A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper analyzes the pricing of a new compute futures asset.
This study presents an agent-based computational cross-market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index futures to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions …
Machine learning techniques improve Bayesian computation for complex data.
Quantum computing offers new solutions for finance problems.
This paper studies the problem of trading futures with transaction costs when the underlying spot price is mean-reverting. Specifically, we model the spot dynamics by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU), Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR), or exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (XOU) model. The futures term structure is derived and its conne…
Future video prediction is an ill-posed Computer Vision problem that recently received much attention. Its main challenges are the high variability in video content, the propagation of errors through time, and the non-specificity of the future frames: given a sequence of past frames there is a continuous distribution o…
In this paper, the author considers the numerical computation of CVA for large systems by Mote Carlo methods. He introduces two types of stochastic mesh methods for the computations of CVA. In the first method, stochastic mesh method is used to obtain the future value of the derivative contracts. In the second method, …
Future grid scenario analysis requires a major departure from conventional power system planning, where only a handful of most critical conditions is typically analyzed. To capture the inter-seasonal variations in renewable generation of a future grid scenario necessitates the use of computationally intensive time-seri…
The paper proposes modern computational methods for optimizing reinsurance contracts.
Realized moments of higher order computed from intraday returns are introduced in recent years. The literature indicates that realized skewness is an important factor in explaining future asset returns. However, the literature mainly focuses on the whole market and on the monthly or weekly scale. In this paper, we cond…
Autonomous Vehicles(AV) are one of the brightest promises of the future which would help cut down fatalities and improve travel time while working in harmony. Autonomous vehicles will face with challenging situations and experiences not seen before. These experiences should be converted to knowledge and help the vehicl…
Temporal prediction is critical for making intelligent and robust decisions in complex dynamic environments. Motion prediction needs to model the inherently uncertain future which often contains multiple potential outcomes, due to multi-agent interactions and the latent goals of others. Towards these goals, we introduc…
We study a large economy in which firms cannot compute exact solutions to the non-linear equations that characterize the equilibrium price at which they can sell future output. Instead, firms use polynomial expansions to approximate prices. The precision with which they can compute prices is endogenous and depends on t…
Deep learning approximates Bermudan option exposures and future values.
Previous literature has identified an effect, dubbed the Zumbach effect, that is nonzero empirically but conjectured to be zero in any conventional stochastic volatility model. Essentially this effect corresponds to the property that past squared returns forecast future volatilities better than past volatilities foreca…
We present GLASSES: Global optimisation with Look-Ahead through Stochastic Simulation and Expected-loss Search. The majority of global optimisation approaches in use are myopic, in only considering the impact of the next function value; the non-myopic approaches that do exist are able to consider only a handful of futu…
Develops a new method for quantizing rough volatility for volatility derivatives pricing.
The paper tackles fVaR prediction methods in finance.
A surprising image of the stock market arises if the price time series of all Dow Jones Industrial Average stock components are represented in one chart at once. The chart evolves into a braid representation of the stock market by taking into account only the crossing of stocks and fixing a convention defining overcros…
TimeMCL forecasts diverse time series futures using neural networks and WTA loss.
Review of automation's role in chemical discovery, emphasizing future challenges.
We investigate the integration of a planning mechanism into sequence-to-sequence models using attention. We develop a model which can plan ahead in the future when it computes its alignments between input and output sequences, constructing a matrix of proposed future alignments and a commitment vector that governs whet…
Enhanced trend-following strategy using network momentum for commodity futures.
New RL approach uses future state and action visitation measures for better exploration.
Self-Predictive Representations improves data-efficient reinforcement learning from limited interaction.
In this paper we introduce an additive two-factor model for electricity futures prices based on Normal Inverse Gaussian Lévy processes, that fulfills a no-overlapping-arbitrage (NOA) condition. We compute European option prices by Fourier transform methods, introduce a specific calibration procedure that takes into acc…
We propose a generic confidence-based approximation that can be plugged in and simplify the auto-regressive generation process with a proved convergence. We first assume that the priors of future samples can be generated in an independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) manner using an efficient predictor. Given…
This paper surveys large-scale machine learning methods for efficient data analysis.
A simple approach improves performance on both past and future tasks in lifelong learning.
New formulas estimate life insurance benefits with less computation.
A deep learning model predicts future cache accesses with high accuracy.
CODA simulates future data to generalize models across different datasets.
We consider the wave equation on a product cone and find a joint asymptotic expansion for solutions near null and future infinities. The rates of decay seen in the expansion at future infinity are the resonances of a hyperbolic cone and were computed by the authors in a previous paper. The expansion treats an asymptoti…
Study predicts wind energy potential in Gulf of Oman using climate models.
Bayesian design improves experimental optimization.
Introduces CuFun model for more accurate TPPs using CDF.
The study compares VaR and ES models for tail risk of electricity futures, finding AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) with Student-t distribution best.
A new framework assesses liquidity risk in perpetual futures exchanges.
Research on knots, braids, and their invariants.
Several recent papers have discussed utilizing Lipschitz constants to limit the susceptibility of neural networks to adversarial examples. We analyze recently proposed methods for computing the Lipschitz constant. We show that the Lipschitz constant may indeed enable adversarially robust neural networks. However, the m…
CVPR 2020 challenge evaluates continual learning in computer vision.
Bayesian model forecasts hospital resource use during pandemic.
This work simplifies IRL by using potential-based reward shaping.
We propose RUDDER, a novel reinforcement learning approach for delayed rewards in finite Markov decision processes (MDPs). In MDPs the Q-values are equal to the expected immediate reward plus the expected future rewards. The latter are related to bias problems in temporal difference (TD) learning and to high variance p…
This paper computes fixed point Floer cohomology for Dehn twists on surfaces.
Since Giles introduced the multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation method [18], there has been rapid development of the technique for a variety of applications in computational finance. This paper surveys the progress so far, highlights the key features in achieving a high rate of multilevel variance convergence, and su…
Learning to predict future images from a video sequence involves the construction of an internal representation that models the image evolution accurately, and therefore, to some degree, its content and dynamics. This is why pixel-space video prediction may be viewed as a promising avenue for unsupervised feature learn…
Kriging predicts futures prices by accounting for trends and bid-ask spreads.