A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Develops a method to quantify racial bias in law enforcement systems.
Develops a learning model predictive controller for competitive racing.
Modeling horse race betting odds with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
Deep RL drone trained to compete against classical path planning in drone racing.
DeepRacing uses neural networks to predict trajectories for autonomous racing in video games.
To answer questions about racial inequality and fairness, we often need a way to infer race and ethnicity from names. One way to infer race and ethnicity from names is by relying on the Census Bureau's list of popular last names. The list, however, suffers from at least three limitations: 1. it only contains last names…
Black women and white men have the highest income disparity in the U.S.
Societal bias towards certain communities is a big problem that affects a lot of machine learning systems. This work aims at addressing the racial bias present in many modern gender recognition systems. We learn race invariant representations of human faces with an adversarially trained autoencoder model. We show that …
Improved race prediction model outperforms existing methods.
RankNet forecasts car racing positions with improved accuracy and stability.
Improved surname geocoding and name supplements enhance race imputation accuracy.
BBE simulates sports betting exchanges for data generation.
A new model predicts race places using changeover-times and log-normal distributions.
We propose Lomax delegate racing (LDR) to explicitly model the mechanism of survival under competing risks and to interpret how the covariates accelerate or decelerate the time to event. LDR explains non-monotonic covariate effects by racing a potentially infinite number of sub-risks, and consequently relaxes the ubiqu…
New analysis shows rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to catastrophic risk.
This work improves autonomous racing by creating diverse opponents and adapting risk.
This short note is intended as a "Letter to the Editor" Perspective in order that it serves as a contribution, in view of reaching the physics community caring about rare events and scaling laws and unexpected findings, on a domain of wide interest: sport and money. It is apparent from the data reported and discussed b…
In this paper, we consider the problem of predicting demographics of geographic units given geotagged Tweets that are composed within these units. Traditional survey methods that offer demographics estimates are usually limited in terms of geographic resolution, geographic boundaries, and time intervals. Thus, it would…
We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the average true winning probabilities, the implied odds conditional on a win, and the …
Assessing the fairness of a decision making system with respect to a protected class, such as gender or race, is challenging when class membership labels are unavailable. Probabilistic models for predicting the protected class based on observable proxies, such as surname and geolocation for race, are sometimes used to …
Study removes bias from chest X-ray embeddings using orthogonalization.
New approach to counterfactual reasoning avoids demographic interventions.
China and EU race to develop hydrogen for energy transition.
Understanding and modeling human driver behavior is crucial for advanced vehicle development. However, unique driving styles, inconsistent behavior, and complex decision processes render it a challenging task, and existing approaches often lack variability or robustness. To approach this problem, we propose Probabilist…
The performance of classification algorithms with a massive and highly imbalanced data stream depends upon efficient balancing strategy. Some techniques of balancing strategy have been applied in the past with Batch data to resolve the class imbalance problem. This paper proposes a new incremental data balancing framew…
BBE simulates betting exchanges to generate synthetic data for AI research.
In the automation of many kinds of processes, the observable outcome can often be described as the combined effect of an entire sequence of actions, or controls, applied throughout its execution. In these cases, strategies to optimise control policies for individual stages of the process might not be applicable, and in…
This note examines financial distributions to competing teams at the end of the most famous multiple stage professional (male) bicyclist race, TOUR DE FRANCE. A rank-size law (RSL) is calculated for the team financial gains. The RSL is found to be hyperbolic with a surprisingly simple decay exponent (about equal to -1)…
Predictive modeling is increasingly being employed to assist human decision-makers. One purported advantage of replacing human judgment with computer models in high stakes settings-- such as sentencing, hiring, policing, college admissions, and parole decisions-- is the perceived "neutrality" of computers. It is argued…
Investigates sports betting strategies using modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion.
"Overlearning" means that a model trained for a seemingly simple objective implicitly learns to recognize attributes and concepts that are (1) not part of the learning objective, and (2) sensitive from a privacy or bias perspective. For example, a binary gender classifier of facial images also learns to recognize races…
Paper debiases multiple word embedding biases simultaneously.
Despite their impressive performance on diverse tasks, neural networks fail catastrophically in the presence of adversarial inputs---imperceptibly but adversarially perturbed versions of natural inputs. We have witnessed an arms race between defenders who attempt to train robust networks and attackers who try to constr…
fairadapt uses causal inference to mitigate algorithmic bias in data pre-processing.
This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high rel…
Ordinal regression falls between discrete-valued classification and continuous-valued regression. Ordinal target variables can be associated with ranked random variables. These random variables are known as order statistics and they are closely related to ordinal regression. However, the challenge of using order statis…
Ensemble Kalman methods improve climate model calibration from noisy observations.
Machine learning outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns.
A new method assesses algorithmic fairness using game theory.
In recent years, car makers and tech companies have been racing towards self driving cars. It seems that the main parameter in this race is who will have the first car on the road. The goal of this paper is to add to the equation two additional crucial parameters. The first is standardization of safety assurance --- wh…
This paper is part of an ongoing investigation of "pragmatic information", defined in Weinberger (2002) as "the amount of information actually used in making a decision". Because a study of information rates led to the Noiseless and Noisy Coding Theorems, two of the most important results of Shannon's theory, we begin …
A new ranking model with dynamic covariates improves statistical analysis.
Two critical questions about intergenerational outcomes are: one, whether significant barriers or traps exist between different social or economic strata; and two, the extent to which intergenerational outcomes do (or can be used to) affect individual investment and consumption decisions. We develop a model to explicit…
Perceptual ad-blocking is a novel approach that detects online advertisements based on their visual content. Compared to traditional filter lists, the use of perceptual signals is believed to be less prone to an arms race with web publishers and ad networks. We demonstrate that this may not be the case. We describe att…
There is a growing body of work that proposes methods for mitigating bias in machine learning systems. These methods typically rely on access to protected attributes such as race, gender, or age. However, this raises two significant challenges: (1) protected attributes may not be available or it may not be legal to use…
Research on interference has provided evidence that the formation of dependencies between non-adjacent words relies on a cue-based retrieval mechanism. Two different models can account for one of the main predictions of interference, i.e., a slowdown at a retrieval site, when several items share a feature associated wi…
Kernel-based machine learning approaches are gaining increasing interest for exploring and modeling large dataset in recent years. Gaussian process (GP) is one example of such kernel-based approaches, which can provide very good performance for nonlinear modeling problems. In this work, we first propose a grey-box mode…
We consider the problem of a neural network being requested to classify images (or other inputs) without making implicit use of a "protected concept", that is a concept that should not play any role in the decision of the network. Typically these concepts include information such as gender or race, or other contextual …