The paper critiques and expands on common evaluation metrics in machine learning.
problem The common evaluation metrics like Precision, Recall, F-Measure, and Rand Accuracy are biased and misleading.
method The paper introduces new measures like Informedness, Markedness, and Correlation to better reflect the quality of predictions.
result A system that performs worse in terms of Informedness can appear better using common measures like Precision and Recall.
New algorithms improve boosting by optimizing chance-corrected measures.
problem Improving boosting algorithms to use chance-corrected measures effectively.
method Developed new algorithms (AdaBook and Multibook) that optimize chance-corrected measures.
result AdaBook and Multibook outperform standard Multiboost or AdaBoost in multiclass situations.
Voltage control plays an important role in the operation of electricity distribution networks, especially with high penetration of distributed energy resources. These resources introduce significant and fast varying uncertainties. In this paper, we focus on reactive power compensation to control voltage in the presence…
New approach to compute generalization performance using known risk distribution.
problem Computing generalization performance in machine learning.
method Assumes known risk distribution ρ(r), computes expected error using empirical risk minimization, and considers power-law behavior of ρ(r). result Corrected typical behavior of generalization performance due to chance correlations in training set.
The lottery ticket hypothesis finds multiple winning sub-networks in neural networks.
problem Finding a single winning sub-network in neural networks.
method Analyzing neural networks trained in isolation and on different tasks.
result Neural networks contain multiple sub-networks that match the accuracy of the original network, not just one.
A new model of learning corrects for chance to improve learning outcomes.
problem The importance of chance-corrected measures in learning.
method Developed two models: Informatron and AdaBook, based on empirical psychological results.
result Chance correction facilitates learning, as shown by computational results.
In many scientific tasks we are interested in discovering whether there exist any correlations in our data. This raises many questions, such as how to reliably and interpretably measure correlation between a multivariate set of attributes, how to do so without having to make assumptions on distribution of the data or t…
Complex systems are typically represented by large ensembles of observations. Correlation matrices provide an efficient formal framework to extract information from such multivariate ensembles and identify in a quantifiable way patterns of activity that are reproducible with statistically significant frequency compared…
Three-candidate plurality voting is stable for small correlations.
problem Stability of plurality voting in small correlation scenarios.
method Calculus of variations and noise stability analysis.
result Proof of Plurality is Stablest Conjecture for 3 candidates.
Chance-constrained ActInf allows for small violations of constraints to drive goal-directed behavior.
problem Goal-directed behavior constrained by prior beliefs.
method Introducing chance constraints to ActInf, allowing for small violations of constraints.
result Chance-constrained ActInf allows for a trade-off between robust control and chance constraint violation.
The logic of uncertainty is not the logic of experience and as well as it is not the logic of chance. It is the logic of experience and chance. Experience and chance are two inseparable poles. These are two dual reflections of one essence, which is called co~event. The theory of experience and chance is the theory of c…
This work proposes an online learning approach to tighten constraints in stochastic control problems.
problem Solving chance-constrained stochastic optimal control problems is computationally challenging.
method Reformulate chance constraints as a binary regression problem and use a GP model to learn constraint-tightening parameters online.
result The approach tightens constraints more effectively, leading to lower costs in numerical experiments.
CPP solves chance constrained optimization problems with a framework that combines samples and quantile lemma.
problem Chance constrained optimization problems with constraints on random variables.
method CPP framework using samples and quantile lemma to transform into deterministic problem.
result CPP provides a posteriori guarantees on constraint satisfaction and can handle different types of chance constraints.
A scalable method for deep metric learning using chance constraints.
problem Improving deep metric learning by addressing feasibility issues.
method Relating DML to chance constraints, reformulating as a feasibility problem, and iteratively training proxies.
result The method effectively improves deep metric learning performance across multiple benchmarks.
Develops a new method for optimizing with uncertain data.
problem Uncertainty in real-world optimization problems.
method Combines chance constraints and constraint learning for mixed-integer linear optimization.
result Data-driven solution for setting probabilistic bounds on learned constraints.
The paper tackles online resource allocation with uncertain coefficients and chance constraints.
problem Online stochastic resource allocation problem with chance constraints.
method Linearization and primal-dual algorithms with heuristic corrections.
result Optimality gap and constraint violation are on the order of √n.
We propose a stochastic approximation method for approximating the efficient frontier of chance-constrained nonlinear programs. Our approach is based on a bi-objective viewpoint of chance-constrained programs that seeks solutions on the efficient frontier of optimal objective value versus risk of constraint violation. …
Chances of a gambler are always lower than chances of a casino in the case of an ideal, mathematically perfect roulette, if the capital of the gambler is limited and the minimum and maximum allowed bets are limited by the casino. However, a realistic roulette is not ideal: the probabilities of realisation of different …
We discuss the role of integrated chance constraints (ICC) as quantitative risk constraints in asset and liability management (ALM) for pension funds. We define two types of ICC: the one period integrated chance constraint (OICC) and the multiperiod integrated chance constraint (MICC). As their names suggest, the OICC …
NURD improves model performance by distilling representations independent of nuisance variables.
problem Models trained under spurious correlations may fail on data with different nuisance-label relationships.
method Developed Nuisance-Randomized Distillation (NURD) to find representations independent of nuisance variables.
result NURD finds representations that perform better regardless of nuisance-label relationships.
A new method uses GANs for robust optimization under uncertain data.
problem Optimizing supply chains under demand uncertainty with ambiguous distributions.
method Generative adversarial networks (GANs) for data-driven distributionally robust chance constrained programming.
result The approach effectively handles uncertain data distributions and improves supply chain optimization.
Study scaling of optimal solutions for reliability constraints in resource provisioning.
problem Achieving high reliability in resource provisioning under stringent requirements.
method Chance-constrained optimization, distributionally robust optimization, f-divergence balls, line search.
result Correct scaling properties of optimal decisions are preserved by using appropriate f-divergence balls, leading to conservative yet near-optimal solutions.
Blockwise bootstrap improves ASR performance testing for correlated data.
problem Testing reliability of WER improvements between ASR systems.
method Divide evaluation utterances into nonoverlapping blocks and resample these blocks.
result The variance estimator of absolute WER difference is consistent under mild conditions.
USS fund risk assessment shows low default chance but high overfunding.
problem Risk assessment of Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS) fund.
method Estimates risk of default and overfunding using a cautious model.
result Fund has less than 7% chance of defaulting but overfunding by at least £100bn.
The concepts of risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, and robust optimization have developed significantly over the last decade. Statistical learning community has also witnessed a rapid theoretical and applied growth by relying on these concepts. A modeling framework, called distributionally robust optimizat…
The study of the critical dynamics in complex systems is always interesting yet challenging. Here, we choose financial market as an example of a complex system, and do a comparative analyses of two stock markets - the S&P 500 (USA) and Nikkei 225 (JPN). Our analyses are based on the evolution of crosscorrelation struct…
FastAMI efficiently approximates AMI and SMI for large datasets.
problem Computational difficulty in comparing clusterings with an adjustment for chance.
method Monte Carlo-based approach to approximate AMI and SMI.
result FastAMI provides accurate results for large datasets.
GP CC-OPF solves uncertain power grid optimization with Gaussian Process.
problem Uncertainty in power grid operations due to high renewables integration.
method Data-driven Gaussian Process regression for solving non-convex CC-OPF problem.
result Effective economic dispatch optimization in uncertain power grids.
Paper proposes a fast data-driven AC-OPF method using sparse hybrid Gaussian processes.
problem Optimizing electricity generation and delivery under generation uncertainty in modern power grids.
method Data-driven approach using sparse hybrid Gaussian processes to model power flow equations.
result Shows up to two times faster and more accurate solutions compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Bayesian method optimizes uncertain constraints in black-box function optimization.
problem Optimizing black-box functions with uncertain environmental variables.
method Distributionally robust chance-constrained Bayesian optimization.
result The method can find accurate solutions with high probability in a finite number of trials.
Bayesian method approximates intractable stochastic programs with chance constraints.
problem Designing systems with stochastic constraints and chance constraints.
method Variational Bayesian approach to approximate posterior predictive integral.
result The solution set converges to the true solution set as the number of observations increases.
This paper provides a non-robust interpretation of the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem by relating the distributional uncertainties to the chance probabilities. Our analysis allows a decision-maker to interpret the size of the ambiguity set, which is often lack of business meaning, through the chance…
A new RL method handles uncertainty and constraints in real-time optimization.
problem Real-time optimization under process uncertainty and constraints.
method Chance-constrained reinforcement learning to handle probabilistic state constraints.
result Satisfies process constraints with high probability in real-time.
This paper proposes a method to safely adjust exploration in RL to satisfy constraints.
problem Unsafe exploration in reinforcement learning violates constraints on controlled object states.
method Automatic adjustment of exploration inputs and variance-covariance matrix for safety.
result The method guarantees satisfaction of joint chance constraints with specified probability.
Paper develops robust OPF method using contextual information.
problem Optimal Power Flow problem under incomplete uncertainty knowledge.
method Distributionally robust chance-constrained formulation with probability trimmings and optimal transport.
result Distributional robustness improves expected cost and system reliability.
New study shows limits to classifying brain activity from randomized EEG trials.
problem Classifying human brain activity from image stimuli using EEG is challenging.
method Used randomized trials on a larger dataset (20x) to avoid stimulus-time confound.
result Classification accuracy is marginally above chance and statistically significant.
Study uses EEG and ML to predict movie ratings with 72% accuracy.
problem Predicting consumer preferences for movie trailers.
method EEG and machine learning techniques to analyze brain responses to movie trailers.
result Predicted movie ratings with 72% accuracy.
Develops a machine learning approach for solving AC-OPF problems.
problem Nonlinear and computationally demanding AC chance-constrained OPF problem.
method Uses Gaussian process regression to approximate AC power flow equations.
result Demonstrates competitive and promising results compared to state-of-the-art approaches.
The study improves the perceptron's storage capacity by optimizing variable selection.
problem Distinguishing genuine structure from random correlations in high-dimensional data.
method Replica method from statistical mechanics for optimal variable selection.
result Optimal variable selection can surpass the Cover--Gardner bound for pattern classification.
Optimizes power systems with energy storage under uncertainty using scenario-based method.
problem Optimizing power systems with energy storage, intermittent renewable generation, and uncontrollable loads under uncertainty.
method Developed a novel solution method based on scenario optimization and strategic sampling to solve the chance-constrained optimal power system operation problem.
result The strategic sampling method significantly improves computational efficiency and data-driven convex approximation of power flow.
Improves logistic regression performance with nonconvex programming.
problem Stochastic generalized linear regression with chance constraints.
method Nonconvex programming techniques, clustering, quantile estimation.
result Over 1 to 2 percent improvement in model performance.
In this manuscript, we investigate deep invertible networks for EEG-based brain signal decoding and find them to generate realistic EEG signals as well as classify novel signals above chance. Further ideas for their regularization towards better decoding accuracies are discussed.
This note explores the mathematical theory to solve modern gamblers ruin problems. We establish a ruin framework and solve for the probability of bankruptcy. We also show how this relates to the expected time to bankruptcy and review the risk neutral probabilities associated an adjustment to asymmetrical views.
To understand the relationship between news sentiment and company stock price movements, and to better understand connectivity among companies, we define an algorithm for measuring sentiment-based network risk. The algorithm ranks companies in networks of co-occurrences, and measures sentiment-based risk, by calculatin…
Paper uses Gaussian processes to solve AC-OPF with renewable uncertainty.
problem Optimizing power grids with fluctuating renewable sources.
method Data-driven approach using Gaussian processes.
result Efficiently solves chance-constrained AC-OPF with uncertainty.
Investment challenge study finds luck and strategy equally important.
problem The role of luck and strategic considerations in M6 investment challenge performance.
method Introduced a stylized model to derive and analyze a portfolio strategy.
result Improving chances of winning without attaining abnormal returns possible.
Over the last years, huge resources of biological and medical data have become available for research. This data offers great chances for machine learning applications in health care, e.g. for precision medicine, but is also challenging to analyze. Typical challenges include a large number of possibly correlated featur…
We study the top-K ranking problem where the goal is to recover the set of top-K ranked items out of a large collection of items based on partially revealed preferences. We consider an adversarial crowdsourced setting where there are two population sets, and pairwise comparison samples drawn from one of the populat…