the impact of clean and noisy data.
result Neural networks prioritize learning clean data patterns first, leading to improved performance initially but deteriorating later due to diminishing gradient dominance of clean samples over noisy ones.
The paper analyzes optimal timing for converting wealth into annuities in the presence of a mortality shock.
problem Optimal timing for converting retirement wealth into annuities under a mortality risk.
method Derives explicit closed-form solutions for value function and optimal stopping boundaries.
result The optimal strategy depends on the interplay between annuity attractiveness, investment returns, and bequest motives.
Proposes a stability evaluation criterion for learning models using distributional perturbations.
problem Ensuring reliable deployment of learning models in out-of-sample environments.
method Uses optimal transport discrepancy with moment constraints to quantify minimal perturbation required for model deterioration.
result Validates the practical utility of the stability evaluation criterion across various real-world applications.
In this paper a highly abstracted view on the historical development of Genetic Algorithms for the Traveling Salesman Problem is given. In a meta-data analysis three phases in the development can be distinguished. First exponential growth in interest till 1996 can be observed, growth stays linear till 2011 and after th…
Research uses activity analysis to identify mental health symptoms.
problem Identifying mental health symptoms using objective activity metrics.
method Proposes a framework for mHealth monitoring of psychiatric patients based on physical activity time series.
result Identifies distinct behavioural phenotypes and measures for mood assessment.
A monitoring procedure improves machine learning forecasts for digital platforms.
problem Maintaining accurate and stable forecasts for data streams at digital platforms.
method Developed a monitoring procedure to determine when to retrain machine learning algorithms.
result Monitor-based retraining produces accurate forecasts compared to benchmarks.
Neural network-based post-processing improves ensemble forecast sharpness
problem Reducing the width of central prediction intervals in ensemble forecasts
method Extending loss function with a penalty term
result 8.2%-12.5% reduction in width of central prediction interval
Study discovers rules linking patient symptoms to unplanned ICU transfers.
problem Identifying patients at risk for unplanned ICU transfers.
method Mixed-integer optimization approach to learn association rules.
result Significant rules discovered for each patient subgroup.
We consider convex SGD updates with a block-cyclic structure, i.e. where each cycle consists of a small number of blocks, each with many samples from a possibly different, block-specific, distribution. This situation arises, e.g., in Federated Learning where the mobile devices available for updates at different times d…
We propose a novel method for clustering data which is grounded in information-theoretic principles and requires no parametric assumptions. Previous attempts to use information theory to define clusters in an assumption-free way are based on maximizing mutual information between data and cluster labels. We demonstrate …
Research shows ESG signals lower exposure to market fragility during stress periods.
problem Market fragility often occurs together, and ESG is associated with reduced exposure.
method Monthly data on S&P 500 constituents from 2014 to 2025, analyzing downside returns, volatility, illiquidity, and cofragility states.
result A one-standard-deviation increase in ESG lowers the probability of severe cofragility by 0.92 percentage points during stress periods.
In practice, the data distribution at test time often differs, to a smaller or larger extent, from that of the original training data. Consequentially, the so-called source classifier, trained on the available labelled data, deteriorates on the test, or target, data. Domain adaptive classifiers aim to combat this probl…
Oil prices affect Russian banks' stability, with negative impacts from decreases.
problem The impact of international oil prices on Russian public banks' financial stability.
method Data from 17 Russian public banks (2008-2016), Pool Mean Group (PMG) estimator.
result An increase in international oil prices and price to book value ratio positively affects Russian public banks' stability in the long run, while negative shocks have the opposite effect.
We study the relationship between price spread, volatility and trading volume. We find that spread forms as a result of interplay between order liquidity and order impact. When trading volume is small adding more liquidity helps improve price accuracy and reduce spread, but after some point additional liquidity begins …
Many deep models have been recently proposed for anomaly detection. This paper presents comparison of selected generative deep models and classical anomaly detection methods on an extensive number of non--image benchmark datasets. We provide statistical comparison of the selected models, in many configurations, archite…
Nonparametric mixture models based on the Dirichlet process are an elegant alternative to finite models when the number of underlying components is unknown, but inference in such models can be slow. Existing attempts to parallelize inference in such models have relied on introducing approximations, which can lead to in…
Deep learning detects building defects from images.
problem Time-consuming, laborious, and expensive traditional building condition assessment.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) with class activation mapping (CAM) for object localisation.
result Robust model accurately detects and localises building defects.
Neural networks are prone to adversarial attacks. In general, such attacks deteriorate the quality of the input by either slightly modifying most of its pixels, or by occluding it with a patch. In this paper, we propose a method that keeps the image unchanged and only adds an adversarial framing on the border of the im…
Narrative disclosures in 10-K filings improve bankruptcy prediction beyond accounting ratios.
problem Traditional bankruptcy prediction models rely on accounting ratios, which may not capture early warning signals.
method Developed a PB Stress Score based on distress-specific language in 10-K narratives, evaluated against accounting and dictionary benchmarks.
result Adding the PB Stress Score increases AUC from 0.8323 to 0.9019 and improves top-decile bankruptcy capture from 44.12% to 64.71%.
Training examples are not all equally informative. Active learning strategies leverage this observation in order to massively reduce the number of examples that need to be labeled. We leverage the same observation to build a generic strategy for parallelizing learning algorithms. This strategy is effective because the …
In this paper we study the performance of the Projected Gradient Descent(PGD) algorithm for ℓp-constrained least squares problems that arise in the framework of Compressed Sensing. Relying on the Restricted Isometry Property, we provide convergence guarantees for this algorithm for the entire range of $0\leq p\…
Manually labeled corpora are expensive to create and often not available for low-resource languages or domains. Automatic labeling approaches are an alternative way to obtain labeled data in a quicker and cheaper way. However, these labels often contain more errors which can deteriorate a classifier's performance when …
The stochastic multi-armed bandit problem is well understood when the reward distributions are sub-Gaussian. In this paper we examine the bandit problem under the weaker assumption that the distributions have moments of order 1+ε, for some ε∈(0,1]. Surprisingly, moments of order 2 (i.e., finite variance) are suffi…
Develops a new fuzzy model using QPs and ewl2 regularization to improve local region behavior.
problem Inability of constant and linear functions to accurately describe local regions in fuzzy models.
method Applied Fuzzy C-Means for structure identification, used QPs as consequents, introduced ewl2 regularization.
result Improved model's ability to describe local regions without overfitting.
Hybrid continuous-discrete models naturally represent many real-world applications in robotics, finance, and environmental engineering. Inference with large-scale models is challenging because relational structures deteriorate rapidly during inference with observations. The main contribution of this paper is an efficie…
Improved Sparse Polyak for high-dimensional M-estimation with sparser solutions.
problem High-dimensional M-estimation problems with potential loss of sparsity and accuracy.
method Variant of Sparse Polyak with optimal thresholding operators.
result Retains desirable scaling properties while achieving sparser and more accurate solutions.