Bayesian neural networks learn weights with closed-form updates.
problem Efficiently learning Bayesian neural networks with closed-form updates.
method Closed-form Bayesian inference for online learning of Gaussian-weighted BNNs.
result Closed-form expressions for sequential/online training of BNNs.
Paper introduces robust Gaussian process regression without sacrificing computational efficiency.
problem Violation of independent and identically distributed Gaussian observation noise assumption in Gaussian process regression.
method Proves robust and conjugate Gaussian process regression (RCGP) at no additional cost using generalised Bayesian inference.
result RCGP enables exact conjugate closed form updates in all settings where standard GPs admit them.
We consider the inference of the structure of an undirected graphical model in an exact Bayesian framework. More specifically we aim at achieving the inference with close-form posteriors, avoiding any sampling step. This task would be intractable without any restriction on the considered graphs, so we limit our explora…
Bayesian Perceptron offers fully Bayesian neural networks without complex computations.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in neural networks.
method Bayesian inference framework for perceptron training and predictions in closed-form.
result Analytical expressions for perceptron's output and weight learning provided.
This paper provides a dictionary of closed-form kernel mean embeddings.
problem Challenges in deriving closed-form kernel mean embeddings.
method Comprehensive dictionary and practical tools for deriving new embeddings.
result Provides a Python library with minimal implementations of embeddings.
TinyBayes detects crop diseases from images on edge devices with high accuracy and minimal resources.
problem Automated disease detection for cocoa crops in resource-constrained settings.
method Combines YOLOv8-Nano for lesion localisation, MobileNetV3-Small for feature extraction, and Jacobi prior for Bayesian classification.
result Achieves 78.7% accuracy on Amini Cocoa Contamination Challenge dataset with 9.5 MB model size and 150 ms inference time.
Bayesian inference uses Stein discrepancy for robustness in intractable likelihoods.
problem Intractable likelihoods in Bayesian inference.
method Generalised Bayesian inference with Stein discrepancy as the loss function.
result Robust generalised posteriors with closed form or accessible using MCMC.
This paper introduces NPR, a technique to improve Bayesian inference for multi-modal, high-dimensional simulations.
problem Challenges in Bayesian inference for multi-modal, high-dimensional simulations.
method Introduces Neural Posterior Regularization (NPR) to enforce exploration of input parameter space.
result Empirically validated that NPR significantly improves performance on various simulation tasks.
Bayesian inference for wide neural networks using Edgeworth expansion.
problem Analyzing the non-Gaussian behavior of wide neural networks in Bayesian inference.
method Proposed a non-Gaussian distribution using multivariate Edgeworth expansion for finite-width neural networks.
result Derived non-Gaussian posterior distribution in Bayesian regression tasks.
We present a class of models that, via a simple construction, enables exact, incremental, non-parametric, polynomial-time, Bayesian inference of conditional measures. The approach relies upon creating a sequence of covers on the conditioning variable and maintaining a different model for each set within a cover. Infere…
Paper shows how to infer hidden states in neural networks analytically.
problem Intractability of Bayesian inference for neural networks.
method Leverage tractable approximate Gaussian inference (TAGI) for hidden states inference.
result Demonstrates inference of hidden states through constraints for various applications.
Exact Bayesian inference for discrete models using probability generating functions.
problem Discrete statistical models with infinite support and continuous priors.
method Probabilistic programming language with automatic differentiation and probability generating functions.
result Genfer tool provides exact solutions for a wide range of inference problems.
Proposes efficient Bayesian logistic regression for large sparse datasets.
problem Infeasibility of theoretical Bayesian methods for large sparse feature sets.
method Low complexity analytical approximations for sparse online logistic and probit regressions.
result Empirical results show superior performance compared to more complex methods.
In likelihood-free settings where likelihood evaluations are intractable, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) addresses the formidable inference task to discover plausible parameters of simulation programs that explain the observations. However, they demand large quantities of simulation calls. Critically, hyperpara…
Bayesian causal inference method improves accuracy over traditional approaches.
problem Bayesian marginalisation over causal models is computationally infeasible.
method Decomposes structure marginalisation into causal orders and DAGs, using Gaussian processes for mechanisms and ARCO for orders.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art in structure learning and inference.
Some statistical models are specified via a data generating process for which the likelihood function cannot be computed in closed form. Standard likelihood-based inference is then not feasible but the model parameters can be inferred by finding the values which yield simulated data that resemble the observed data. Thi…
MC Dropout is re-evaluated as not Bayesian, affecting predictive posterior and multimodality.
problem MC Dropout's Bayesian properties and predictive posterior are questioned.
method Re-evaluation of MC Dropout's properties, including a new VI engine in pytorch.
result MC Dropout does not produce a faithful Bayesian predictive posterior.
Sparse Gaussian Processes simplify GP inference for large datasets.
problem Efficiently handling large datasets in Gaussian Process models.
method Sparse Gaussian Processes combined with variational inference.
result Sparse GPs enable approximate inference with reduced memory and computational requirements.
Mean-field variational methods are widely used for approximate posterior inference in many probabilistic models. In a typical application, mean-field methods approximately compute the posterior with a coordinate-ascent optimization algorithm. When the model is conditionally conjugate, the coordinate updates are easily …
Mean-field variational inference is a method for approximate Bayesian posterior inference. It approximates a full posterior distribution with a factorized set of distributions by maximizing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood. This requires the ability to integrate a sum of terms in the log joint likelihood using …
A new method improves Bayesian deep learning by balancing scalability and accuracy.
problem Scalability issues in Bayesian neural networks.
method Collapsed inference scheme that performs Bayesian model averaging using collapsed samples.
result Significant improvements over existing methods in predictive performance and uncertainty estimation.
New method simplifies Bayesian analysis for categorical data.
problem Difficulties in scaling GLMs for categorical data due to non-conjugacy or posterior dependencies.
method Defining CB models with binary approximations for tractable inference.
result Fast and scalable inference for thousands of categories, outperforming competitors.
Robust Kalman filtering method for outlier detection.
problem Outliers and misspecified measurement models in state-space models.
method Combines generalised Bayesian inference with Kalman filters for robustness and efficiency.
result Matches or outperforms other robust filtering methods at lower computational cost.
Paper uses learned summary statistics for Bayesian inference with difficult likelihood functions.
problem Difficult to obtain exact likelihood function for observation data and simulation model.
method Simulation-based inference with learned summary statistics, using Cressie-Read discrepancy criterion.
result Effective inference performed over selected sample sets of observation data.
A new method for inferring latent states in Markov jump processes.
problem Intractable exact inference for Markov jump processes.
method Entropic matching within expectation propagation.
result Superior performance in approximating the mean of the posterior process.
CIFs improve VI by providing flexible posteriors for complex topologies.
problem Complex posterior distributions in VI problems.
method Using CIFs as part of an auxiliary VI scheme, exploiting conditional independence.
result CIFs yield low-variance estimators of model evidence and improve VI results.
Bayesian Predictive Coding improves deep learning uncertainty quantification.
problem Limitations of maximum a posteriori and maximum likelihood estimates in predictive coding.
method Developed Bayesian Predictive Coding (BPC) that estimates a posterior distribution over network parameters.
result BPC offers comparable uncertainty quantification to existing methods in Bayesian deep learning and improves convergence properties.
We present a Bayesian model selection approach to estimate the intrinsic dimensionality of a high-dimensional dataset. To this end, we introduce a novel formulation of the probabilisitic principal component analysis model based on a normal-gamma prior distribution. In this context, we exhibit a closed-form expression o…
LF-IBIS learns optimal policies online without explicit likelihood.
problem Bayesian RL challenges due to intractable likelihood functions.
method Combines ABC with IBIS for online belief updates.
result Approximates posterior distributions for policies and parameters.
New method for Bayesian inference of Lévy-driven SDEs with jumps.
problem Bayesian inference for Lévy-driven SDEs is challenging due to discontinuities and heavy tails.
method Neural exponential tilting framework for variational inference.
result Accurately captures jump dynamics and reliable posterior inference in heavy-tailed regimes.
Paper extends multi-task Gaussian Cox processes for heterogeneous tasks.
problem Modeling multiple heterogeneous correlated tasks jointly.
method Data augmentation and mean-field approximation for non-conjugate Bayesian inference.
result Demonstrates improved performance and inference on synthetic and real data.
Introduces q-paths for generalizing geometric annealing paths in machine learning.
problem Limited applicability of existing path methods in machine learning.
method Develops a family of paths derived from a generalized mean, including geometric and arithmetic mixtures.
result Empirical gains in Bayesian inference and generative model evaluation.
Develops a variational method for ultrametric phylogenetic trees.
problem Accurate and efficient approximation of posterior distributions over trees in Bayesian phylogenetics.
method Variational Bayesian approach based on coalescent times of a single-linkage clustering.
result Achieves competitive accuracy with significantly fewer gradient evaluations.
Bayesian neural networks improve uncertainty calibration without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Bayesian neural networks struggle with uncertainty calibration and high-dimensional geometry.
method Model uncertainty only in weight directions using a von Mises-Fisher posterior on the unit sphere, deriving a compact KL term.
result A lightweight, dimension-aware variational unit improves calibration without sacrificing accuracy.
Proposes ABC method for discrete data, improving likelihood-free inference.
problem Discrete data likelihood-free inference problems.
method Population-based MCMC ABC framework with a new Markov kernel inspired by Differential Evolution.
result High potential and superiority of the new Markov kernel demonstrated.
BIF assesses feature importance using Dirichlet distribution and Bayesian inference.
problem Quantitative feature importance assessment in statistical models.
method Utilizes Dirichlet distribution for probabilistic feature importance assessment via approximate Bayesian inference.
result Learned importance provides relative significance and confidence quantification of features.
New method optimises worst-case risk under model uncertainty.
problem Minimizing expected risk under posterior beliefs leads to sub-optimal decisions due to model uncertainty.
method Distributionally Robust Optimisation with Bayesian Ambiguity Sets (DRO-BAS)
result Improved out-of-sample robustness in the Newsvendor problem.
Efficiently identifies important variables in binary outcomes using variational Bayes.
problem Bayesian variable selection for binary outcomes with computational challenges.
method Mean-field variational Bayes approximation with closed-form updates and efficient inference algorithm.
result Successfully identifies important variables and is orders of magnitude faster than MCMC.
This paper proposes an online tree-based Bayesian approach for reinforcement learning. For inference, we employ a generalised context tree model. This defines a distribution on multivariate Gaussian piecewise-linear models, which can be updated in closed form. The tree structure itself is constructed using the cover tr…
Paper develops robust Bayesian models for linear regression under adversarial perturbations.
problem Ensuring reliable machine learning models under data perturbations.
method Formulates adversarial Bregman divergence loss, computes adversarial perturbation, introduces adversarially robust posteriors, derives generalization certificates.
result Derives first rigorous generalization certificates for adversarially robust Bayesian linear regression.
A new multivariate stochastic volatility estimation procedure for financial time series is proposed. A Wishart autoregressive process is considered for the volatility precision covariance matrix, for the estimation of which a two step procedure is adopted. The first step is the conditional inference on the autoregressi…
Bayesian non-linear latent variable modeling for complex data.
problem Inference for GPLVMs is computationally limited and often leads to overfitting or underestimates uncertainty.
method Approximate Gaussian process mappings with random Fourier features for MCMC inference.
result Generalized RFLVMs perform well on various data types and applications.
Bayesian methods are appealing in their flexibility in modeling complex data and ability in capturing uncertainty in parameters. However, when Bayes' rule does not result in tractable closed-form, most approximate inference algorithms lack either scalability or rigorous guarantees. To tackle this challenge, we propose …
Transformers mimic Bayesian reasoning in controlled settings, revealing geometric mechanisms.
problem Verifying if transformers perform Bayesian reasoning rigorously in natural data.
method Constructing Bayesian wind tunnels with known posteriors and proving memorization impossibility.
result Transformers achieve 10−3-10−4 bit accuracy in Bayesian posteriors, while MLPs fail. NeuralSurv models survival analysis with Bayesian uncertainty.
problem Capturing time-varying risk relationships in survival analysis.
method Two-stage data-augmentation scheme, mean-field variational algorithm, coordinate-ascent updates, locally linearized Bayesian neural network.
result Delivers superior calibration compared to state-of-the-art models.
Improves posterior approximation speed for Dirichlet process mixture models.
problem Inefficiency of stochastic variational inference in large datasets.
method Uses stochastic gradient ascent with adaptive stepsize optimization.
result Adaptive stepsize improves speed and performance of posterior approximation.
A Bayesian treatment of latent directed graph structure for non-iid data is provided where each child datum is sampled with a directed conditional dependence on a single unknown parent datum. The latent graph structure is assumed to lie in the family of directed out-tree graphs which leads to efficient Bayesian inferen…
Bayesian framework integrates prior and data knowledge for nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Fusing diverse prior knowledge with data for accurate model learning.
method General-purpose Bayesian inference and learning framework combining explicit and implicit prior knowledge.
result Efficient parameter marginalization and closed-form densities for online and offline inference.