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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,878 papers · 148 categories

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3877115153 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for conformity bias

Study improves confidence measures in medical imaging pipelines by addressing bias.

problem Bias in metric-based imaging pipelines compromises the efficiency of prediction intervals.
method Formalized symmetric and asymmetric CP formulations, analyzed bias effects, and validated empirically.
result Symmetric intervals are inflated by bias, while asymmetric intervals remain unaffected.

BC-ACI corrects time series forecast bias, improving prediction intervals.

problem Persistent bias in time series forecasts leads to overly conservative prediction intervals.
method Augments ACI with an EWM estimate of forecast bias to correct nonconformity scores and re-center intervals.
result Reduces Winkler interval scores by 13-17% under distribution shifts, improving calibration.

The paper addresses selection bias in conformal prediction for focal units.

problem Selection bias in marginally valid conformal prediction intervals for focal units.
method A general framework for constructing selection-conditional coverage prediction sets.
result Efficient methods for various selection rules with exact finite-sample coverage.

Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.

problem Establishing valid prediction intervals in semantic feature spaces.
method Extends conformal prediction to semantic feature spaces using deep representation learning.
result Feature conformal prediction outperforms regular conformal prediction under mild assumptions.

Unified framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in RL.

problem Uncertainty quantification in high-stakes reinforcement learning.
method Unified conformal prediction framework integrating distributional RL and conformal calibration.
result Significantly improved coverage and reliability over standard methods.

SA-BCP combines long-term and local evidence for efficient, adaptive online prediction.

problem Balancing fast adaptation and stable coverage in online prediction.
method State-Adaptive Bayesian Conformal Prediction (SA-BCP) using gated convex combination of temporal inertia and spatial evidence.
result SA-BCP achieves at-or-above-nominal coverage with substantially sharper intervals compared to discounted Bayesian CP.

STACI uses neural nets to estimate spatio-temporal fields with valid uncertainty quantification.

problem Scalable spatio-temporal deep learning models fail to capture underlying correlation structure.
method Variational Bayesian neural network approximation of non-stationary spatio-temporal Gaussian Process (GP) with conformal inference.
result STACI provides accurate prediction intervals for spatio-temporal processes, outperforming competing methods.

Enhances diffusion-based sampling for molecular systems.

problem Inefficiency and thermodynamic mode miss in diffusion-based samplers for molecular systems.
method Introduces a sequential bias along collective variables (CVs) to encourage exploration and increase temperature in the projected space.
result Improves efficiency, mode discovery, and free energy estimation; first to demonstrate reactive sampling.

SOCP uses SOM to find groups and local calibration buffers for better regional coverage.

problem Heterogeneous regional coverage gaps in conformal prediction.
method Self-Organizing Map (SOM) for group discovery; local calibration buffers at BMU or fixed grid.
result Reduces regional coverage gaps on 7/8 benchmarks by 7.1%.

Most classifiers operate by selecting the maximum of an estimate of the conditional distribution p(yx)p(y|x) where xx stands for the features of the instance to be classified and yy denotes its label. This often results in a {\em hubristic bias}: overconfidence in the assignment of a definite label. Usually, the observa…

2018-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

We study strict local martingales via h-transforms, a method which first appeared in Delbaen-Schachermayer. We show that strict local martingales arise whenever there is a consistent family of change of measures where the two measures are not equivalent to one another. Several old and new strict local martingales are i…

2007-11-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Generative AI reduces IR evaluation costs but introduces errors; this work provides reliable CIs.

problem Generating relevance annotations using AI introduces errors that affect IR evaluation metrics.
method Proposes two methods: prediction-powered inference and conformal risk control to place reliable CIs around IR metrics.
result Proposed methods accurately capture both variance and bias in evaluation based on AI-generated annotations.

We study the phenomenon of bias amplification in classifiers, wherein a machine learning model learns to predict classes with a greater disparity than the underlying ground truth. We demonstrate that bias amplification can arise via an inductive bias in gradient descent methods that results in the overestimation of the…

2018-12-21abs ↗pdf ↗

It has been noticed that some external CVIs exhibit a preferential bias towards a larger or smaller number of clusters which is monotonic (directly or inversely) in the number of clusters in candidate partitions. This type of bias is caused by the functional form of the CVI model. For example, the popular Rand index (R…

2016-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Depth uncertainty networks don't improve with bias correction, contrary to expectations.

problem Improving performance in active learning with overparameterised models like NNs.
method Depth uncertainty networks, compared to underparameterised models, show no improvement in performance with bias correction.
result Depth uncertainty networks do not improve with bias correction, unlike underparameterised models.

We quantify causal bias in continuous treatment settings.

problem Identifying and quantifying causal bias in continuous treatment scenarios.
method Developed a novel characterization of causal bias in structural causal models, proving conditions for zero bias and efficient estimation.
result Causal bias can be estimated efficiently under certain structural equation restrictions, allowing for causal regularization of predictive models.

The paper introduces Relative Bias to quantify LLM bias systematically.

problem Quantifying bias in LLMs is challenging due to ambiguity and rapid model emergence.
method Relative Bias framework using Embedding Transformation and LLM-as-a-Judge methodologies.
result The two scoring methods show strong alignment, providing a systematic approach.

SSMs have a built-in bias towards low-frequency components, which can be adjusted.

problem Frequency bias in SSMs affects their performance on long-range sequences.
method Proposed two mechanisms to tune frequency bias: scaling initialization or applying a Sobolev-norm-based filter.
result Tuning frequency bias improves SSMs' performance on long-range sequence learning tasks.

This paper assesses biases in contextualized word representations.

problem Analyzing biases in contextualized word representations.
method Proposes assessing bias at the contextual word level, capturing contextual effects of bias.
result Demonstrates evidence of bias in contextual word models, including racial bias and exacerbated effects for intersectional minorities.

A bias classifier is introduced to resist adversarial attacks.

problem Resisting adversarial attacks on deep neural networks (DNNs).
method Introducing the bias part of a DNN with Relu as the activation function as a classifier, and adding a random first-degree part to make it information-theoretically safe.
result The bias classifier is more robust than DNNs of similar size against adversarial attacks.

UBM transfers bias mitigation from upstream to downstream tasks efficiently.

problem Bias in fine-tuned language models across various tasks.
method Apply bias mitigation to an upstream model, then fine-tune a downstream model on this mitigated model.
result UBM effects transfer to new downstream tasks, creating less biased models.

Study shows racial bias in health data, which can be reduced with simple techniques.

problem Racial bias in health indicators measured by the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS).
method Used publicly available and nationally representative MEPS data to show bias in predictive models for care management.
result Racial bias can be significantly reduced using simple mitigation techniques.

Ensembles improve classifier performance by reducing bias, not variance.

problem Improving classifier performance through ensemble methods.
method Extended bias-variance decomposition for classification tasks, introducing dual reparameterization.
result Ensembling reduces bias in classifiers, contrary to the traditional view.

Reduces gender bias in patient notes while maintaining medical classification accuracy.

problem Bias in natural language processing of patient notes.
method Identifying and removing gendered language using BERT-based classifiers, then augmenting data to maintain performance.
result Minimal degradation in health condition classification tasks with data augmentation.

The paper tackles distribution-free prediction intervals for multi-source data.

problem Challenges in achieving valid inferences due to distribution shifts and privacy concerns.
method Derives efficient influence functions, incorporates machine learning, and proposes data-adaptive strategies.
result Achieves parametric rates of convergence to nominal coverage probabilities for prediction intervals.

Study analyzes bias interactions in multimodal models using simulation-based methods.

problem Analyzing dynamic bias interactions in multimodal models to ensure fairness and equity.
method Simulation-based heuristic approach to compute bias scores for text-only, image-only, and multimodal embeddings.
result Multimodal bias interactions can be amplification, mitigation, or neutral, with text bias often dominant.

Debiasing techniques can worsen gender bias in text classification, but a tweak improves both.

problem Debiasing techniques can inadvertently increase gender bias in text classification.
method Investigated traditional debiasing techniques and found they worsen bias. Suggested a minor adjustment.
result A minor adjustment to debiasing techniques can reduce gender bias while maintaining high classification accuracy.

Study uncovers bias in image classification models using attribution maps.

problem Data bias in image classification models.
method Created an artificial dataset with known bias, trained CNNs, and used attribution maps to inspect decisions.
result Different attribution map techniques highlight bias better than others, and metrics support bias identification.

Study on bias and extrapolation in LSA with Markovian data, showing bias reduction with Richardson-Romberg extrapolation.

problem Bias in LSA with constant stepsizes and Markovian data.
method Viewing LSA as a Markov chain, proving convergence and bias expansion, and applying Richardson-Romberg extrapolation.
result Bias is proportional to the stepsize up to higher order terms, and Richardson-Romberg extrapolation reduces the bias.

The paper detects and identifies bias in data using a counterfactual approach.

problem Detecting and identifying bias in data, especially in medical image classification.
method A global explanation framework using the counterfactual approach to identify bias causing artifacts.
result Black frames significantly influence Convolutional Neural Network's prediction, changing benign to malignant.