A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method for learning multidimensional CDFs using Archimedean copulas.
We explore xor function using copula representations and error surface projections.
CVAE learns disentangled and coupled representations without prior knowledge.
This paper clarifies vine copula structures using graph and matrix representations.
New copula models learn to forget dependencies, improving data representation.
We provide an integral representation for the (implied) copulas of dependent random variables in terms of their moment generating functions. The proof uses ideas from Fourier methods for option pricing. This representation can be used for a large class of models from mathematical finance, including Lévy and affine proc…
The cumulative distribution network (CDN) is a recently developed class of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) permitting a copula factorization, in which the CDF, rather than the density, is factored. Despite there being much recent interest within the machine learning community about copula representations, there h…
Proposes a copula-driven framework for multimodal learning.
New methods improve Archimax copula inference and sampling.
Characterizes symmetric Bernoulli distributions with minimal convex sums.
We derive upper and lower bounds on the expectation of under dependence uncertainty, i.e. when the marginal distributions of the random vector are known but their dependence structure is partially unknown. We solve the problem by providing improved \FH bounds on the copula o…
Bayesian VI copula models capture asymmetric intraday equity dependence.
This paper improves tail dependence analysis by introducing a path-based approach.
CopulaGNN integrates graph representational and correlational roles for better node-level predictions.
Sharp bounds found for various risk measures using generalized FGM copulas.
Deep latent variable models are powerful tools for representation learning. In this paper, we adopt the deep information bottleneck model, identify its shortcomings and propose a model that circumvents them. To this end, we apply a copula transformation which, by restoring the invariance properties of the information b…
We introduce the vine copula autoencoder (VCAE), a flexible generative model for high-dimensional distributions built in a straightforward three-step procedure. First, an autoencoder (AE) compresses the data into a lower dimensional representation. Second, the multivariate distribution of the encoded data is estimated …
Paper introduces MTCM to measure multivariate tail dependence.
Time series models generalize ARMA and ARFIMA with non-Gaussian dependence.
We investigate aspects of semimartingale decompositions, approximation and the martingale representation for multidimensional correlated Markov processes. A new interpretation of the dependence among processes is given using the martingale approach. We show that it is possible to represent, in both continuous and discr…
In this paper, we present a two-stage stochastic international portfolio optimisation model to find an optimal allocation for the combination of both assets and currency hedging positions. Our optimisation model allows a "currency overlay", or a deviation of currency exposure from asset exposure, to provide flexibility…
A vine copula model is a flexible high-dimensional dependence model which uses only bivariate building blocks. However, the number of possible configurations of a vine copula grows exponentially as the number of variables increases, making model selection a major challenge in development. In this work, we formulate a v…
Copula-based method generates synthetic populations from marginal distributions.
Copula models have become popular in different applications, including modeling shocks, in view of their ability to describe better the dependence concepts in stochastic systems. The class of maxmin copulas was recently introduced by Omladič and Ružić. It extends the well known classes of Marshall-Olkin and Marshall co…
MIND estimates mutual information from ordinal data without full distributional knowledge.
Levy copulas are the most general concept to capture jump dependence in multivariate Levy processes. They translate the intuition and many features of the copula concept into a time series setting. A challenge faced by both, distributional and Levy copulas, is to find flexible but still applicable models for higher dim…
A new copula, the checkerboard copula, maximizes entropy and preserves dependence.
This paper proposes a new class of copulas which characterize the set of all twice continuously differentiable copulas. We show that our proposed new class of copulas is a new generalized copula family that include not only asymmetric copulas but also all smooth copula families available in the current literature. Spea…
We provide a set of copulas that can be interpreted as having the negative extreme dependence. This set of copulas is interesting because it coincides with countermonotonic copula for a bivariate case, and more importantly, is shown to be minimal in concordance ordering in the sense that no copula exists which is stric…
This paper develops copula-based models for forecasting multivariate realized volatility.
We propose to use nonparametric Bernstein copulas as bivariate pair-copulas in high-dimensional vine models. The resulting smooth and nonparametric vine copulas completely obviate the error-prone need for choosing the pair-copulas from parametric copula families. By means of a simulation study and an empirical analysis…
Temporal coarse-graining of multi-sector default count data generates effective correlation matrices and rank copulas.
All too often measuring statistical dependencies between financial time series is reduced to a linear correlation coefficient. However this may not capture all facets of reality. We study empirical dependencies of daily stock returns by their pairwise copulas. Here we investigate particularly to which extent the non-st…
Copula is a powerful tool to model multivariate data. We propose the modelling of intraday financial returns of multiple assets through copula. The problem originates due to the asynchronous nature of intraday financial data. We propose a consistent estimator of the correlation coefficient in case of Elliptical copula …
Paper compares MCMC-based copula methods for exchange option pricing.
The \emph{Mixed-Membership Stochastic Blockmodel (MMSB)} is a popular framework for modeling social network relationships. It can fully exploit each individual node's participation (or membership) in a social structure. Despite its powerful representations, this model makes an assumption that the distributions of relat…
A new copula estimation method using classification.
The study models insurance dependence using Bernstein copulas.
In this paper we introduce some new copulas emerging from shock models. It was shown earlier that reflected maxmin copulas (RMM for short) are not just some specific singular copulas; they contain many important absolutely continuous copulas including the negative quadrant dependent part of the Eyraud-Farlie-Gumbel-Mor…
We introduce a new functional measure of tail dependence for weakly dependent (asymptotically independent) random vectors, termed weak tail dependence function. The new measure is defined at the level of copulas and we compute it for several copula families such as the Gaussian copula, copulas of a class of Gaussian mi…
Copulas allow to learn marginal distributions separately from the multivariate dependence structure (copula) that links them together into a density function. Vine factorizations ease the learning of high-dimensional copulas by constructing a hierarchy of conditional bivariate copulas. However, to simplify inference, i…
Paper uses a new copula to model risk aggregation and capital allocation.
The standard intensity-based approach for modeling defaults is generalized by making the deterministic term structure of the survival probability stochastic via a common jump process. The survival copula of the vector of default times is derived and it is shown to be explicit and of the functional form as dealt with in…
Study uses copulas and DCC-GARCH for multivariate risk analysis of VaR and CVaR.
A new copula minimizes distance between distributions.
Copulas have become an important tool in the modern best practice Enterprise Risk Management, often supplanting other approaches to modelling stochastic dependence. However, choosing the `right' copula is not an easy task, and the temptation to prefer a tractable rather than a meaningful candidate from the encompassing…
A new class of bivariate distributions is introduced that extends the Generalized Marshall-Olkin distributions of Li and Pellerey (2011). Their dependence structure is studied through the analysis of the copula functions that they induce. These copulas, that include as special cases the Generalized Marshall-Olkin copul…
When choosing the right copula for our data a key point is to distinguish the family that describes it at the best. In this respect, a better choice of the copulas could be obtained through the information about the (non)symmetry of the data. Exchangeability as a probability concept (first next to independence) has bee…