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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for causal pathways

SENA-discrepancy-VAE interprets latent causal factors in biological pathways.

problem Interpreting latent causal factors in biological pathways.
method SENA-discrepancy-VAE, a model based on discrepancy-VAE, that produces interpretable latent causal factors.
result Sena-discrepancy-VAE achieves comparable predictive performance with non-interpretable counterparts while providing biologically meaningful causal factors.

The goal of personalized decision making is to map a unit's characteristics to an action tailored to maximize the expected outcome for that unit. Obtaining high-quality mappings of this type is the goal of the dynamic regime literature. In healthcare settings, optimizing policies with respect to a particular causal pat…

2018-09-27abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method uses LLMs to discover causal pathways that affect fairness in machine learning.

problem Discovering fairness-relevant causal pathways in the presence of noise and confounding.
method Hybrid LLM-guided causal discovery framework combining active learning and dynamic scoring.
result LLM-guided methods, including the proposed active, dynamically scored variant, outperform baselines in recovering fairness-relevant structure under noisy conditions.

Paper relaxes faithfulness assumption for causal discovery using interventions.

problem Violation of faithfulness assumption in natural systems leads to incorrect causal structure identification.
method Use intervention-immediacy faithfulness assumption to identify causal structures with hard interventions.
result Interventions contain information about causal structure that can identify causal structures when faithfulness is violated.

This work analyzes fairness-accuracy trade-offs using causal methods.

problem Discriminatory behavior in machine learning systems based on sensitive characteristics.
method Introduces path-specific excess loss (PSEL) and causal fairness/utility ratio to quantify trade-offs.
result Shows how enforcing fairness constraints can reduce discrimination while increasing loss.

Proposes new method to handle hidden confounders in causal mediation analysis.

problem Break down total effect of treatment on outcome through different causal pathways.
method Combines proxy strategies and deep learning to uncover latent variables and estimate causal effects.
result Validated effectiveness of the proposed method for causal fairness analysis.

MediEncoder learns nonlinear representations for causal mediation analysis.

problem High-dimensional noisy covariates and mediators in biomedical studies.
method Coupled encoder-decoder architecture with cross-factor network.
result Improves estimation accuracy in high-dimensional causal mediation analysis.

We consider the problem of learning fair decision systems in complex scenarios in which a sensitive attribute might affect the decision along both fair and unfair pathways. We introduce a causal approach to disregard effects along unfair pathways that simplifies and generalizes previous literature. Our method corrects …

2018-02-22abs ↗pdf ↗

ACI uses Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes from effects in complex systems.

problem Capturing instantaneous, time-evolving causal relationships in complex, high-dimensional systems.
method Assimilative causal inference (ACI) leverages Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes backward from observed effects.
result ACI provides online tracking of causal roles that may reverse intermittently and reveals how far effects propagate.

Generative Intervention Models predict perturbation effects without knowing the underlying mechanisms.

problem Predicting perturbation effects when the mechanisms are unknown.
method Generative Intervention Models (GIM) that map perturbation features to distributions over atomic interventions in a causal model.
result GIMs achieve robust out-of-distribution predictions and infer underlying perturbation mechanisms.

DeepMed uses DNNs to estimate causal mediation effects without sparsity constraints.

problem Estimating Natural Direct and Indirect Effects in mediation analysis.
method DeepMed employs deep neural networks to cross-fit infinite-dimensional nuisance functions.
result DeepMed achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and adapts to low-dimensional nuisance structures.

CSHT predicts financial returns from news using a novel transformer model on a sphere.

problem Financial forecasting from news and sentiment.
method Granger-causal hypergraph structure, Riemannian geometry, causally masked Transformer attention.
result CSHT outperforms baselines in return prediction, regime classification, and asset ranking.

This work presents entropic constraints from DAGs with hidden variables.

problem Characterizing causal relations in systems with hidden variables.
method Entropic inequality constraints derived from ee-separation relations.
result These constraints can learn about true causal models from observed data.

The paper identifies the best treatment to maximize NDPO, a key outcome in causal mediation analysis.

problem Identifying the treatment that maximizes the expected natural direct potential outcome (NDPO) in causal mediation analysis.
method Developed a fixed-confidence best-arm identification (BAI) algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop (TaS) framework, using a cutting-set method to solve a semi-infinite optimization problem.
result The proposed algorithm achieves sample-efficient identification with a high-probability correctness guarantee and asymptotic optimality.

BayesMR estimates causal effects and directionality from genetic data.

problem Challenges in finding good genetic instruments and estimating causal effects.
method Bayesian Mendelian randomization approach that accounts for pleiotropy and reverse causation.
result BayesMR provides a posterior distribution over causal effects and uncertainty.

DEDACT breaks down feature importance into direct and associative components.

problem Lack of clear distinction between direct and associative feature importance.
method DEDACT framework to decompose direct and associative importance measures.
result Provides insight into sources of prediction-relevant information and feature pathways.

Paper uses machine learning to identify key pathways for c-di-GMP in bacterial genomes.

problem Understanding pathways essential for c-di-GMP in bacterial cellulose production.
method Applied Lasso and Random Forests for feature selection and modeling gene count data.
result Bacterial chemotaxis is identified as the most essential pathway for c-di-GMP encoding domains.

New method detects bias in AI models that generate data.

problem Detecting bias in AI models that generate data.
method Formalized causal fairness in generative AI, derived new decomposition results, established identification conditions, and introduced efficient estimators.
result Demonstrated the value of new methodology in analyzing bias in large language models.

Bayesian method estimates causal effects with proxy networks.

problem Estimating causal effects with only proxy measurements of a latent interference network.
method Structural causal model with Block Gibbs sampler and Locally Informed Proposals.
result Accurately estimates causal effects even with noisy proxy networks.

PKB framework boosts genomic data analysis by integrating pathway knowledge.

problem Boosting discovery power and connecting new findings with biological mechanisms in genomic data.
method Pathway-based Kernel Boosting (PKB) framework integrating clinical and pathway information for prediction of various outcomes.
result PKB substantially outperforms other methods in predicting drug response and cancer survival.

In this paper, we consider the problem of fair statistical inference involving outcome variables. Examples include classification and regression problems, and estimating treatment effects in randomized trials or observational data. The issue of fairness arises in such problems where some covariates or treatments are "s…

2017-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper develops fair machine learning models using causal path-specific effects.

problem Fairness in machine learning models under causal constraints.
method Lagrange multiplier approach for infinite-dimensional functional estimation, closed-form solutions for constrained optimization.
result Theoretical and flexible semiparametric estimation strategies for fair predictions.

We categorise coherent band (aka nullification) pathways between knots and 2-component links. Additionally, we characterise the minimal coherent band pathways (with intermediates) between any two knots or 2-component links with small crossing number. We demonstrate these band surgeries for knots and links with small cr…

2014-08-08abs ↗pdf ↗

CRNN discovers chemical reaction pathways from data.

problem Challenging to infer reaction pathways for complex systems.
method Neural network approach that satisfies fundamental physics laws.
result CRNN autonomously discovers reaction pathways from species concentration data.

Tree-based regularization improves latent variable inference from related datasets.

problem Inferring latent variables from multiple related datasets in causal systems.
method Tree-Based Regularization (TBR) for sparse changes across environments.
result TBR identifies true latent variables up to simple transformations under sparse changes.

Motivated by an important insight from neural science, we propose a new framework for understanding the success of the recently proposed "maxout" networks. The framework is based on encoding information on sparse pathways and recognizing the correct pathway at inference time. Elaborating further on this insight, we pro…

2013-11-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Study relaxes identification assumptions for natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.

problem Identifying causal direct effects under unmeasured confounding.
method Developed relaxed conditions for identifying natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.
result Identified natural direct effect under unmeasured confounding conditions.

New methods estimate causal effects through mediators, handling confounding without strict assumptions.

problem Estimating causal effects through mediators while accounting for unmeasured confounding.
method Developed four nonparametric identification strategies using proximal confounding bridge functions, efficient influence function, and quadruply robust estimator. Proposed proximal debiased machine learning approach for high-dimensional nuisance parameters.
result Achieved n\sqrt{n}-consistency and asymptotic normality for path-specific effect estimation.

The paper proposes a method to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects using pretraining strategies.

problem Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in the presence of many covariates.
method The approach leverages prognostic factors that also predict treatment effect heterogeneity, using the R-learner framework.
result The proposed method improves estimation accuracy and power for detecting treatment effect heterogeneity.