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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,982 papers · 148 categories

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129258387516 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for cognitive prediction

New cognitive model priors improve human decision prediction.

problem Predicting human decisions with high precision remains challenging.
method Pretrained neural networks on synthetic data generated by cognitive models, fine-tuning on real human data.
result Fine-tuned neural networks achieve unprecedented state-of-the-art improvements on benchmark datasets.

Accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) entails clinical evaluation of multiple cognition metrics and biomarkers. Metrics such as the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive test (ADAS-cog) comprise multiple subscores that quantify different aspects of a patient's cognitive state such as learning, memor…

2017-06-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Study identifies key MRI features for predicting cognitive performance after mTBI.

problem Identify relevant diffusion MRI metrics for cognitive functions in mTBI patients.
method Proposes a novel feature selection method combining best-first search with genetic algorithm crossover.
result Achieves significantly more accurate predictions than other feature selection algorithms.

Cognitive abstraction metrics predict deep neural networks' generalization ability.

problem Understanding deep neural networks' generalization ability.
method Defined Cognitive Neural Activation (CNA) metric based on information complexity and activation patterns.
result CNA is highly predictive of generalization ability, outperforming other metrics.

Ensemble model predicts AD progression from CN status with high accuracy.

problem Early prediction of clinical progression from cognitively normal to mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease.
method Ensemble survival analysis combining penalized Cox regression, advanced survival models, and aggregation techniques.
result Ensemble model achieved peak C-index of 0.907 and integrated time-dependent AUC of 0.904, outperforming baseline models.

Imaging neuroscience links brain activation maps to behavior and cognition via correlational studies. Due to the nature of the individual experiments, based on eliciting neural response from a small number of stimuli, this link is incomplete, and unidirectional from the causal point of view. To come to conclusions on t…

2013-11-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Model shows AI adoption amplifies financial market risk through prediction, herding, and cognitive dependency.

problem Systemic risk in financial markets due to AI adoption.
method Developed a unified model within an extended rational expectations framework, incorporating endogenous adoption, performative prediction, algorithmic herding, and cognitive dependency.
result Systemic risk multiplier grows superlinearly with AI penetration, implying tail-loss amplification of 18-54%.

A strategy for spectrum sharing in CRNs with multiple PT power levels.

problem Efficient spectrum usage for secondary users in CRNs with multiple PT power levels.
method Data-driven/machine learning based multi-level spectrum sensing and prediction-transmission structures.
result The proposed strategy effectively aligns the ST with the PT power levels, improving spectrum usage.

StackNet predicts fluid intelligence from brain images of adolescents.

problem Predicting fluid intelligence in adolescents using brain imaging.
method Feature extraction, normalization, denoising, selection, StackNet architecture, 11 models, 3 layers, 10-fold cross-validation.
result StackNet achieves mean squared errors of 82.42 on training/validation and 94.25 on testing.

The paper proposes a new framework to generate synthetic data with human-like imperfections to prevent model collapse.

problem Model collapse due to statistical optimization of synthetic data.
method Introduces Prompt-driven Cognitive Computing Framework (PMCSF) with Cognitive State Decoder (CSD) and Cognitive Text Encoder (CTE).
result The framework generates text with cognitive imperfections, reducing maximum drawdown and delivering defensive alpha.

Machine learning models predict depression risk based on various factors.

problem Identifying individuals at greatest risk for depression.
method Random Effects/Expectation Maximization (RE-EM) trees and Mixed Effects Random Forest (MERF) algorithms.
result Machine learning models accurately predict depression severity and identify key predictors.

An artificial agent for financial risk and returns' prediction is built with a modular cognitive system comprised of interconnected recurrent neural networks, such that the agent learns to predict the financial returns, and learns to predict the squared deviation around these predicted returns. These two expectations a…

2018-06-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Personalized model improves ADAS-Cog13 cognitive score forecasting.

problem Improving accuracy in predicting cognitive changes in Alzheimer's Disease.
method Meta-Weighted Gaussian Process Experts (pGPE) model for personalized forecasting.
result Meta-weighting of expert models leads to significant improvements in forecasting accuracy.

Study shows cognitive load impacts financial market efficiency, especially for less sophisticated investors.

problem Cognitive load's effect on financial market information processing.
method Developed a theoretical framework and tested it with exogenous disclosure complexity variation.
result Cognitive load significantly impairs price discovery, particularly for less sophisticated investors.

A cognitive model of human learning provides information about skills a learner must acquire to perform accurately in a task domain. Cognitive models of learning are not only of scientific interest, but are also valuable in adaptive online tutoring systems. A more accurate model yields more effective tutoring through b…

2018-06-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Pension benefits in rural China lead to cognitive decline among the elderly.

problem Cognitive decline in late adulthood among rural Chinese elderly.
method Examined the effects of a new pension scheme on cognitive performance.
result Pension benefits negatively impact cognitive functioning, particularly delayed recall.

Efficient system classifies EEG signals for cognitive tasks using nuclear features.

problem Classification of raw EEG signals for cognitive tasks is challenging.
method Singular value decomposition for computing dominant variances of EEG signals, using them as nuclear features, and a simple classifier.
result Nuclear features from frontal brain region achieved 100% prediction accuracy.

In the eyes of a rationalist like Descartes or Spinoza, human reasoning is flawless, marching toward uncovering ultimate truth. A few centuries later, however, culminating in the work of Kahneman and Tversky, human reasoning was portrayed as anything but flawless, filled with numerous misjudgments, biases, and cognitiv…

2018-10-15abs ↗pdf ↗

NeuroQuery synthesizes brain mapping evidence across diverse concepts.

problem Lack of comprehensive meta-analysis of human brain mapping across different mental processes and mechanisms.
method A multivariate model that predicts the spatial distribution of neurological observations given text describing an experiment, cognitive process, or disease.
result Captures relationships and neural correlates of 7,547 neuroscience terms across 13,459 neuroimaging publications.

The paper investigates how ambiguous data and cognitive biases affect machine learning in humanitarian decision making.

problem Ambiguous data and cognitive biases impact the interpretability of machine learning models in humanitarian decision making.
method The study will explore the effects of data ambiguity and cognitive biases on machine learning algorithms in humanitarian contexts.
result The research aims to uncover the specific ways in which ambiguous data and cognitive biases influence the interpretability of machine learning models in humanitarian decision making.

Develops LSTM for predicting neuronal dynamics over long time-horizons.

problem Understanding and controlling complex brain behaviors.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network architecture for multi-time step predictions.
result LSTM improves short time-horizon prediction accuracy and multi-time step predictions of neuronal dynamics.

New method identifies latent variables in cognitive models using neural networks.

problem Inference of latent variables in complex cognitive models is limited.
method Recurrent neural networks and simulation-based inference for latent variable sequences.
result Extends neural Bayes estimation to broader classes of cognitive models.

New method predicts Alzheimer's risk with individual uncertainty estimates.

problem Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease.
method Persistent homology of clinical trajectories combined with stacking ensemble.
result Pipeline achieves high accuracy and individual-level uncertainty quantification.

We propose a primitive called PJOIN, for "predictive join," which combines and extends the operations JOIN and LINK, which Valiant proposed as the basis of a computational theory of cortex. We show that PJOIN can be implemented in Valiant's model. We also show that, using PJOIN, certain reasonably complex learning and …

2014-12-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning detects and classifies cognitive distortions in mental health texts.

problem Detect and classify cognitive distortions in mental health texts to improve treatment.
method Machine learning framework using crowdsourced and therapy dataset.
result Model achieved high F1 scores for detecting and classifying cognitive distortions.

New filters improve radar target inference in complex scenarios.

problem Improving radar target inference in highly non-linear system models.
method Developed inverse cubature Kalman filter (I-CKF), inverse quadrature Kalman filter (I-QKF), and inverse cubature-quadrature Kalman filter (I-CQKF) for non-linear systems.
result Numerical experiments show improved estimation accuracy compared to existing methods.