Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions to measure evidence conflict and stability.
problem Modern data analysis lacks mechanisms to show the clarity, conflict, or stability of evidence behind predictions.
method Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions.
result SEF measures conflict and stability, and shows that conflict can improve loss prediction beyond confidence.
Novel approach uses Gaussian processes to estimate conflict trends.
problem Estimating temporal and spatial patterns of violent conflict.
method Highly disaggregated conflict event data with Gaussian processes.
result Powerful conflict forecasts and insights into conflict dynamics.
The paper uses conformal prediction for forecasting conflict sequences in Markov processes.
problem Forecasting future conflict states for national policy decisions.
method Conformal prediction on Markov processes for temporally-dependent data.
result Conformal prediction provides valid uncertainty quantification and robustness to model misspecification.
New theory shows alliances neither deter nor provoke aggression.
problem The causal effect of alliances on conflict is unclear due to endogeneity issues.
method Innovative generalized joint regression models to account for endogeneity.
result Alliances neither deter nor provoke aggression.
Conflict sets are loci of intersecting wavefronts emanating from l different surfaces. We show that generically conflict sets are Legendrian: locally they admit the structure of wavefronts. Simple stable singularities for this problem in Rn occur when 0≤n−l≤4. Other related sets, such as kite curves a…
We first pursue the study of how hierarchy provides a well-adapted tool for the analysis of change. Then, using a time sequence-constrained hierarchical clustering, we develop the practical aspects of a new approach to wavelet regression. This provides a new way to link hierarchical relationships in a multivariate time…
The paper shows conflict graphs of Petersen family graphs are mostly unbalanced.
problem Understanding the balance of conflict graphs in Petersen family graphs.
method Analyzing maximally planar subgraphs and their conflict graphs.
result All but three strong conflict graphs from Petersen Family Graphs are unbalanced.
Unified approach detects traffic conflicts across various interactions.
problem Inconsistent detection of traffic conflicts across different interactions.
method Unified probabilistic approach decomposes conflicts into statistical learning tasks.
result Effective collision warnings across diverse datasets and environments.
Paper resolves apparent conflict between group and individual fairness.
problem Apparent conflict between group and individual fairness in machine learning.
method Theoretical discussions from fair machine learning, political, and legal philosophy.
result Individual and group fairness are not fundamentally in conflict.
We present CYCLADES, a general framework for parallelizing stochastic optimization algorithms in a shared memory setting. CYCLADES is asynchronous during shared model updates, and requires no memory locking mechanisms, similar to HOGWILD!-type algorithms. Unlike HOGWILD!, CYCLADES introduces no conflicts during the par…
The study extends Tutte's conflict graph concept to nonplanar graphs.
problem Understanding the structure of nonplanar graphs through conflict graphs.
method Defining a signed conflict graph for maximally planar subgraphs and analyzing their balance.
result For graphs with a flat embedding, every maximal planar subgraph has unbalanced conflict graphs if and only if the graph is intrinsically linked.
New method detects conflicts in police body-worn audio.
problem Poor metrics for conflict detection in police interactions.
method Adaptive noise removal, non-speech filtering, and new phrase-based measures.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on LAPD body-worn audio data.
Three models proposed to resolve conflicts in Turkish day-ahead electricity market.
problem Non-convexities cause conflicts between bidders' actions and market results.
method Proposed three rule sets to address conflicts in market clearing.
result Statistical comparison of models' performance using real data.
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
problem Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
method Analytical framework for tail dependence, Copula-CoVaR method, ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model.
result The outbreak of the conflict intensified risks in the wheat market the most and showed significant asymmetries in extreme risk spillovers.
This paper consists of two parts. In the first one we study the behaviour of medial axes (skeletons) of closed sets in a connected complete Riemannian manifold M under deformations. The second one is devoted to a similar study of conflict sets. We apply a new approach to the deformation process. Instead of …
The study analyzes implicit biases in neural networks using backward error analysis.
problem Analyzing implicit biases in multitask and continual learning settings.
method Backward error analysis to compute implicit training biases, deriving modified losses with three terms.
result The conflict term, measuring gradient alignment, is a new quantity in continual learning.
This paper tackles multilingual speech processing by optimizing conflicting objectives hierarchically.
problem Training models for multilingual, multi-task speech processing is hampered by conflicting objectives.
method Investigates three multi-objective MSP formulations and introduces a lightweight layer-selection mechanism.
result A bi-level recipe outperforms standard flat optimization in state-of-the-art MSP models.
Paper defines predictive multiplicity and measures its severity in classification problems.
problem Challenges in machine learning due to competing models with conflicting predictions.
method Formal measures and integer programming tools for linear classification problems.
result Real-world datasets may admit competing models with wildly conflicting predictions.
New hashing methods improve entity resolution in conflict datasets.
problem Improving entity resolution in databases with unknown unique identifiers.
method Introducing and comparing new locality sensitive hashing methods.
result New hashing methods outperform existing approaches in conflict datasets.
Paper proposes active learning for mining conflict dynamics from textual data.
problem Lack of detailed information on conflict dynamics in existing datasets.
method Active learning with a large, encoder-only language model.
result Performance similar to human coding with reduced human annotation.
Study on recurrent neural networks' feature selection and memorization using F1B test.
problem Conflict between feature selection and memorization in sequence learning.
method Flagged-1-Bit (F1B) test, four recurrent network models studied analytically and experimentally.
result Conflict can be resolved by gating mechanism or increasing state dimension.
Time inconsistency leads to intra-personal conflict and reconciliation strategies.
problem Time inconsistency in dynamic choice problems.
method Rigorous treatment of intra-personal equilibrium in continuous-time settings.
result A new approach to understanding and reconciling intra-personal conflicts.
We investigate the structure of global inter-firm linkages using a dataset that contains information on business partners for about 400,000 firms worldwide, including all the firms listed on the major stock exchanges. Among the firms, we examine three networks, which are based on customer-supplier, licensee-licensor, a…
Enhances conformal prediction for better uncertainty estimates in armed conflict fatalities.
problem Lack of individual-level uncertainty estimates in existing forecasting models.
method Introduces bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) to improve coverage rates across subsets of the outcome variable.
result Demonstrates improved local coverage and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across various ranges of fatalities.
Hybrid model improves geopolitical conflict forecasting.
problem Forecasting geopolitical events from sparse, bursty data.
method Sparse Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) + Variational Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (VNNGP).
result Consistently outperforms standalone TFT in long-range horizons.
LLMs show biases in investment analysis, leading to unreliable recommendations.
problem LLMs face conflicts between pre-trained knowledge and real-time market data, leading to biases in investment analysis.
method Experimental framework to investigate emergent behaviors in LLMs, analyzing sector, size, and momentum biases.
result Distinct, model-specific biases observed, including a tendency to prefer technology stocks, large-cap stocks, and contrarian strategies.
MAMBA learns policies competitive with multiple conflicting oracles.
problem Learning policies from multiple conflicting oracles in reinforcement learning.
method MAMBA uses a gradient estimator in the style of GAE to optimize policies, leveraging demonstrations from multiple weak oracles.
result MAMBA outperforms the state-of-the-art in learning policies competitive with multiple conflicting oracles.
Proposes a new framework for uncertainty-aware LLM post-training.
problem Heterogeneous, conflicting data in large language models.
method α-Rényi variational framework for learning distributions over post-training parameters.
result Enables training examples to be softly routed across ensemble members, promoting model specialisation and providing uncertainty estimates.
New method robustly discovers causal relationships from imperfect data.
problem Challenges in causal discovery from imperfect structural constraints.
method Prior alignment and conflict resolution through surrogate model and multi-task learning.
result Proposes a robust method for causal discovery under imperfect constraints.
Study examines grain futures connectedness during Russia-Ukraine conflict.
problem Quantile return connectedness of grain futures markets during geopolitical instability.
method Dynamic quantile VAR combined with frequency-domain decomposition.
result Heterogeneous spillovers across quantiles, with strong transmitters and persistent receivers.
WISCA generates consensus explanations from conflicting model-agnostic interpretability methods.
problem Conflicting explanations from diverse interpretability algorithms.
method WISCA integrates class probability and normalized attributions to generate consistent explanations.
result WISCA consistently aligns with the most reliable individual method, improving explanation reliability.
Unified framework for online FDR control in asynchronous testing.
problem Control of false discovery rate in decentralized, asynchronous testing.
method Unified computational abstraction called 'conflict sets' for handling dependencies.
result Formal FDR guarantees under local dependence, improving on classical methods.
Researchers develop a neural network that learns like humans, overcoming forgetting and structure issues.
problem Catastrophic forgetting and structure limitations in neural networks.
method Memory playback strategy and dynamic structure extension using conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE).
result The method effectively prevents forgetting and allows for dynamic network growth.
Neural network learns atomic coordinates from Patterson maps in a simplified case.
problem Training a neural network to infer atomic coordinates from Patterson maps.
method Synthetic data training, centering output maps, removing centrosymmetric inversion, and adding empty space.
result The network can generalize to infer atom positions from Patterson maps not in the training set.
EXAGREE selects a stakeholder-aligned model to reduce conflicting explanations in machine learning.
problem Conflicting explanations from different attribution methods limit the adoption of machine learning models in safety-critical domains.
method EXAGREE is a two-stage framework that selects a Stakeholder-Aligned Explanation Model (SAEM) from a set of similar-performing models, maximizing Stakeholder-Machine Agreement (SMA).
result EXAGREE achieves simultaneous gains in faithfulness, plausibility, and fairness over baselines while preserving task accuracy.
Scientific practice typically involves repeatedly studying a system, each time trying to unravel a different perspective. In each study, the scientist may take measurements under different experimental conditions (interventions, manipulations, perturbations) and measure different sets of quantities (variables). The res…
A 2-complex requires at least 12 colours to avoid edge conflicts.
problem Generalizing the Four Colour Theorem to three dimensions.
method Examined 2-complexes embedded in 3-manifolds, proving necessity and sufficiency of 12 colours.
result 12 colours are both necessary and sufficient for 2-complexes in 3-manifolds.
The study analyzes the conflict between group fairness and individual fairness in machine learning.
problem The conflict between group fairness (optimal statistical parity) and individual fairness in machine learning.
method Established sufficient conditions for the compatibility between optimal statistical parity and individual fairness requirements.
result Identified regions along the Pareto frontier that satisfy individual fairness requirements.
The paper reconciles two conflicting fairness criteria in algorithmic risk scores.
problem How to reconcile calibration and equal error rates in algorithmic risk scores.
method Derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of calibrated scores achieving equal error rates, then present an algorithm to find the most accurate score subject to both criteria.
result The method can eliminate error disparities while maintaining calibration and improve profit in credit lending.
Study analyzes crude oil futures markets using visibility graphs to understand their structure and dynamics.
problem Understanding the structure and dynamics of crude oil futures markets during global challenges.
method Visibility graph analysis of daily and high-frequency data.
result Crude oil futures markets exhibit small-world properties and assortative mixing, with unique sensitivities to global disruptions.
Introduces Rashomon Capacity to measure predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classifiers.
problem Predictive multiplicity in classification models leading to unjustified decisions.
method Introduces Rashomon Capacity, a metric for probabilistic classifiers, and provides a rigorous derivation.
result Rashomon Capacity captures nuanced score variations and provides strategies for disclosing conflicting models.
Model predicts increased social unrest during COVID-19 using social media data.
problem Detecting rising conflict potential in societies during pandemics.
method Neural implicit motive pattern recognition from social media texts.
result Significant increase in conflict indicators during the pandemic.
Study adapts OHLC volatility estimators for monitoring market stress in diverse settings.
problem Limited use of range-based volatility estimators in local commodity markets.
method Adapted OHLC volatility estimators to monitor market distress across various contexts.
result OHLC-based volatility indicators detect market disruptions missed by standard momentum indicators.
A novel deep learning technique combines multiple modalities, improving performance.
problem Challenges in leveraging different modalities due to noise and conflicts.
method Proposes a deep neural network that multiplicatively combines information from different modalities.
result Consistent accuracy improvements on three multimodal classification tasks.
The green area of economy is the key of healthy living. It is necessary to convene economic and ecologic framework to establish a market attentive to drastic reduction of emissions damaging our climate and landscapes in rural areas, to the protection of biological diversity of the planet, to stop producing nuclear wast…
Study compares MAPF and MARL algorithms for warehouse automation.
problem Optimizing multi-agent pickup and delivery in warehouse settings.
method Compared conflict-based search (MAPF) and shared experience actor-critic (MARL).
result Comprehensive benchmarking of MAPF and MARL in a simulated warehouse environment.
Logistic regression and neural networks reinterpreted using Dempster-Shafer theory.
problem Lack of evidence and conflicting evidence in classification problems.
method Reinterpretation of classifiers as mass functions and aggregation by Dempster's rule.
result Mass functions provide more informative decision-making than probabilities.
AGI modifies utility function to cooperate, conflicting with orthogonality thesis.
problem AGI modifying utility function to improve cooperation, conflicting with orthogonality thesis.
method Observing and influencing interactions, converging to similar utility functions.
result AGIs in competitive environments may optimize for favorable influence.