arXiv research

In this paper we propose a semi-Markov modulated model of interest rates. We assume that the switching process is a semi-Markov process with finite state space E and the modulated process is a diffusive process. We derive recursive equations for the higher order moments of the discount factor and we describe a Monte Ca…

We study optimal investment strategies that maximize expected utility from consumption and terminal wealth in a pure-jump asset price model with Markov-modulated (regime switching) jump-size distributions. We give sufficient conditions for existence of optimal policies and find closed-form expressions for the optimal v…

Study of Markov-modulated affine processes for richer models in finance.

Enhances count process modelling with Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson process.

This project attempts to address the problem of asset pricing in a financial market, where the interest rates and volatilities exhibit regime switching. This is an extension of the Black-Scholes model. Studies of Markov-modulated regime switching models have been well-documented. This project extends that notion to a c…

We have developed a statistical technique to test the model assumption of binary regime switching extension of the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model by proposing a new discriminating statistics. Given a time series data, we have identified an admissible class of the regime switching candidate models for the statist…

Study long-term behavior of semi-Markov modulated processes using integral functions.

New models optimize quotes for automated market makers considering various price dynamics and demand variability.

Proposes MLEs for MMJDM with EM-algorithm.

The study revisits portfolio diversification by relaxing assumptions for skewed, multi-regime, and leptokurtic asset returns.

Model detects market anomalies using a Hawkes process with hidden Markov chain.

In this article, we consider a Markov-modulated model with jumps for short rate dynamics. We obtain closed formulas for the term structure and forward rates using the properties of the jump-telegraph process and the expectation hypothesis. The results are compared with the numerical solution of the corresponding partia…

Extends micro-price concept to RFQ markets for fair pricing.

Optimal dividends strategy in a two-state regime-switching environment.

Optimal investment strategy with expert opinions in uncertain conditions.

This paper includes an original self contained proof of well-posedness of an initial-boundary value problem involving a non-local parabolic PDE which naturally arises in the study of derivative pricing in a generalized market model. We call this market model a semi-Markov modulated market. Although a wellposedness resu…

We consider a self-exciting counting process, the parameters of which depend on a hidden finite-state Markov chain. We derive the optimal filter and smoother for the hidden chain based on observation of the jump process. This filter is in closed form and is finite dimensional. We demonstrate the performance of this fil…

This paper studies the pricing of European-style Asian options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are assumed to follow a Markov- modulated geometric Brownian motion; that is, the appreciation rate and the volatility of the underlying risky asset depend on unobservable states of the economy described…

This paper proposes swaps on two important new measures of generalized variance, namely the maximum eigen-value and trace of the covariance matrix of the assets involved. We price these generalized variance swaps for financial markets with Markov-modulated volatilities. We consider multiple assets in the portfolio for …

This paper investigates the pricing of European-style lookback options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are assumed to follow a Markov-modulated Geo-metric Brownian motion; that is, the appreciation rate and the volatility of the underlying risky asset depend on unobservable states of the economy d…

This paper includes a proof of well-posedness of an initial-boundary value problem involving a system of degenerate non-local parabolic PDE which naturally arises in the study of derivative pricing in a generalized market model. In a semi-Markov modulated GBM model the locally risk minimizing price function satisfies a…

This study compares VaR-based portfolio insurance with CPPI in a regime-switching market.

This article studies a portfolio optimization problem, where the market consisting of several stocks is modeled by a multi-dimensional jump-diffusion process with age-dependent semi-Markov modulated coefficients. We study risk sensitive portfolio optimization on the finite time horizon. We study the problem by using a …

This paper first describes a class of uncertain stochastic control systems with Markovian switching, and derives an Itô-Liu formula for Markov-modulated processes. And we characterize an optimal control law, which satisfies the generalized Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation with Markovian switching. Then, by using …

We study optimal trade execution strategies in financial markets with discrete order flow. The agent has a finite liquidation horizon and must minimize price impact given a random number of incoming trade counterparties. Assuming that the order flow $N$ is given by a Poisson process, we give a full analysis of the prop…

We study the problem of dynamically trading futures in a regime-switching market. Modeling the underlying asset price as a Markov-modulated diffusion process, we present a utility maximization approach to determine the optimal futures trading strategy. This leads to the analysis of the associated system of Hamilton-Jac…

Using a Levy process we generalize formulas in Bo et al.(2010) for the Esscher transform parameters for the log-normal distribution which ensure the martingale condition holds for the discounted foreign exchange rate. Using these values of the parameters we find a risk-neural measure and provide new formulas for the di…

The paper proposes a class of financial market models which are based on inhomogeneous telegraph processes and jump diffusions with alternating volatilities. It is assumed that the jumps occur when the tendencies and volatilities are switching. We argue that such a model captures well the stock price dynamics under per…

We consider a continuous-time model for inventory management with Markov modulated non-stationary demands. We introduce active learning by assuming that the state of the world is unobserved and must be inferred by the manager. We also assume that demands are observed only when they are completely met. We first derive t…

In this work, we consider the optimal portfolio selection problem under hard constraints on trading volume amounts when the dynamics of the risky asset returns are governed by a discrete-time approximation of the Markov-modulated geometric Brownian motion. The states of Markov chain are interpreted as the states of an …

We study a dynamic portfolio optimization problem related to convergence trading, which is an investment strategy that exploits temporary mispricing by simultaneously buying relatively underpriced assets and selling short relatively overpriced ones with the expectation that their prices converge in the future. We build…

Two new models for volatility in Markov-switching environments capture financial time-series properties.

We derived similar to Bo et al. (2010) results but in the case when the dynamics of the FX rate is driven by a general Merton jump-diffusion process. The main results of our paper are as follows: 1) formulas for the Esscher transform parameters which ensure that the martingale condition for the discounted foreign excha…

This paper studies pricing derivatives in an age-dependent semi-Markov modulated market. We consider a financial market where the asset price dynamics follow a regime switching geometric Brownian motion model in which the coefficients depend on finitely many age-dependent semi-Markov processes. We further allow the vol…

We consider a portfolio optimization problem in a defaultable market with finitely-many economical regimes, where the investor can dynamically allocate her wealth among a defaultable bond, a stock, and a money market account. The market coefficients are assumed to depend on the market regime in place, which is modeled …

We consider a stochastic factor financial model where the asset price process and the process for the stochastic factor depend on an observable Markov chain and exhibit an affine structure. We are faced with a finite time investment horizon and derive optimal dynamic investment strategies that maximize the investor's e…

Novel method recovers market regime changes from option prices.

Model captures external influences through random parameters and regime switching.