Selective inference framework for CART trees to control error rates and coverage.
problem Inference on CART trees does not control Type 1 error rates and coverage.
method Selective inference framework conditioning on tree estimation, efficient algorithms.
result Proposes tests and intervals for CART trees with selective error control.
We consider the inference of the structure of an undirected graphical model in an exact Bayesian framework. More specifically we aim at achieving the inference with close-form posteriors, avoiding any sampling step. This task would be intractable without any restriction on the considered graphs, so we limit our explora…
ARTree uses deep learning to infer tree topologies efficiently.
problem Efficient phylogenetic inference from tree topologies.
method Deep autoregressive model based on graph neural networks (GNNs).
result ARTree provides a flexible family of distributions over tree topologies.
Integrates differentiable decision trees into neural networks for faster training and inference.
problem Combining differentiability and conditional computation in tree ensembles for neural networks.
method Sparse activation function and specialized forward/backward propagation algorithms for efficient training and inference.
result 10x speed-ups and 20x reduction in parameters compared to existing methods, while maintaining performance.
A new method explains mixed features for predictive models using conditional inference trees.
problem Explaining complex machine learning models with mixed features.
method Proposes a method to explain mixed features (continuous, discrete, ordinal, categorical) using conditional inference trees.
result Our method often outperforms current industry standards in various simulation studies and real-world financial data.
We introduce block-tree graphs as a framework for deriving efficient algorithms on graphical models. We define block-tree graphs as a tree-structured graph where each node is a cluster of nodes such that the clusters in the graph are disjoint. This differs from junction-trees, where two clusters connected by an edge al…
Bayesian model estimates treatment effects near cutoffs in regression discontinuity designs.
problem Estimating conditional average treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs.
method Develops a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model with linear leaf-level regressions.
result Adapts to different slopes on the running variable near the cutoff, providing interpretable inference.
Estimates sample size for subgroup analysis in randomized experiments.
problem Determining sample size for accurate subgroup analysis.
method Turns inference problem into simultaneous inference, calculates sample size based on confidence level and margin of error.
result Allows inversion of sample size to feasible number of treatment arms or partition complexity.
The paper challenges the use of decision trees for pointwise inference due to slow convergence rates.
problem The slow convergence rates of decision trees in uniform norm, especially with non-vanishing probability.
method Demonstrates the limitations of adaptive recursive partitioning and shows how random forests can improve performance.
result Decision trees can fail to achieve polynomial rates of convergence in uniform norm, even with pruning.
DTS improves inference-time alignment of diffusion models with less compute.
problem Inference-time alignment of diffusion models suffers from inaccurate value estimation and inefficient reuse of past computations.
method Diffusion Tree Sampling (DTS) uses a tree-based approach to propagate terminal rewards and iteratively refine value estimates.
result DTS produces asymptotically exact samples and matches the FID of best-performing baselines with up to 10x less compute.
The paper introduces staged event trees for transparent treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data.
method Staged event trees framework for causal inference.
result Enhanced treatment effect estimation with improved interpretability.
Tree-AMP simplifies inference in complex tree-structured models.
problem Inference in high-dimensional tree-structured models.
method Approximate Message Passing algorithms for various machine learning tasks.
result Theoretical performance predictions and automated entropy estimation.
Develops a new method to recover large latent tree models efficiently.
problem Inference of large latent tree structures from terminal node observations.
method Spectral Top-Down Recovery (STDR) using Fiedler vector partitioning.
result Proves statistical consistency and sample complexity for accurate tree recovery.
SNJ recovers latent tree models from similarity matrices.
problem Reconstructing latent tree models from observed data.
method Spectral Neighbor Joining (SNJ) method.
result SNJ is consistent and requires fewer samples for accurate tree recovery.
We introduce a globally-convergent algorithm for optimizing the tree-reweighted (TRW) variational objective over the marginal polytope. The algorithm is based on the conditional gradient method (Frank-Wolfe) and moves pseudomarginals within the marginal polytope through repeated maximum a posteriori (MAP) calls. This m…
Regression models for supervised learning problems with a continuous target are commonly understood as models for the conditional mean of the target given predictors. This notion is simple and therefore appealing for interpretation and visualisation. Information about the whole underlying conditional distribution is, h…
CVTMLE improves statistical inference in settings of positivity or Donsker class violations.
problem Inference issues in causal inference due to data sparsity or near-positivity violations.
method Cross-validation of TMLE (CVTMLE) to improve performance in settings of positivity or Donsker class violations.
result CVTMLE vastly improves confidence interval coverage without affecting bias, especially in small sample sizes and near-positivity violations.
C-XGBoost estimates causal effects from observational data.
problem Estimating causal effects from observational data.
method Proposes C-XGBoost, a tree boosting model for causal effect estimation.
result Demonstrates effectiveness through performance profiles and statistical tests.
Inferring a decision tree from a given dataset is one of the classic problems in machine learning. This problem consists of buildings, from a labelled dataset, a tree such that each node corresponds to a class and a path between the tree root and a leaf corresponds to a conjunction of features to be satisfied in this c…
We propose a new algorithm to do posterior sampling of Kingman's coalescent, based upon the Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methodology. Specifically, the algorithm is an instantiation of the Particle Gibbs Sampling method, which alternately samples coalescent times conditioned on coalescent tree structures, and tree…
GeoPhy uses geometric gradients to efficiently infer phylogenetic trees from molecular data.
problem Challenges in accurately inferring species relationships from molecular data due to combinatorially vast tree topologies.
method Introduces a novel, fully differentiable formulation of phylogenetic inference using geometric spaces and variational Bayesian methods.
result Significantly outperforms other approximate Bayesian methods in inferring phylogenetic trees.
LDTA expands LDA's topic modeling capacity with tree-structured priors.
problem Limited expressiveness of Dirichlet priors in LDA for complex topic relationships.
method Introduces Latent Dirichlet-Tree Allocation (LDTA) with Dirichlet-Tree (DT) priors, and develops universal mean-field variational inference and Expectation Propagation.
result LDTA enables expressive, tree-structured priors over topic proportions, expanding modeling capacity of LDA.
The Mondrian process represents an elegant and powerful approach for space partition modelling. However, as it restricts the partitions to be axis-aligned, its modelling flexibility is limited. In this work, we propose a self-consistent Binary Space Partitioning (BSP)-Tree process to generalize the Mondrian process. Th…
CIT and CIF improve feature selection for downstream prediction.
problem Feature selection bias in machine learning models.
method Conditional inference trees and forests with Bonferroni correction.
result CIF ranks top 3 among 18 regression methods and top 4 among 17 classification methods.
Paper improves tree probability estimation using stochastic optimization and variance reduction.
problem Improving tree probability estimation in phylogenetic inference.
method Introduces computationally efficient methods for training SBNs and variance reduction for optimization.
result Methods outperform previous baseline methods in tree topology probability estimation and Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
Improved phylogenetic inference using VBPI-Mixtures for tree topology and branch length.
problem Multimodality of tree-topology posterior distributions in phylogenetic inference.
method VBPI-Mixtures algorithm that uses mixture learning within the BBVI framework.
result VBPI-Mixtures captures tree-topology distributions better than VBPI.
A new framework for efficient Bayesian network inference.
problem High-dimensional Bayesian networks are hard to infer due to computational scaling.
method Directed convex subgraphs and minimal d-decomposition tree for decomposition, enabling parallel computation.
result The method reduces computational cost and enables parallel computation.
The paper proposes a method to infer differentiation trees from RNA velocity data.
problem Reconstructing dynamic cellular processes from sequencing data.
method Defining varifold distances between RNA velocity curves to approximate shortest-path distances in a tree.
result The varifold distance method approximates the shortest-path distance in a tree isomorphic to the target differentiation tree.
Develops a variational method for ultrametric phylogenetic trees.
problem Accurate and efficient approximation of posterior distributions over trees in Bayesian phylogenetics.
method Variational Bayesian approach based on coalescent times of a single-linkage clustering.
result Achieves competitive accuracy with significantly fewer gradient evaluations.
PhyloGFN uses GFlowNets to infer phylogenetic trees from sequence data.
problem Challenging phylogenetic tree inference from sequence data due to high complexity.
method Adopting GFlowNets for parsimony-based and Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
result PhyloGFN produces diverse and high-quality evolutionary hypotheses.
Adversarial inference on tree models is possible with limited corruption, improving on Kesten-Stigum threshold.
problem Posterior inference on tree-structured graphical models in the presence of adversarial corruption.
method Dynamic programming via belief propagation, constrained adversarial corruption.
result Belief propagation can perform accurate inference with limited adversarial corruption.
A Bayesian treatment of latent directed graph structure for non-iid data is provided where each child datum is sampled with a directed conditional dependence on a single unknown parent datum. The latent graph structure is assumed to lie in the family of directed out-tree graphs which leads to efficient Bayesian inferen…
FalconBC improves patient-specific cardiovascular modeling by estimating boundary conditions efficiently.
problem Efficiently estimating boundary conditions in patient-specific cardiovascular models, especially in open-loop models and anatomies with lesions.
method A general amortized inference framework based on probabilistic flow that treats clinical targets and anatomies as conditioning variables.
result Demonstrated on two patient-specific models, FalconBC improves efficiency and accuracy in estimating boundary conditions.
Deep neural networks and decision trees operate on largely separate paradigms; typically, the former performs representation learning with pre-specified architectures, while the latter is characterised by learning hierarchies over pre-specified features with data-driven architectures. We unite the two via adaptive neur…
New method creates adaptive prediction intervals for regression models.
problem Need to quantify uncertainty in regression model predictions.
method Regression trees and Random Forests trained on conformity scores.
result Superior scalability and performance compared to baselines.
A new approach uses partial likelihood to improve tree-based density estimation and inference.
problem Inference on tree-based models suffers from overfitting and reduced efficiency due to data-independent partitioning.
method Proposes a partial likelihood approach to data-dependent partitioning of tree-based models.
result Significant gains in estimation accuracy and computational efficiency from adopting partial likelihood.
Bayesian approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in RDD designs.
problem Heterogeneity in treatment effects in RDD designs can lead to misleading conclusions.
method Direct Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) for modeling heterogeneous treatment effects.
result Flexibly captures complicated structures of heterogeneous treatment effects as a function of covariates.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) process input text sequentially and model the conditional transition between word tokens. In contrast, the advantages of recursive networks include that they explicitly model the compositionality and the recursive structure of natural language. However, the current recursive architectur…
Optimal survival trees ensemble reduces tree count and improves predictive performance.
problem Improving predictive performance in survival analysis.
method Grows a forest of optimal survival trees by ranking and selecting the best trees based on out-of-bag error.
result Reduces the number of trees in the ensemble while improving predictive performance.
Bayesian framework uses context trees for efficient time series modeling.
problem Building flexible and interpretable mixture models for real-valued time series.
method Hierarchical Bayesian modelling with context trees and autoregressive models.
result The methods outperform state-of-the-art techniques on simulated and real-world experiments.
Energy trees handle complex data structures with multiple variable types.
problem Handling intricate data structures with various types of covariates.
method Energy trees, a regression and classification model, use energy statistics to accommodate structured covariates of different types.
result Energy trees maintain statistical foundations, interpretability, and robustness to overfitting.
A cluster tree provides a highly-interpretable summary of a density function by representing the hierarchy of its high-density clusters. It is estimated using the empirical tree, which is the cluster tree constructed from a density estimator. This paper addresses the basic question of quantifying our uncertainty by ass…
Paper proposes learnable topological features for efficient phylogenetic inference.
problem Finding appropriate topological structures for phylogenetic inference tasks requires significant design effort and domain expertise.
method Combines raw node features with graph neural networks to automatically adapt to different tasks.
result Demonstrates effectiveness and efficiency on simulated and real data phylogenetic inference tasks.
Normalized random measures (NRMs) provide a broad class of discrete random measures that are often used as priors for Bayesian nonparametric models. Dirichlet process is a well-known example of NRMs. Most of posterior inference methods for NRM mixture models rely on MCMC methods since they are easy to implement and the…
Improves decision tree performance by correcting split selection errors.
problem Invalid statistical guarantees in split selection for decision trees.
method Introduces anytime-valid inference to provide valid statistical guarantees.
result Provides anytime-valid control of false splits under arbitrary data streams.
We introduce inference trees (ITs), a new class of inference methods that build on ideas from Monte Carlo tree search to perform adaptive sampling in a manner that balances exploration with exploitation, ensures consistency, and alleviates pathologies in existing adaptive methods. ITs adaptively sample from hierarchica…
Partition Tree estimates conditional densities for mixed continuous and categorical variables.
problem Estimating conditional densities for mixed data types.
method Tree-based framework modeling conditional distributions as piecewise-constant densities on adaptive partitions, minimizing conditional negative log-likelihood.
result Improved probabilistic prediction compared to CART-style trees and state-of-the-art methods.
A hybrid strategy forecasts short-term loads using Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting.
problem Lack of effective short-term load forecasting methods.
method Hybrid strategy integrating four different inference models: tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB).
result Demonstrates effectiveness of hybrid strategy on real datasets.