A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Transformer architecture improved with credibility mechanism for better model performance.
New auction design uses statistical learning to reduce costs and improve fairness.
It is important to collect credible training samples for building data-intensive learning systems (e.g., a deep learning system). Asking people to report complex distribution , though theoretically viable, is challenging in practice. This is primarily due to the cognitive loads required for human agents t…
Paper introduces exact credible sets for classification problems.
The paper tests the credibility of public and private surveys using linear regression and differential privacy.
The paper proposes a method to assess survey data credibility without needing many samples, regardless of data dimension.
Online reviews provide viewpoints on the strengths and shortcomings of products/services, influencing potential customers' purchasing decisions. However, the proliferation of non-credible reviews -- either fake (promoting/ demoting an item), incompetent (involving irrelevant aspects), or biased -- entails the problem o…
Credibility theory provides tools to obtain better estimates by combining individual data with sample information. We apply the Credibility theory to a Uniform distribution that is used in testing the reliability of forecasting an interest rate for long term horizons. Such empirical exercise is asked by Regulators (CRR…
CP4SBI improves the calibration of credible sets in SBI models.
We propose a continuum model for the description of buyer and seller dynamics in an Internet market. The relevant variables are the research effort of buyers and the sellers' reputation building process. We show that, if a commercial web-site gives consumers the possibility to rate credibly sellers they bargained with,…
This project demonstrated a methodology to estimating cooperate credibility with a Natural Language Processing approach. As cooperate transparency impacts both the credibility and possible future earnings of the firm, it is an important factor to be considered by banks and investors on risk assessments of listed firms.…
In many settings, it is important that a model be capable of providing reasons for its predictions (i.e., the model must be interpretable). However, the model's reasoning may not conform with well-established knowledge. In such cases, while interpretable, the model lacks \textit{credibility}. In this work, we formally …
In situations like tax declarations or analyzes of household budgets we would like to automatically evaluate credibility of exogenous variable (declared income) based on some available (endogenous) variables - we want to build a model and train it on provided data sample to predict (conditional) probability distributio…
Develops a new method for sampling from Bayesian credible sets using deep generative quantile learning.
New method for credible intervals of Covid19 reproduction number.
The paper analyzes uncertainty quantification in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
Recent explainability related studies have shown that state-of-the-art DNNs do not always adopt correct evidences to make decisions. It not only hampers their generalization but also makes them less likely to be trusted by end-users. In pursuit of developing more credible DNNs, in this paper we propose CREX, which enco…
Media seems to have become more partisan, often providing a biased coverage of news catering to the interest of specific groups. It is therefore essential to identify credible information content that provides an objective narrative of an event. News communities such as digg, reddit, or newstrust offer recommendations,…
Paper introduces SCI to distinguish market signals from coordination.
One of the major hurdles preventing the full exploitation of information from online communities is the widespread concern regarding the quality and credibility of user-contributed content. Prior works in this domain operate on a static snapshot of the community, making strong assumptions about the structure of the dat…
Online health communities are a valuable source of information for patients and physicians. However, such user-generated resources are often plagued by inaccuracies and misinformation. In this work we propose a method for automatically establishing the credibility of user-generated medical statements and the trustworth…
BIGUE algorithm provides credible intervals for hyperbolic network embeddings.
Bayesian method improves estimation of unseen species.
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful interpolation technique due to its flexibility in capturing non-linearity. In this paper, we provide a general framework for understanding the frequentist coverage of point-wise and simultaneous Bayesian credible sets in GP regression. As an intermediate result, we develop…
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
A mechanism to share risks and costs with guarantees against extreme outcomes.
Purpose: Malicious web domain identification is of significant importance to the security protection of Internet users. With online credibility and performance data, this paper aims to investigate the use of machine learning tech-niques for malicious web domain identification by considering the class imbalance issue (i…
There is considerable debate whether the domestic political institutions (specifically, the country s level of democracy) of the host developing country toward foreign investors are effective in establishing the credibility of commitments are still underway, researchers have also analyzed the effect of international in…
Generative sampler learns velocity fields for efficient posterior inference.
Bayesian principles improve neural additive models for better feature selection and uncertainty.
Bayesian inference engines improve density estimation accuracy and scalability.
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challeng…
Most machine learning classifiers give predictions for new examples accurately, yet without indicating how trustworthy predictions are. In the medical domain, this hampers their integration in decision support systems, which could be useful in the clinical practice. We use a supervised learning approach that combines E…
TabMGP uses a martingale posterior with TabPFN to estimate uncertainty in tabular data.
The paper proposes a fair and private decentralized deep learning framework.
Bayesian method for estimating ATE with robustness to model misspecification.
Bayesian inference corrected for bias in high-dimensional models.
New pricing framework allocates costs of operating reserves and transmission.
BCPO optimizes offline RL policies by converting uncertainty into conservative bounds.
No policy can simultaneously be fully autonomous, optimally calibrated, and helpful, proving a trilemma.
Simulation workflow is a top-level model for the design and control of simulation process. It connects multiple simulation components with time and interaction restrictions to form a complete simulation system. Before the construction and evaluation of the component models, the validation of upper-layer simulation work…
New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use of approximate inference, Bayesian uncertainty estimates are often inaccurate -…
A novel model-selection method for dynamic networks using synthetic data.
This work develops rigorous theoretical basis for the fact that deep Bayesian neural network (BNN) is an effective tool for high-dimensional variable selection with rigorous uncertainty quantification. We develop new Bayesian non-parametric theorems to show that a properly configured deep BNN (1) learns the variable im…
Adapts Gaussian process surrogate evaluation with conformal prediction for better coverage guarantees.
Randomized predictions ensure fair and accurate individual calibration in machine learning.
Bayesian framework improves LLM evaluation stability and transparency.