A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Detects bots in code commits and characterizes their activity.
StakeBench evaluates language understanding by linking comments to market commitments, improving model alignment with real-world outcomes.
The study analyzes when Bayesian averaging over decision trees is reliable.
New dynamic allocation methods for multi-armed bandit models.
In this paper, we study multi-armed bandit problems in explore-then-commit setting. In our proposed explore-then-commit setting, the goal is to identify the best arm after a pure experimentation (exploration) phase and exploit it once or for a given finite number of times. We identify that although the arm with the hig…
The paper examines how builders in Ethereum auctions can defect and replicate winning MEV opportunities, affecting searchers' bidding strategies.
Study of zero-sum games with noisy observations and commitments.
New algorithm tackles nonstationary linear bandits with latent dynamics.
DETC algorithm achieves asymptotic optimality in multi-armed bandit problems.
New algorithm tackles high-dimensional contextual bandits without sparsity.
Investigates multi-period portfolio optimization for DC plans using buffered Probability of Exceedance.
Continuous-time Kyle model shows privacy subsidy from noise-perturbed order flow.
This paper solves the best arm identification problem with both quick commitment and reward maximization.
Quantum Proof-of-Work uses boson sampling to secure blockchain consensus.
Naive investors make riskier choices than optimal strategies in continuous-time finance.
The discrete-time mean-variance portfolio selection formulation, a representative of general dynamic mean-risk portfolio selection problems, does not satisfy time consistency in efficiency (TCIE) in general, i.e., a truncated pre-committed efficient policy may become inefficient when considering the corresponding trunc…
Entropy tracking reveals class commitment transitions in diffusion models.
In this paper, we investigate the Merton portfolio management problem in the context of non-exponential discounting. This gives rise to time-inconsistency of the decision-maker. If the decision-maker at time t=0 can commit his/her successors, he/she can choose the policy that is optimal from his/her point of view, and …
New algorithm for decentralized matching markets without prior preference rankings.
Optimizes asset allocation with illiquid assets using MPC.
There is considerable debate whether the domestic political institutions (specifically, the country s level of democracy) of the host developing country toward foreign investors are effective in establishing the credibility of commitments are still underway, researchers have also analyzed the effect of international in…
New framework tackles submodular welfare with multi-agent combinatorial bandits.
New bounds for high-dimensional sparse linear bandits, balancing information and regret.
Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) is a fundamental problem in power systems and electricity markets. In practical settings, SCUC is repeatedly solved via Mixed-Integer Linear Programming, sometimes multiple times per day, with only minor changes in input data. In this work, we propose a number of machine lear…
Study integrates reliability constraints into generation planning models.
Truckload brokerages, a $100 billion/year industry in the U.S., plays the critical role of matching shippers with carriers, often to move loads several days into the future. Brokerages not only have to find companies that will agree to move a load, the brokerage often has to find a price that both the shipper and carri…
The paper discusses the role of monetary policy when potential output depends on the inflation rate. If the intention of the central bank is to maximize actual output growth, then it has to be credibly committed to a strict inflation targeting rule, and to take the MOGIR (the Maximizing Output Growth Inflation Rate) as…
This paper introduces modal epistemic tools for risk management.
Paper predicts crimes using historical data and machine learning.
Paper studies zero-sum games with noisy observations and identifies equilibrium conditions.
The paper minimizes Borda regret in dueling bandits models.
Investors benefit from long horizons in a market with mean-reverting equity returns.
In the current environment of financial distress, many governments are likely to soon become major holders of financial assets, but the policy debate focuses only on the likelihood and extent of short-term market stabilization. This paper shows that government intervention and propping up are likely to lead to long-ter…
Optimal algorithm for linear bandits on ellipsoids with minimax regret bound.
We apply multiple testing procedures to the validation of estimated default probabilities in credit rating systems. The goal is to identify rating classes for which the probability of default is estimated inaccurately, while still maintaining a predefined level of committing type I errors as measured by the familywise …
This paper characterizes the conditional distribution properties of the finite sample ridge regression estimator and uses that result to evaluate total regression and generalization errors that incorporate the inaccuracies committed at the time of parameter estimation. The paper provides explicit formulas for those err…
New method shows multi-objective bandits are not harder than single-objective ones.
Before a person can be prosecuted and convicted for insider trading, he must first execute the overt act of trading. If no sale of security is consummated, no crime is also consummated. However, through a complex and insidious combination of various financial instruments, one can capture the same amount of gains from i…
Scaling clustering algorithms to massive data sets is a challenging task. Recently, several successful approaches based on data summarization methods, such as coresets and sketches, were proposed. While these techniques provide provably good and small summaries, they are inherently problem dependent - the practitioner …
We study the problem of regret minimization in partially observable linear quadratic control systems when the model dynamics are unknown a priori. We propose ExpCommit, an explore-then-commit algorithm that learns the model Markov parameters and then follows the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty to desig…
This paper considers the problem of consumption and investment in a financial market within a continuous time stochastic economy. The investor exhibits a change in the discount rate. The investment opportunities are a stock and a riskless account. The market coefficients and discount factor switch according to a finite…
Lock-in, the escalating commitment of decision-makers to an ineffective course of action, has the potential to explain the large cost overruns in large scale transportation infrastructure projects. Lock-in can occur both at the decision-making level (before the decision to build) and at the project level (after the dec…
This paper solves a financial portfolio selection problem in incomplete markets.
Foresight Arena benchmarks AI forecasting on real-world markets, isolating predictive edge.
Settings such as lending and policing can be modeled by a centralized agent allocating a resource (loans or police officers) amongst several groups, in order to maximize some objective (loans given that are repaid or criminals that are apprehended). Often in such problems fairness is also a concern. A natural notion of…
We consider continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with bankruptcy prohibition under convex cone portfolio constraints. This is a long-standing and difficult problem not only because of its theoretical significance, but also for its practical importance. First of all, we transform the above problem into an e…
The way developers collaborate inside and particularly across teams often escapes management's attention, despite a formal organization with designated teams being defined. Observability of the actual, organically formed engineering structure provides decision makers invaluable additional tools to manage their talent p…
Non-availability of reliable and sustainable electric power is a major problem in the developing world. Renewable energy sources like solar are not very lucrative in the current stage due to various uncertainties like weather, storage, land use among others. There also exists various other issues like mis-commitment of…