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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for counter-factual reasoning

New methods for explaining Random Forest predictions using case-based reasoning.

problem Lack of explainability for black-box machine learning models like Random Forests.
method Extracting distance metric from Random Forests to identify prototypes, critics, counter-factuals, and semi-factuals.
result Identified special points from training datasets to explain Random Forest predictions.

ARCHER counters bias in HER to improve sample efficiency in RL.

problem Sample inefficiency in deep RL due to biased replay buffer experiences.
method ARCHER extends HER with aggressive hindsight rewards to counter bias.
result ARCHER increases sample efficiency in RL applications with limited computing budget.

LaTRO optimizes latent reasoning in LLMs without external reward.

problem Training LLMs to perform complex reasoning tasks.
method Formulates reasoning as latent distribution sampling and optimizes via variational approaches.
result LLMs improve reasoning and evaluation quality through self-improvement.

Auto-CEI improves LLM reasoning by balancing assertiveness and conservativeness.

problem Hallucinations and laziness in LLM reasoning tasks.
method Expert Iteration explores reasoning trajectories, guiding incorrect paths back on track and promoting appropriate 'I don't know' responses.
result Auto-CEI achieves superior alignment in logical reasoning, mathematics, and planning tasks.

A new method for math reasoning that allows for iterative correction.

problem Standard reasoning models commit to each token and cannot recover from early errors.
method Generative framework with latent thought vectors for iterative self-correction.
result 30 rethinking iterations surpass baselines with 15 times more parameters.

Transformers learn multi-step reasoning through gradient descent.

problem Understanding how transformers solve symbolic multi-step reasoning tasks.
method Theoretical analysis of gradient descent dynamics and multi-phase training.
result Trained one-layer transformers can solve both backward and forward reasoning tasks with generalization guarantees.

Early stopping methods reduce unnecessary reasoning steps in LLMs by monitoring uncertainty signals.

problem LLMs sometimes generate unnecessary reasoning steps, especially under uncertainty.
method Statistically principled early stopping methods that monitor uncertainty signals during generation.
result Uncertainty-aware early stopping improves efficiency and reliability in LLM reasoning, especially in math reasoning.

Achieving artificial visual reasoning - the ability to answer image-related questions which require a multi-step, high-level process - is an important step towards artificial general intelligence. This multi-modal task requires learning a question-dependent, structured reasoning process over images from language. Stand…

2017-07-10abs ↗pdf ↗

DAFT models attention as a dynamical system to make neural networks more interpretable.

problem Uninterpretable features learned by neural networks without human priors.
method DAFT models attention as a continuous dynamical system using neural ODEs.
result DAFT reduces the number of reasoning steps while maintaining similar performance.

FinTradeBench benchmarks LLMs for financial reasoning combining company fundamentals and market signals.

problem Challenges in evaluating financial reasoning models for LLMs.
method Developed a benchmark integrating company fundamentals and trading signals, using a calibration-then-scaling framework.
result Clear performance gap between LLMs, retrieval improves reasoning over textual fundamentals but not trading signals.

MultiVerse uses importance sampling for efficient causal reasoning in probabilistic programming.

problem Efficient causal reasoning in probabilistic models, especially counterfactual inference.
method Native implementation of importance sampling in probabilistic programming, optimizing inference through query structure.
result Significant optimisation of inference process through careful design choices and query structure consideration.

Hybrid framework injects TSLM insights into GRLM for robust time-series reasoning.

problem Lack of domain-specific knowledge in large language models for time-series reasoning.
method Hybrid knowledge-injection framework combining RLVR for efficient knowledge transfer.
result Consistently outperforms existing models by 7.9%-26.1% on multivariate time-series benchmarks.

Neural Logic Reasoning integrates deep learning and symbolic logic for better prediction tasks.

problem Lack of cognitive reasoning in deep neural networks limits their ability to solve complex prediction tasks.
method Proposes Logic-Integrated Neural Network (LINN) that learns logical operations and conducts propositional logical reasoning.
result LINN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art recommendation models in Top-K recommendation.

Forward-prediction models enhance physical reasoning, but only for specific tasks.

problem Improving physical reasoning in complex tasks involving many objects.
method Incorporated forward-prediction models into simple physical-reasoning agents and evaluated their performance on the PHYRE benchmark.
result Forward-prediction models improve physical-reasoning performance, especially on complex tasks, but generalization to new task templates is challenging.

Meta-reinforcement learning enables causal reasoning in complex environments.

problem Discovering causal structure in complex environments.
method Training a recurrent network with model-free reinforcement learning to solve problems with causal structure.
result The trained agent can perform causal reasoning in novel situations, select informative interventions, draw causal inferences, and make counterfactual predictions.

RACER optimizes LLM-as-judge accuracy with dynamic reasoning selection.

problem Balancing reasoning accuracy with computational cost in LLM-as-judge settings.
method Formulates routing as a constrained distributionally robust optimization problem, accounting for distribution shift via KL-divergence uncertainty set.
result RACER achieves superior accuracy-cost trade-offs under distribution shift.

VTA combines verbal and latent reasoning for accurate stock time-series forecasts.

problem Challenges in combining textual analysis with time-series data for financial forecasting.
method Converts stock price data into textual annotations, optimizes reasoning trace using inverse MSE, conditions time-series model outputs on reasoning attributes.
result VTA achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy and interpretable reasoning traces.

Neural networks struggle with reasoning tasks that require specialized structures.

problem Understanding why and when neural network structures generalize better.
method Developing a framework to characterize algorithmic alignment with reasoning tasks.
result Neural networks align better with dynamic programming (DP) for certain reasoning tasks.

Fractured Sampling improves LLM reasoning efficiency by truncating CoT trajectories.

problem Efficiently scaling reasoning in large language models with limited tokens.
method Integrating truncated Chain-of-Thought (CoT) with Fractured Sampling across multiple dimensions.
result Fractured Sampling achieves superior accuracy-cost trade-offs compared to full CoT.

Few-shot visual reasoning model learns analogical relationships from small data.

problem Training deep models on few samples for visual reasoning tasks.
method Meta-analogical contrastive learning to enforce structural similarity between training and test samples.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art on RAVEN dataset with scarce training data.

Study reveals how depth of reasoning affects generalization in models.

problem Understanding scaling behavior of generalization with CoT depth.
method Theoretical model of CoT in linear regression using random matrix theory.
result Sharp phase transition between exponential and polynomial improvement, saturation, and overthinking.

Enhances large language models' reasoning through simpler off-policy reinforcement learning.

problem Improving large language models' ability to reason and solve problems.
method EM Policy Gradient, optimizing expected return over reasoning trajectories using Expectation-Maximization (EM) optimization.
result Achieves comparable or slightly superior performance to state-of-the-art methods on reasoning datasets, with additional cognitive behaviors.

Self-supervised skip-tree training improves mathematical reasoning in language models.

problem Improving logical reasoning in language models for formal mathematics.
method Self-supervised language modeling on mathematical formulas, skip-tree task.
result Models trained on skip-tree task outperform standard models in mathematical reasoning tasks.

Theoretical work shows integrating coherent reasoning improves LLM performance and error correction.

problem Improving reasoning and error correction in large language models (LLMs) with few-shot prompting.
method Theoretical analysis and sensitivity experiments on transformer behavior with coherent reasoning and corrupted demonstrations.
result The transformer gains better error correction ability and more accurate predictions when coherent reasoning is integrated.

R2-B2 optimizes game interactions with recursive reasoning.

problem Optimizing interactions between boundedly rational agents with unknown payoff functions.
method Recursive Reasoning-Based Bayesian Optimization (R2-B2) for repeated games.
result R2-B2 achieves faster asymptotic convergence to no regret than non-recursive methods.

This work investigates how multi-round reasoning improves LLM performance.

problem Improving problem-solving abilities in complex tasks with LLMs.
method Investigates approximation, learnability, and generalization properties of multi-round auto-regressive models.
result Transformers with finite context windows are universal approximators for Turing-computable functions and can approximate any Turing-computable sequence-to-sequence function through multi-round reasoning.

MXGNet tackles visual reasoning tasks using graph neural networks.

problem Abstract reasoning, especially in the visual domain, is challenging for AI.
method Combines object-level representations, graph neural networks, and multiplex graphs.
result Achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on Euler Diagram Syllogisms and outperforms state-of-the-art models on RPM datasets.

This study explains RL training dynamics in LLMs, focusing on token-level optimization and reasoning pattern reshaping.

problem Understanding the training dynamics of RL in LLMs to improve their reasoning capabilities.
method Empirical analysis and theoretical modeling of RL training process, focusing on reasoning patterns and token optimization.
result RL primarily optimizes a sparse subset of critical tokens, reshaping reasoning pattern distributions and affecting model performance.

MAC Net improves natural language question answering with data-driven reasoning.

problem Natural Language Question Answering requires complex reasoning.
method MAC Net architecture separates memory and control for iterative reasoning.
result MAC Net achieves high efficiency and interpretability in NLP tasks.

The paper studies how search and distillation improve reasoning in large language models.

problem Improving reasoning capabilities of large language models.
method Viewing chain-of-thought generation as a metastable Markov process, proving benefits of search and distillation.
result Search protocol rewards sparse edges, reducing the expected number of steps to reach different clusters.

A conformal procedure improves CoT reasoning by aggregating reasoning paths and calibrating abstention rules.

problem Aggregation uncertainty in chain-of-thought reasoning makes correct answers less reliable.
method Introduces a conformal procedure for CoT reasoning that uses weighted score aggregation and abstention rules.
result Achieves higher selective accuracy with abstention, reducing confident-error rate.

This work identifies and mitigates reasoning shortcuts in Neuro-Symbolic models.

problem Neuro-Symbolic models can achieve high accuracy by using unintended concepts.
method Characterized reasoning shortcuts as unintended optima of the learning objective and identified four key conditions.
result Reasoning shortcuts are difficult to mitigate, casting doubt on NeSy solutions' trustworthiness and interpretability.

Trade-R1 bridges verifiable rewards to stochastic financial markets via process-level reasoning verification.

problem Extending RL to financial markets where rewards are verifiable but noisy.
method A verification method that transforms reasoning over financial documents into a structured RAG task, using a triangular consistency metric.
result DSR achieves superior cross-market generalization while maintaining reasoning consistency.