A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Unsupervised summarization generates novel reviews reflecting consensus opinions.
Study shows social reinforcement learning can lead to persistent but metastable polarization.
We propose a mathematical model for the word-of-mouth communications among stock investors through social networks and explore how the changes of the investors' social networks influence the stock price dynamics and vice versa. An investor is modeled as a Gaussian fuzzy set (a fuzzy opinion) with the center and standar…
Black-Scholes (BS) is the standard mathematical model for option pricing in financial markets. Option prices are calculated using an analytical formula whose main inputs are strike (at which price to exercise) and volatility. The BS framework assumes that volatility remains constant across all strikes, however, in prac…
Traditionally, most of the existing attribute learning methods are trained based on the consensus of annotations aggregated from a limited number of annotators. However, the consensus might fail in settings, especially when a wide spectrum of annotators with different interests and comprehension about the attribute wor…
Bayesian method predicts individual and crowd preferences from small data.
Subjective Logic (SL) is one of well-known belief models that can explicitly deal with uncertain opinions and infer unknown opinions based on a rich set of operators of fusing multiple opinions. Due to high simplicity and applicability, SL has been substantially applied in a variety of decision making in the area of cy…
In an increasingly polarized world, demagogues who reduce complexity down to simple arguments based on emotion are gaining in popularity. Are opinions and online discussions falling into demagoguery? In this work, we aim to provide computational tools to investigate this question and, by doing so, explore the nature an…
Computational Intelligence (CI) is a sub-branch of Artificial Intelligence paradigm focusing on the study of adaptive mechanisms to enable or facilitate intelligent behavior in complex and changing environments. There are several paradigms of CI [like artificial neural networks, evolutionary computations, swarm intelli…
The paper introduces a method to incorporate expert opinion on observable quantities into statistical models.
Analysis of opinion dynamics in social networks plays an important role in today's life. For applications such as predicting users' political preference, it is particularly important to be able to analyze the dynamics of competing opinions. While observing the evolution of polar opinions of a social network's users ove…
This paper investigates a financial market where returns depend on an unobservable Gaussian drift process. While the observation of returns yields information about the underlying drift, we also incorporate discrete-time expert opinions as an external source of information. For estimating the hidden drift it is crucial…
Study improves fair opinion aggregation by balancing voter attributes.
Opinions and beliefs determine the evolution of social systems. This is of particular interest in finance, as the increasing complexity of financial systems is coupled with information overload. Opinion formation, therefore, is not always the result of optimal information processing. On the contrary, agents are bounded…
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding …
New ML fairness measure excludes subjective opinions.
WISCA generates consensus explanations from conflicting model-agnostic interpretability methods.
Optimal investment strategy with expert opinions in uncertain conditions.
Crowd opinions in microblogs can predict event outcomes, matching with expert opinions.
Bayesian consensus improves accuracy of forecasts from miscalibrated sources.
The paper develops a method for inferring second opinions from experts using counterfactual inference.
A new method combines experts' opinions to train regression models with noisy labels.
Online reviews have become a vital source of information in purchasing a service (product). Opinion spammers manipulate reviews, affecting the overall perception of the service. A key challenge in detecting opinion spam is obtaining ground truth. Though there exists a large set of reviews online, only a few of them hav…
Bayesian framework for online consensus prediction from expert feedback.
In distributed machine learning, where agents collaboratively learn from diverse private data sets, there is a fundamental tension between consensus and optimality. In this paper, we build on recent algorithmic progresses in distributed deep learning to explore various consensus-optimality trade-offs over a fixed commu…
Paper analyzes convergence of decentralized algorithms with noise and bias.
CB-APM uses analyst consensus as a bottleneck to interpret stock returns.
Paper proves PI consensus algorithm converges exponentially under restricted secant inequality.
We use a cluster ensemble to determine the number of clusters, k, in a group of data. A consensus similarity matrix is formed from the ensemble using multiple algorithms and several values for k. A random walk is induced on the graph defined by the consensus matrix and the eigenvalues of the associated transition proba…
SINN combines social science and deep learning for predicting opinion dynamics.
To devise efficient solutions for approximating a mean partition in consensus clustering, Dimitriadou et al. [3] presented a necessary condition of optimality for a consensus function based on least square distances. We show that their result is pivotal for deriving interesting properties of consensus clustering beyond…
A new algorithm reduces communication in decentralized optimization.
Consensus clustering fuses diverse basic partitions (i.e., clustering results obtained from conventional clustering methods) into an integrated one, which has attracted increasing attention in both academic and industrial areas due to its robust and effective performance. Tremendous research efforts have been made to t…
We present here an introduction to Brainstorming approach, that was recently proposed as a consensus meta-learning technique, and used in several practical applications in bioinformatics and chemoinformatics. The consensus learning denotes heterogeneous theoretical classification method, where one trains an ensemble of…
Well-defined formal definitions for sentiment and opinion are extended to incorporate the necessary elements to provide a formal quantitative definition of reputation. This definition takes the form of a time-based index, in which each element is a function of a collection of opinions mined during a given time period. …
A novel framework for consensus clustering is presented which has the ability to determine both the number of clusters and a final solution using multiple algorithms. A consensus similarity matrix is formed from an ensemble using multiple algorithms and several values for k. A variety of dimension reduction techniques …
Adversaries can manipulate cooperative MARL networks.
We propose a simple model for the behaviour of longterm investors on a stock market, consisting of three particles, which represent the current price of the stock and the opinion of the buyers, respectively sellers, about the right trading price. As time evolves, both groups of traders update their opinions with respec…
Determinantal consensus clustering improves clustering robustness.
Estimates network structure from node potentials and edge flows under Gaussian injection statistics.
CoHiRF extends clustering methods to handle high-dimensional data efficiently.
This paper investigates optimal trading strategies in a financial market with multidimensional stock returns where the drift is an unobservable multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Information about the drift is obtained by observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide unbiased estimates on the cu…
IMPACC improves consensus clustering for bioinformatics data.
The dynamics of market prices is described as the evolution of opinions in the trading community regarding future market behavior. The price then is a function of the voting process of the market players in favor to raise or reduce the value of a stock. The model presented in this paper is suited for pricing of options…
The distribution of price returns for a class of uncorrelated diffusive dynamics is considered. The basic assumptions are (1) that there is a "consensus" value associated with a stock, and (2) that the rate of diffusion depends on the deviation of the stock price from the consensus value. We find an analytical expressi…
Modeling financial market dynamics with noise and fundamentalist agents.
Consensus dimension reduction combines multiple visualizations to identify shared patterns.
SBO uses dual voting to build consensus in noisy feedback settings.