A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Flow Matching for count data improves sample quality and efficiency.
We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time points and only the numbers of occurrences of the events between subsequent observati…
Develops a method to model multivariate count processes with Cox processes and shot noise intensities.
We define a family of probability distributions for random count matrices with a potentially unbounded number of rows and columns. The three distributions we consider are derived from the gamma-Poisson, gamma-negative binomial, and beta-negative binomial processes. Because the models lead to closed-form Gibbs sampling …
Proposes a new model to better handle overdispersed count time series.
Counting objects in digital images is a process that should be replaced by machines. This tedious task is time consuming and prone to errors due to fatigue of human annotators. The goal is to have a system that takes as input an image and returns a count of the objects inside and justification for the prediction in the…
Enhances count process modelling with Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson process.
The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process f…
The paper improves count data regression models for overdispersed data.
ENTED efficiently decomposes binary and count tensors using nonparametric Gaussian processes.
Panel count data describes aggregated counts of recurrent events observed at discrete time points. To understand dynamics of health behaviors, the field of quantitative behavioral research has evolved to increasingly rely upon panel count data collected via multiple self reports, for example, about frequencies of smoki…
We propose scalable methods to execute counting queries in machine learning applications. To achieve memory and computational efficiency, we abstract counting queries and their context such that the counts can be aggregated as a stream. We demonstrate performance and scalability of the resulting approach on random quer…
We consider a self-exciting counting process, the parameters of which depend on a hidden finite-state Markov chain. We derive the optimal filter and smoother for the hidden chain based on observation of the jump process. This filter is in closed form and is finite dimensional. We demonstrate the performance of this fil…
This chapter is an attempt to present a mathematical theory of compound fractional Poisson processes. The chapter begins with the characterization of a well-known Lévy process: The compound Poisson process. The semi-Markov extension of the compound Poisson process naturally leads to the compound fractional Poisson proc…
We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The excitation kernel of the counting process depends on the state process that, reciprocally…
Bayesian models forecast COVID-19 hospitalizations at single sites.
A gamma process dynamic Poisson factor analysis model is proposed to factorize a dynamic count matrix, whose columns are sequentially observed count vectors. The model builds a novel Markov chain that sends the latent gamma random variables at time as the shape parameters of those at time , which are linked …
Develops a test for conditional local independence of counting processes.
Multivariate count data are defined as the number of items of different categories issued from sampling within a population, which individuals are grouped into categories. The analysis of multivariate count data is a recurrent and crucial issue in numerous modelling problems, particularly in the fields of biology and e…
Automatically counts microglial cells in rat spinal cord images, providing precise counts and uncertainty estimates.
This paper proposes learning to jump for generative modeling of sparse, skewed, heavy-tailed data.
Every time drivers take to the road, and with each mile that they drive, exposes themselves and others to the risk of an accident. Insurance premiums are only weakly linked to mileage, however, and have lump-sum characteristics largely. The result is too much driving, and too many accidents. In this paper, we introduce…
Better neural arithmetic logic units improve cell counting model generalization.
We introduce a methodology for efficient monitoring of processes running on hosts in a corporate network. The methodology is based on collecting streams of system calls produced by all or selected processes on the hosts, and sending them over the network to a monitoring server, where machine learning algorithms are use…
Warped DLMs improve forecasting for count time series.
The beta-negative binomial process (BNBP), an integer-valued stochastic process, is employed to partition a count vector into a latent random count matrix. As the marginal probability distribution of the BNBP that governs the exchangeable random partitions of grouped data has not yet been developed, current inference f…
Proposes a method to handle sparse multiway count data with false zeros using zero-truncated Poisson regression.
Transformer learns to estimate negative binomial parameters efficiently.
Bayesian nonparametric CMS improves frequency estimation for power-law data.
Bayesian method estimates coverage from sketching imperfect data.
New method counts boundary pieces in ReLU classifiers for better complexity measure.
PHIBP models complex microbiome data with shared parameters.
Study growth patterns in random networks using i.i.d. perturbations.
We tackle anomaly detection in sparse time series data.
We propose a novel model for temporal detection and localization which allows the training of deep neural networks using only counts of event occurrences as training labels. This powerful weakly-supervised framework alleviates the burden of the imprecise and time-consuming process of annotating event locations in tempo…
odeN efficiently approximates multiple temporal motifs in large networks.
New model prices options with complex market data structures.
Semiparametric STAR model improves mental health data analysis.
The study examines numerical aspects of Karhunen-Loève expansions for stochastic processes.
The fractional Poisson process (FPP) is a counting process with independent and identically distributed inter-event times following the Mittag-Leffler distribution. This process is very useful in several fields of applied and theoretical physics including models for anomalous diffusion. Contrary to the well-known Poiss…
Non-Markovian point process shows power-law scaling, similar to nonlinear Markovian process.
Counting tripods on a flat torus using lattice point counting.
In this paper, we present neuro-robotics models with a deep artificial neural network capable of generating finger counting positions and number estimation. We first train the model in an unsupervised manner where each layer is treated as a Restricted Boltzmann Machine or an autoencoder. Such a model is further trained…
We develop a model in which interactions between nodes of a dynamic network are counted by non homogeneous Poisson processes. In a block modelling perspective, nodes belong to hidden clusters (whose number is unknown) and the intensity functions of the counting processes only depend on the clusters of nodes. In order t…
New test detects differences in heterogeneous datasets.
A beta-negative binomial (BNB) process is proposed, leading to a beta-gamma-Poisson process, which may be viewed as a "multi-scoop" generalization of the beta-Bernoulli process. The BNB process is augmented into a beta-gamma-gamma-Poisson hierarchical structure, and applied as a nonparametric Bayesian prior for an infi…
Accelerometer measurements are the prime type of sensor information most think of when seeking to measure physical activity. On the market, there are many fitness measuring devices which aim to track calories burned and steps counted through the use of accelerometers. These measurements, though good enough for the aver…
Given a stationary point process, an intensity burst is defined as a short time period during which the number of counts is larger than the typical count rate. It might signal a local non-stationarity or the presence of an external perturbation to the system. In this paper we propose a novel procedure for the detection…