Optimizes marketing strategies with practical constraints.
problem Adjusting marketing activities with minimum and maximum changes.
method Formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear program (MINLP), reformulated for computational efficiency.
result Significant improvements in solution process for realistic problems.
Machine learning models trained on hospital data degrade over time due to changing practices.
problem Machine learning models trained on hospital data degrade over time due to changing practices.
method We augmented MIMIC with the year of care and showed that a model trained using standard feature representations will significantly degrade in quality over time.
result Clinically-oriented aggregates of raw features significantly mitigate future deterioration.
New algorithms detect changes in non-stationary MABs for better performance.
problem Non-stationary MAB environments where arm reward distributions change over time.
method Modular Detection Augmented Bandit (DAB) procedures with improved performance lower bounds.
result Modular DAB procedures achieve order-optimal regret bounds for various change detectors and bandit algorithms.
We consider the problem of quickest change-point detection in data streams. Classical change-point detection procedures, such as CUSUM, Shiryaev-Roberts and Posterior Probability statistics, are optimal only if the change-point model is known, which is an unrealistic assumption in typical applied problems. Instead we p…
New method detects changes in high-dimensional Markov processes without explicit likelihood evaluation.
problem Quickest change detection in Markov processes with unknown transition kernels.
method Learn conditional score from sample pairs, develop score-based CUSUM procedure.
result Exponential lower bounds on mean time to false alarm and asymptotic upper bounds on detection delay.
KQT-EWMA monitors multivariate data streams online with flexible and practical change detection.
problem Online monitoring of multivariate data streams for detecting changes.
method Combines Kernel-QuantTree histogram and EWMA statistic for non-parametric monitoring.
result Controls Average Run Length (ARL0) while achieving comparable detection delays.
Even though probabilistic treatments of neural networks have a long history, they have not found widespread use in practice. Sampling approaches are often too slow already for simple networks. The size of the inputs and the depth of typical CNN architectures in computer vision only compound this problem. Uncertainty in…
This article asks how planning scholarship may effectively gain impact in planning practice through media exposure. In liberal democracies the public sphere is dominated by mass media. Therefore, working with such media is a prerequisite for effective public impact of planning research. Using the example of megaproject…
CCVA adjusts for climate change impacts on financial valuation.
problem Climate change impacts on financial valuation are currently ignored.
method Flexible parameterization to capture climate impacts on hazard rates.
result Significant impacts on interest rate swaps even with slow climate change.
New algorithm detects changes in high-dimensional data with mean and variance.
problem Challenges in detecting changes in high-dimensional data with mean and variance.
method Complete graph-based approach to detect changes of mean and variance from low to high-dimensional online data.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods in terms of detection power.
Both in practice and in the academic literature, models for setting margin requirements in futures markets classically use daily closing price changes. However, as well documented by research on high-frequency data, financial markets have recently shown high intraday volatility, which could bring more risk than expecte…
SoccerCPD detects tactical changes in soccer matches using spatiotemporal tracking data.
problem Detecting consistent team formations in fluid sports like soccer.
method Two-step change-point detection: formation and role changes.
result Accurately detects tactical changes and estimates formation and role assignments.
DAL enhances black-box bandit algorithms for non-stationary environments.
problem Non-stationary environments in bandit problems.
method DAL combines any stationary bandit algorithm with a change detector.
result DAL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various non-stationary scenarios.
Paper introduces a novel framework for recognizing dynamic ranking structures in preference-based data.
problem Complex and noisy preference-based data often hide underlying homogeneous structures.
method Developed an approach to identify dynamic ranking groups using temporal penalties and spectral estimation. Introduced an objective function for detecting structural changes.
result Consistent recognition of ranking groups and structural changes in preference-based data.
New algorithm detects changes quickly without knowing parameters, near optimally.
problem Quickest change detection with unknown parameters.
method Leverages theoretical asymptotic properties to derive a scalable approximate algorithm with near optimal performance.
result Detects changes in constant complexity with near optimal performance.
Overlay framework simplifies exotic derivative pricing.
problem Inconsistent pricing models for exotics.
method Combines path reweighting and conic optimisation.
result Practically model-independent price bands for exotics.
This paper improves change-point detection for complex data streams using denoising score matching.
problem Timely identification of distributional shifts in high-dimensional, complex data streams.
method Score-based CUSUM change-point detection with denoising score matching.
result Denoising score matching enhances detection power by effectively controlling noise scale.
MOSAIC detects change points in dynamic networks with low-rank and sparse changes.
problem Detecting change points in dynamic networks with specific structural properties.
method Eigen-decomposition-based test with screened signals and residual-based adjustment.
result MOSAIC achieves minimax-optimal detection and testing rates.
Develops methods for inference after detecting a change in sequential data.
problem Inference after a detected change in sequential data.
method General framework for constructing confidence sets using only data up to a stopping time.
result First general method for sequential changepoint localization with theoretical guarantees.
A method identifies abrupt changes in functions with fixed confidence under noisy feedback.
problem Identifying abrupt changes in piecewise constant functions quickly and with certainty.
method Fixed-confidence piecewise constant bandit problem, focusing sampling efforts near change points.
result Asymptotically optimal method proven computationally efficient and effective in experiments.
Method distinguishes between failures and domain shifts in industrial data streams.
problem Confusing domain shifts with failures in industrial data.
method Modified Page-Hinkley changepoint detector and supervised domain-adaptation-based anomaly detection.
result Allows differentiation between failures and domain shifts.
FOCuS detects changes in mean from high-frequency data efficiently.
problem Detecting changes in high-frequency data with limited resources.
method FOCuS algorithm that runs multiple window sizes and change sizes simultaneously.
result FOCuS achieves state-of-the-art performance in detecting anomalies.
New method detects changes in high-dimensional Gaussian data streams.
problem Detecting changes in high-dimensional data streams.
method Likelihood ratio tests across scales and coordinates.
result Patience (null rejection rate) at desired level, response delay under alternative.
Paper presents adaptive minimax risk classifiers for multidimensional concept drift.
problem Multidimensional concept drift in supervised classification.
method Adaptive minimax risk classifiers (AMRCs) tracking multivariate and high-order distribution changes.
result AMRCs provide computable tight performance guarantees and improve classification.
Study validates capital structure theories in Indian public sector banks.
problem Understanding the impact of capital structure on financial performance in Indian banks.
method Developed theoretical framework from capital structure theories, tested hypotheses using statistical techniques.
result Established relation between debt component and financial performance variables.
CDSSD detects sparse changes in partially observable data streams.
problem Online change detection of sparse changes in partially observable high-dimensional data streams.
method Smooth-sparse decomposition, spike-slab variational Bayesian inference, adaptive sampling via Thompson sampling.
result CDSSD effectively detects sparse changes in partially observable data streams.
New method detects text changes under dependencies, outperforming baselines.
problem Detecting structural changes in m m m -dependent text data. method Kernel change-point detection under m m m -dependence. result Consistent and weakly consistent detection of change points in m m m -dependent text. A novel kernel learning framework detects abrupt changes in time series data.
problem Detecting abrupt changes in time series data with fewer assumptions.
method KL-CPD, a novel kernel learning framework that optimizes a lower bound of test power via an auxiliary generative model.
result Significantly outperformed other state-of-the-art methods in benchmark datasets and simulation studies.
Paper optimizes change detection in unnormalized distributions.
problem Detecting changes in unnormalized pre- and post-change distributions.
method Log-Partition Approximation Cumulative Sum (LPA-CUSUM) algorithm based on thermodynamic integration.
result Asymptotically optimal performance achieved through unbiased estimation of CUSUM statistics.
ET-GP-UCB optimizes time-varying functions without knowing change rates.
problem Sequentially optimizing a time-varying objective function with unknown change rates.
method Event-triggered Bayesian optimization with adaptive resets based on probabilistic uniform error bounds.
result ET-GP-UCB outperforms other GP-UCB algorithms in synthetic and real-world data.
Embed-KCPD segments text without labels, outperforming baselines.
problem Unsupervised text segmentation is challenging due to lack of boundary labels.
method Embed-KCPD represents sentences as embeddings and estimates boundaries via penalized KCPD.
result Embed-KCPD outperforms strong unsupervised baselines across benchmarks.
Multi-armed bandit algorithms have become a reference solution for handling the explore/exploit dilemma in recommender systems, and many other important real-world problems, such as display advertisement. However, such algorithms usually assume a stationary reward distribution, which hardly holds in practice as users' …
New algorithm for multi-player bandits in changing environments.
problem Sequential action selection with collisions and adversarial losses.
method First provable Multi-player Bandit algorithm for changing environments.
result Resolves open problem in adversarial multi-player settings.
New method detects anomalies in systems influenced by their environment.
problem Detecting anomalies in systems under environmental influence.
method Adversarial learning and time series representation learning.
result Successfully addresses label sparsity and subjectivity in anomaly detection.
GLR-klUCB detects change-points in non-stationary bandits efficiently.
problem Non-stationary bandit problems with piecewise stationary behavior.
method Combines kl-UCB with a changepoint detector based on GLR.
result Achieves O ( T A Υ T log ( T ) ) O(\sqrt{TA Υ_T\log(T)}) O ( T A Υ T log ( T ) ) regret for some instances. Estimates change points in Weibull time series with copulas.
problem Change-point estimation for nonlinear Weibull time series with copula-based Markov models.
method Copula-based Markov chain model with Weibull marginal distributions, incorporating asymmetric dependence structures through Clayton and Joe copulas.
result Proposed method performs well in estimating change points and model parameters, demonstrated through extensive numerical studies and empirical application.
New method calibrates false detection rates in sequential change detection.
problem Challenges in setting time-invariant thresholds for false positives.
method Simulation-based approach to time-varying thresholds.
result Accurately targets desired expected runtime while keeping false positive rate constant.
New method detects changes in complex models using hierarchical latent-class models.
problem Detecting abrupt transitions in high-dimensional or heterogeneous models.
method Hierarchical latent-class model with CRP and EM algorithm for continual learning.
result The method reliably infers the number of latent classes and performs CPD.
Detects change points in time series focusing on specific components.
problem Identifying moments when specific components of multivariate time series change distributions.
method Two-stage non-parametric algorithm: causal structure learning followed by change point detection.
result Validated the approach on synthetic and real-world datasets.
This work introduces robust counterfactuals for neural networks that remain valid after minor model changes.
problem Generating counterfactual explanations that are robust to slight model changes.
method Introduces a measure called Stability to quantify robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes, and proposes practical relaxations.
result Counterfactuals with high Stability remain valid after potential model changes with high probability.
New statistical test for change-point detection using relative entropy.
problem Offline change-point detection using divergence metrics.
method Study of empirical relative entropy distributions, derivation of approximations, introduction of new Berry-Esseen bounds.
result Theoretical and practical validation of relative entropy for change-point detection.
New algorithm handles MDPs with unknown, changing rewards efficiently.
problem Handling MDPs with unknown, changing rewards in large state spaces.
method Developed an algorithm with O ( τ ( ln ∣ S ∣ + ln ∣ A ∣ ) T ln ( T ) ) O(\sqrt{τ(\ln|S|+\ln|A|)T}\ln(T)) O ( τ ( ln ∣ S ∣ + ln ∣ A ∣ ) T ln ( T )) regret bound and a modified algorithm with polynomial complexity. result Achieved state-of-the-art regret bounds for large scale MDPs with changing rewards.
Master algorithm fails to detect non-stationarity in practical settings.
problem Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning without prior knowledge.
method Master algorithm tested under various conditions, including piecewise stationary multi-armed bandits.
result Master's non-stationarity detection is ineffective for practical horizons, leading to performance similar to random restarting.
The paper develops a neural network-based method for detecting change points in large-scale time-evolving data.
problem Detecting and locating change points in multivariate time-evolving data.
method Two-step procedure involving neural network training and test error function calibration over moving windows.
result Consistent estimates for the number and locations of change points under temporal dependence.
AUCRSS detects change points in partially observed multivariate autocorrelated data.
problem Detecting change points in multivariate autocorrelated data with limited sensing resources.
method Adaptive Upper Confidence Region (AUCRSS) with state space model (SSM), adaptive sampling policy, and generalized likelihood ratio test.
result The method outperforms existing approaches in detecting change points efficiently.
Paper introduces WWAggr for ensemble CPD, improving accuracy and decision threshold selection.
problem Challenges in detecting abrupt distribution shifts in high-dimensional data streams.
method Introduces WWAggr, a novel task-specific ensemble aggregation method based on Wasserstein distance.
result Demonstrates WWAggr outperforms standard aggregation techniques and decision threshold selection.
ShapShift explains shifts in model predictions due to data distribution changes.
problem Prediction shifts caused by changes in input distribution.
method Subgroup Conditional Shapley Values applied to decision trees and ensembles.
result Simple, faithful, and near-complete explanations of prediction shifts across model classes.
Paper proposes semi-supervised learning using change points for sequence classification.
problem Limited labeled data for sequential sensor data classification.
method Change point detection for identifying class changes, semi-supervised learning with labeled and unlabeled data.
result Improved classification performance on human activity recognition datasets.