A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study shows cognitive load impacts financial market efficiency, especially for less sophisticated investors.
UniPhyNet improves cognitive load classification accuracy using EEG, ECG, and EDA signals.
Direction of arrival (DoA) estimation of targets improves with the number of elements employed by a phased array radar antenna. Since larger arrays have high associated cost, area and computational load, there is recent interest in thinning the antenna arrays without loss of far-field DoA accuracy. In this context, a c…
While theories postulating a dual cognitive system take hold, quantitative confirmations are still needed to understand and identify interactions between the two systems or conflict events. Eye movements are among the most direct markers of the individual attentive load and may serve as an important proxy of informatio…
We tackle the problem of constructive preference elicitation, that is the problem of learning user preferences over very large decision problems, involving a combinatorial space of possible outcomes. In this setting, the suggested configuration is synthesized on-the-fly by solving a constrained optimization problem, wh…
Recent advances in spoken language technologies and the introduction of many customer facing products, have given rise to a wide customer reliance on smart personal assistants for many of their daily tasks. In this paper, we present a system to reduce users' cognitive load by extending personal assistants with long-ter…
Framework integrates brain connectivity data for clinical predictions.
Interactive Machine Learning is concerned with creating systems that operate in environments alongside humans to achieve a task. A typical use is to extend or amplify the capabilities of a human in cognitive or physical ways, requiring the machine to adapt to the users' intentions and preferences. Often, this takes the…
Traditional load analysis is facing challenges with the new electricity usage patterns due to demand response as well as increasing deployment of distributed generations, including photovoltaics (PV), electric vehicles (EV), and energy storage systems (ESS). At the transmission system, despite of irregular load behavio…
The paper proposes a new framework to generate synthetic data with human-like imperfections to prevent model collapse.
Training deep reinforcement learning agents complex behaviors in 3D virtual environments requires significant computational resources. This is especially true in environments with high degrees of aliasing, where many states share nearly identical visual features. Minecraft is an exemplar of such an environment. We hypo…
Enhances load forecasting for multiple entities with dynamic similarities.
Bayesian methods improve text annotation quality.
Data loading can dominate deep neural network training time on large-scale systems. We present a comprehensive study on accelerating data loading performance in large-scale distributed training. We first identify performance and scalability issues in current data loading implementations. We then propose optimizations t…
A cognitive model of human learning provides information about skills a learner must acquire to perform accurately in a task domain. Cognitive models of learning are not only of scientific interest, but are also valuable in adaptive online tutoring systems. A more accurate model yields more effective tutoring through b…
Pension benefits in rural China lead to cognitive decline among the elderly.
HIV RNA viral load (VL) is an important outcome variable in studies of HIV infected persons. There exists only a handful of methods which classify patients by viral load patterns. Most methods place limits on the use of viral load measurements, are often specific to a particular study design, and do not account for com…
In (exploratory) factor analysis, the loading matrix is identified only up to orthogonal rotation. For identifiability, one thus often takes the loading matrix to be lower triangular with positive diagonal entries. In Bayesian inference, a standard practice is then to specify a prior under which the loadings are indepe…
The ubiquity of smartphone usage in many people's lives make it a rich source of information about a person's mental and cognitive state. In this work we analyze 12 weeks of phone usage data from 113 older adults, 31 with diagnosed cognitive impairment and 82 without. We develop structured models of users' smartphone i…
Cognitive neuroscience is enjoying rapid increase in extensive public brain-imaging datasets. It opens the door to large-scale statistical models. Finding a unified perspective for all available data calls for scalable and automated solutions to an old challenge: how to aggregate heterogeneous information on brain func…
In the eyes of a rationalist like Descartes or Spinoza, human reasoning is flawless, marching toward uncovering ultimate truth. A few centuries later, however, culminating in the work of Kahneman and Tversky, human reasoning was portrayed as anything but flawless, filled with numerous misjudgments, biases, and cognitiv…
Paper uses econometrics time series model with T-student Distribution for short-term load forecasting.
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Though many STLF methods were proposed over the past decades, most of them focused on loads at high aggregation levels only. Thus, low-aggregation load forecast still requires further research and development. Comp…
New method infers viral load from pooled tests.
We use online convex optimization (OCO) for setpoint tracking with uncertain, flexible loads. We consider full feedback from the loads, bandit feedback, and two intermediate types of feedback: partial bandit where a subset of the loads are individually observed and the rest are observed in aggregate, and Bernoulli feed…
With the increasing complexity of modern power systems, conventional dynamic load modeling with ZIP and induction motors (ZIP + IM) is no longer adequate to address the current load characteristic transitions. In recent years, the WECC composite load model (WECC CLM) has shown to effectively capture the dynamic load re…
Study shows integrating acoustic features in financial forecasting models can degrade performance.
Accurate short-term load forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of the power sector. Forecasting load at a fine granularity such as hourly loads of individual households is challenging due to higher volatility and inherent stochasticity. At the aggregate levels, such as monthly load at a grid, the uncerta…
This paper uses a diffusion model to forecast electrical loads with uncertainty.
Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.
New method identifies latent variables in cognitive models using neural networks.
The paper is motivated by a problem concerning the monotonicity of insurance premiums with respect to their loading parameter: the larger the parameter, the larger the insurance premium is expected to be. This property, usually called loading monotonicity, is satisfied by premiums that appear in the literature. The inc…
Deep learning improves weather modeling for electricity load forecasting.
This paper monetizes customer load data to boost energy retailer profits.
Study finds cherry-picking load shaping strategies outperforms others in reducing grid CO2 emissions.
While the interpretability of machine learning models is often equated with their mere syntactic comprehensibility, we think that interpretability goes beyond that, and that human interpretability should also be investigated from the point of view of cognitive science. The goal of this paper is to discuss to what exten…
Develops a method to analyze SARS-CoV-2 viral load vs. age, finding a significant increase.
Adaptive probabilistic load forecasting improves performance in power systems.
Study links cognitive effort to thermodynamic principles, optimizing decision-making.
Machine learning reconstructs aerodynamic forces from noisy data.
This paper presents a novel deep learning architecture for short term load forecasting of building energy loads. The architecture is based on a simple base learner and multiple boosting systems that are modelled as a single deep neural network. The architecture transforms the original multivariate time series into mult…
In this paper a new method for heat load prediction in district energy systems is proposed. The method uses a nominal model for the prediction of the outdoor temperature dependent space heating load, and a data driven latent variable model to predict the time dependent residual heat load. The residual heat load arises …
Model uses GAMs to forecast hourly electricity load weeks to one year ahead.
We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…
New filters improve radar target inference in complex scenarios.
The paper proposes a new method for probabilistic load forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows.
As an important part of the power system, power load forecasting directly affects the national economy. The data shows that improving the load forecasting accuracy by 0.01% can save millions of dollars for the power industry. Therefore, improving the accuracy of power load forecasting has always been the pursuing goals…
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This…