New algorithm improves asset ranking for better cross-sectional portfolios.
problem Sub-optimal ranking of assets in cross-sectional systematic strategies.
method Learning-to-rank algorithms to enhance portfolio construction.
result Modern machine learning ranking algorithms boost Sharpe Ratios by approximately threefold.
Unified model learns from both time-series and cross-sectional momentum features.
problem Separate time-series and cross-sectional momentum strategies do not consider concurrent relationships.
method Spatio-Temporal Momentum strategies using neural networks to combine both types of momentum.
result Simple neural network with single fully connected layer generates trading signals for all assets.
Enhanced trend-following strategy using network momentum for commodity futures.
problem Improving systematic trend-following in commodity futures markets.
method Combines univariate and cross-sectional trend indicators, including network momentum.
result Statistically significant improvements in portfolio performance metrics.
ChatGPT improves momentum strategies by analyzing news data.
problem Improving risk-adjusted returns in systematic investing.
method Combining LLMs with daily equity returns and news data to predict stock momentum.
result LLM-enhanced momentum strategies outperform benchmarks in Sharpe and Sortino ratios.
High-performing equity factor with Sharpe ratio above 13 out-of-sample.
problem Hidden cross-sectional predictability in stock returns.
method Regime-conditional signal activation combining value and short-term reversal signals.
result Annualized returns of 158.6% with 12.0% volatility, strong performance out-of-sample.
LLMs struggle to outperform markets over long periods and diverse stocks.
problem Overstated effectiveness of LLM-based investing strategies due to biases.
method FINSABER framework for systematic backtests over two decades and 100+ symbols.
result Previously reported LLM advantages deteriorate significantly under broader evaluation.
DINs use deep learning to optimize portfolio Sharpe ratio without manual feature engineering.
problem Optimizing Sharpe ratio for entire portfolios without manual feature engineering.
method Fully data-driven feature extraction from daily price returns, balancing turnover and systemic risk.
result DINs outperform traditional TS and CS benchmarks across various asset classes and transaction costs.
The composition of natural liquidity has been changing over time. An analysis of intraday volumes for the S&P500 constituent stocks illustrates that (i) volume surprises, i.e., deviations from their respective forecasts, are correlated across stocks, and (ii) this correlation increases during the last few hours of the …
Improved nuclear cross section fitting with weighted Levenberg-Marquardt method.
problem Challenging optimization in multichannel nuclear cross section data.
method Weighted Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Fisher Information Metric.
result More physically consistent fits for raw and smoothed datasets.
Measures strategy durability through minimum regime performance, revealing trade-offs between efficiency and resilience.
problem Systematic investing strategies are vulnerable to regime changes, affecting their effectiveness and performance.
method Introduces minimum regime performance (MRP) to quantify the durability of systematic strategies, capturing how performance deteriorates under changing market conditions.
result Higher long-term Sharpe ratios do not always correlate with higher MRP, highlighting a new dimension of portfolio fragility.
Method for factor analysis in short panels without assuming sphericity or Gaussianity.
problem Factor analysis in short panels without assuming sphericity or Gaussianity.
method Pseudo maximum likelihood method and asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant test.
result Systematic risk explains a large part of cross-sectional total variance in bear markets but is not spanned by observed factors.
New theory for PCA under weak latent factors, improving inference and testing.
problem Statistical inference for PCA with weak latent factors and cross-sectional dependence.
method Comprehensive estimation and inference theory for PCA under nearly minimal factor strength, non-asymptotic.
result Asymptotic normality of PCA-based estimator for N≍T with SNR growth rate. Fused Encoder Networks improve momentum strategies on crypto data.
problem Deploying momentum strategies on crypto data with limited samples leads to over-fitted models.
method Hybrid transfer learning model combining source and target datasets.
result Fused Encoder Networks outperform classical momentum strategies and benchmarks.
QuantNet learns global market trends to improve trading strategies.
problem Developing global trading strategies from multiple markets' data.
method QuantNet integrates transfer and meta-learning to learn market-agnostic trends and market-specific strategies.
result QuantNet outperformed top baseline strategies by 51% Sharpe and 69% Calmar ratios.
Enhances currency strategy Sharpe ratio by 30% using context-aware Learning to Rank.
problem Sub-optimal ranking of assets during critical market periods.
method Context-aware Learning to Rank model based on Transformer architecture.
result Significantly improves Sharpe ratio and various performance metrics.
The study proposes a framework to assess sustainability of firms using fund-level classifications and portfolio holdings.
problem To capture market-based sustainability assessments of firms.
method Exploiting fund-level sustainability classifications and granular portfolio holdings to construct Market-Implied Sustainability (MIS) scores.
result MIS scores capture sustainability dimensions different from conventional ESG ratings and improve portfolio performance.
Optimizes large stock order execution with LSTM neural networks.
problem Minimizing transaction costs in large stock order execution.
method Trained LSTM neural network to minimize transaction costs.
result LSTM strategy outperforms TWAP and VWAP strategies.
This paper evaluates various loss functions for Transformer models in stock ranking.
problem Evaluating loss functions for Transformer models in stock ranking.
method Systematic evaluation of advanced loss functions (pointwise, pairwise, listwise) on S&P 500 data.
result Different loss functions impact a model's ability to discern profitable relative orderings among assets.
The aim of this work is to create systematic trading strategies built upon several financial crisis indicators based on the spectral properties of market dynamics. Within the limitations of our framework and data, we will demonstrate that our systematic trading strategies are able to make money, not as a result of pure…
ReSGA model improves VaR and ES forecasting with millions of parameters.
problem Limited parameter models are vulnerable to big data.
method Retrieval-enhanced self-grouping autoencoder (ReSGA) with millions of parameters.
result ReSGA outperforms competitors in VaR and ES forecasting.
The paper defines cross-section continuity for angular momentum definitions and finds the CWY definition valid.
problem Defining angular momentum at null infinity and ensuring its continuity across different cross-sections.
method Introducing cross-section continuity as a criterion and proving it for specific angular momentum definitions.
result The Chen-Wang-Yau definition of angular momentum satisfies cross-section continuity, while the Compere-Nichols modification does not.
We resolve parts (A) and (B) of Problem 1.100 from Kirby's list by showing that many nontrivial links arise as cross-sections of unknotted holomorphic disks in the four-ball. The techniques can be used to produce unknotted ribbon surfaces with prescribed cross-sections, including unknotted Lagrangian disks with nontriv…
DeePM is a deep-learning portfolio manager that outperforms classical strategies in diversified futures markets.
problem Maximizing risk-adjusted returns in financial markets with low signal-to-noise ratios and asynchronous data.
method Structured deep learning with a Directed Delay mechanism, Macroeconomic Graph Prior, and distributionally robust optimization.
result DeePM achieves net risk-adjusted returns roughly twice those of classical strategies and passive benchmarks.
The study identifies flat manifolds with unique cusp cross-sections in arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.
problem Characterizing flat manifolds that have unique cusp cross-sections in arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.
method Algebraic characterization of cusp cross-sections in arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.
result Construction of flat manifolds with unique cusp cross-sections and proof of their existence in all dimensions n≥32. Model liquidity premia using a risk-sharing economy with quadratic costs.
problem Understanding the cross-section of liquidity premia earned by assets with different trading costs.
method Developed a risk-sharing economy model with quadratic transaction costs, leading to matrix-valued Riccati equations for equilibrium.
result Calibrated model to time series data, revealing liquidity premia across assets with varying trading costs.
Set-Sequence model learns cross-sectional dynamics directly from time series data.
problem Predicting large cross-sections of time series data with latent cross-sectional dynamics.
method A model that learns cross-sectional structure directly, enhancing expressivity and eliminating manual feature engineering.
result Significantly outperforms strong baselines in equity portfolio optimization and loan risk prediction.
Conditions for flat manifolds as cusp cross-sections in arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.
problem Determining when a flat manifold can be a cusp cross-section in arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.
method Analyzing rational representations of holonomy groups and quasi-arithmetic manifolds.
result Conditions for a flat manifold to appear as a cusp cross-section in every commensurability class of arithmetic hyperbolic manifolds.
TQA improves prediction intervals for time series data by adjusting quantiles for both cross-sectional and longitudinal coverage.
problem Constructing reliable prediction intervals for cross-sectional time series data.
method Temporal Quantile Adjustment (TQA) method that adjusts the quantile in Conformal Prediction to account for both cross-sectional and longitudinal coverage.
result TQA improves longitudinal coverage while preserving cross-sectional coverage, as validated through extensive experimentation.
The paper evaluates forecast accuracy of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections.
problem Forecast evaluation of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections of financial data.
method Equal predictive accuracy testing procedures, LASSO shrinkage, measurement error correction, cross-sectional jump component measures.
result The augmented HAR model outperforms the standard HAR model in forecasting realized volatility.
CPTD improves prediction intervals in time series regression with cross-sectional data.
problem Constructing valid prediction intervals in time series regression with a cross-section.
method Conformal Prediction with Temporal Dependence (CPTD) for post-hoc, light-weight approach.
result CPTD maintains cross-sectional validity while improving longitudinal coverage.
Machine learning forecasts show bias at long horizons, contrary to standard tests.
problem Forecast efficiency tests misinterpret machine learning performance.
method Theoretical and empirical analysis of regularization and measurement noise.
result Machine learning forecasts exhibit overreaction at longer horizons, not bias.
Study on stability of surfaces in null cones under area-preserving variations.
problem Investigating stability of spacelike cross sections of null cones.
method Area-preserving variations, Hawking energy analysis, spherical cross sections.
result Only round spheres are stable cross sections of the standard Minkowski lightcone.
This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a quantile spectral beta representation of risk based on the decomposition of cova…
This work classifies strategies to incorporate spatial dependence in Random Forest models.
problem Spatial and temporal dependence in environmental data not adequately modeled by standard Random Forest.
method Taxonomy and systematic review of strategies to adjust Random Forest for spatially dependent data.
result 32 scientific documents reviewed, providing a comprehensive classification of strategies.
Publication bias skews asset pricing research findings.
problem Bias in sharing and publishing research findings.
method Meta-studies and empirical Bayes corrections.
result Publication bias effects are minimal and not dominant.
Diffolio uses a diffusion model for multivariate financial forecasting and portfolio construction.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate financial time-series with complex cross-sectional dependencies.
method Diffolio employs a denoising network with hierarchical attention architecture, incorporating asset-level and market-level layers and a correlation-guided regularizer.
result Diffolio outperforms various probabilistic forecasting baselines in multivariate forecasting accuracy and portfolio performance.
Short-term trend-following has stopped delivering profits since 2009, especially on smaller market ticks.
problem The profitability of short-term trend-following has declined since 2009.
method Cross-sectional analysis of 100 liquid futures contracts from 1995-2025, evaluating four explanations.
result The decline in short-term trend-following profits is linked to smaller market ticks, not asset class or liquidity.
Study quantifies events leading to Terra project failure in 2022.
problem Terra project's fragility and dependency on Anchor protocol.
method Systematic review of social media news, hourly and transaction data analysis, network science techniques.
result Identified trigger events and analyzed dependency structures using network science.
Motivated by a question of Hirzebruch on the possible topological types of cusp cross-sections of Hilbert modular varieties, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for a manifold M to be diffeomorphic to a cusp cross-section of a Hilbert modular variety. Specialized to Hilbert modular surfaces, this proves that e…
This study examines yield aggregators in DeFi, summarizing strategies and analyzing performance.
problem Understanding and optimizing yield farming strategies in DeFi.
method Summarizes yield farming protocols and tokens, analyzes performance through simulations and empirical data.
result Plausible connection between data anomalies and historical events in yield aggregators.
Study evaluates hedging strategies for S&P500 index options.
problem Improving returns and risk management in index option portfolios.
method Compared Black-Scholes-Merton and Variance-Gamma models for hedging strategies.
result Systematic option-writing strategies can yield superior returns compared to buy-and-hold benchmarks.
Deep learning predicts cross-sectional stock prices for practical investment.
problem Predicting stock prices using cross-sectional factors.
method Deep learning model for daily stock price prediction.
result Profitable investment framework demonstrated in Japanese stock market.
Fine-tunes LLMs to correct bias in predictions.
problem LLMs exhibit bias in predictions from data.
method Supervised fine-tuning with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA).
result Fine-tuning corrects bias in both controlled and real-world settings.
Study evaluates three position sizing methods for put-writing on S&P 500 Index options.
problem Underdeveloped practical implementation of short-dated volatility-selling strategies.
method Kelly criterion, VIX-based volatility scaling, hybrid method.
result Ultra-short-dated, out-of-the-money options deliver superior risk-adjusted returns.
Classifies Nil 3-manifolds as cross-sections of complex hyperbolic surfaces.
problem Identifying Nil 3-manifolds as cross-sections of complex hyperbolic surfaces.
method Comprehensive classification of commensurability classes of cusped, arithmetic, and non-arithmetic complex hyperbolic 2-manifolds.
result Some Nil 3-manifolds are cross-sections in every commensurability class, while others are cross-sections in only one.
Machine learning portfolios perform well with simple imputation of missing data.
problem Handling missing values in machine learning portfolios constructed from cross-sectional return predictors.
method Simple imputation with cross-sectional means compared to rigorous expectation-maximization methods.
result Simple imputation performs well due to the structure of missing data.
Simple bounds show most cross-sectional predictability findings are likely true.
problem Determining the validity of cross-sectional return predictability findings.
method Developed simple and intuitive bounds on the false discovery rate (FDR).
result Bounds show the FDR is small, indicating most findings are likely true.
MFIN networks improve crypto trading with multiple features.
problem Selecting and processing multiple features for effective trading.
method End-to-end framework using Multi-Factor Inception Networks (MFINs).
result MFINs learn uncorrelated, higher-Sharpe strategies not captured by traditional factors.