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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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1122 · Apr 202419922001200920172026
23 results for AUC-ROC

LNK improves uncertainty estimation for molecular dynamics, reducing errors by up to 2.5 times.

problem Uncertainty estimation for molecular force fields to improve model reliability.
method LNK: Gaussian Process-based extension to GNNs addressing six desiderata.
result LNK reduces out-of-equilibrium detection errors by up to 2.5 times compared to existing methods.

Transformer model outperforms classical methods in childhood anemia prediction across diverse countries.

problem Generalizing childhood anemia prediction models across different countries and data scarcity.
method Transformer-based tabular foundation model compared to classical supervised methods using DHS data.
result Transformer model achieves lower Brier score and ECE in low-data settings, outperforming classical models.

Study uses machine learning to predict potato clones suitable for processing.

problem Efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant potato varieties.
method Leveraged machine learning algorithms on Russet potato clones data from Oregon.
result Non-linear models like SVM and HGBC outperform traditional linear models in agricultural trials.

In medicine, both ethical and monetary costs of incorrect predictions can be significant, and the complexity of the problems often necessitates increasingly complex models. Recent work has shown that changing just the random seed is enough for otherwise well-tuned deep neural networks to vary in their individual predic…

2019-06-10abs ↗pdf ↗

New methods predict language model out-of-distribution behaviors using causal mechanisms.

problem Predicting how language models behave on unseen data.
method Two methods: counterfactual simulation and value probing.
result Both methods achieve high AUC-ROC and outperform causal-agnostic approaches in out-of-distribution settings.

This review examines deep learning in financial fraud detection over 5 years.

problem Improving deep learning techniques for financial fraud detection.
method Systematic literature review of 57 studies using performance metrics.
result Deep learning models enhance fraud detection across various financial domains.

Study finds AUC is most consistent across different prevalence in binary classification.

problem Consistency of model evaluation metrics across varying prevalence in binary classification.
method Analysis of 156 data scenarios with 18 metrics, 5 models, and a random guess model.
result AUC has the smallest variance in evaluating individual models and ranking of models.

Bayesian framework improves financial risk management and compliance.

problem Uncertainty in financial risk forecasting and compliance.
method Integrated Bayesian analytics framework for precise uncertainty quantification.
result Proposed DLM model produces more accurate VaR estimates compared to baseline models.

A new framework separates classifier calibration and discrimination.

problem Combining reliability and resolution in probabilistic predictions.
method Manokhin Probability Matrix separates reliability and resolution using Spiegelhalter Z-statistic and AUC-ROC.
result Classifiers are categorized into four archetypes: Eagle, Bull, Sloth, and Mole.

Optimizes partial AUC across various FPRs for machine learning models.

problem Lack of scalable algorithms for optimizing partial AUC in a range of FPRs.
method Formulated as a non-smooth DC program, developed an efficient approximated gradient descent method using Moreau envelope smoothing.
result Achieved a complexity of O(1/ε6)O(1/ε^6) for finding nearly εε-critical solutions.

CCI combines Bayesian and gradient boosting to create fair, reliable credit risk scores.

problem Tackles high-stakes lending decisions with changing data distributions and fairness constraints.
method Combines Bayesian neural risk scorer and fairness-constrained gradient boosting with shift-aware fusion.
result CCI achieves best trade-off between discrimination, calibration, stability, and fairness.

Study compares various calibration methods for binary classification tasks.

problem Improving probabilistic predictions in binary classification models.
method Benchmarked 21 classifiers using 5 calibration methods on real data.
result Venn-Abers predictors and Beta calibration show the largest log-loss reductions.

Paper proposes RAN for better anomaly detection in time series data.

problem Anomaly detection algorithms often fail to accurately detect anomalies due to incomplete reconstruction of anomaly data.
method RAN uses adversarial learning and latent vector-constrained Autoencoder to ensure consistent reconstruction of anomaly data.
result RAN outperforms other algorithms in detecting meaningful anomalies with higher AUC-ROC scores.