When will a server fail catastrophically in an industrial datacenter? Is it possible to forecast these failures so preventive actions can be taken to increase the reliability of a datacenter? To answer these questions, we have studied what are probably the largest, publicly available datacenter traces, containing more …
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,657 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “catastrophic failure”
This paper addresses the problem of evaluating learning systems in safety critical domains such as autonomous driving, where failures can have catastrophic consequences. We focus on two problems: searching for scenarios when learned agents fail and assessing their probability of failure. The standard method for agent e…
K-means fails catastrophically in high dimensions, Hartigan's avoids it.
problem K-means algorithm's failure in high-dimensional data.
method Proof of k-means failure and Hartigan's algorithm success.
result Hartigan's algorithm avoids the catastrophic failure of k-means in high dimensions.
The paper tackles safe exploration in RL by a conservative safety critic.
problem Safe exploration in reinforcement learning (RL) when partially trained policies are deployed.
method Learning a conservative safety estimate through a critic, provably bounding catastrophic failures.
result The approach provably converges to competitive task performance with significantly lower catastrophic failure rates.
A new method combines MCMC results to avoid failures in parallel computing.
problem Parallel MCMC's sensitivity to subposterior sampling issues leads to failures.
method Parallel Active Inference (PAI) uses Gaussian Process (GP) surrogate modeling and active learning.
result PAI successfully combines MCMC results where previous methods fail.
The paper calculates the likelihood of a financial market failure involving multiple major banks.
problem Estimating the probability of a market failure involving multiple globally important banks.
method Multivariate Cox process across G-SIBs, deriving various theorems on market failure probabilities.
result The probability of a market failure increases with the number of G-SIBs and is inevitable if there are too many.
Deep neural networks are known to suffer the catastrophic forgetting problem, where they tend to forget the knowledge from the previous tasks when sequentially learning new tasks. Such failure hinders the application of deep learning based vision system in continual learning settings. In this work, we present a simple …
New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.
problem Current validation methods fail to quantify extreme errors in high-stakes domains.
method Uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate worst-case failures.
result Establishes EVT as a fundamental tool for assessing model reliability.
Certified training improves robustness against adversarial attacks.
problem Certified training's gap with empirical robustness limits its practical utility.
method Combining adversarial attacks with network over-approximations.
result Certified training can prevent catastrophic overfitting and bridge the gap to multi-step baselines.
New method prevents adversarial training failure in deep networks.
problem Adversarial training failure in deep networks.
method GradAlign method to prevent catastrophic overfitting.
result GradAlign prevents adversarial training failure in deep networks.
Data-Driven Failure Prediction in Brittle Materials: A Phase-Field Based Machine Learning Frameworkcs.CE
Machine learning predicts failure in brittle materials with high accuracy.
problem Predicting failure in brittle materials under repetitive loads.
method Phase-field model combined with supervised machine learning.
result Framework predicts failure with acceptable accuracy even in noisy data.
CARL safely adapts RL agents for safety-critical tasks.
problem Safety hazards in RL for safety-critical tasks.
method CARL combines model-based RL and cautious adaptation.
result CARL achieves higher rewards with fewer failures in safety-critical tasks.
Conformal prediction fails under severe feature turnover in COVID-19 supply chain tasks.
problem Dealing with distribution shift in conformal prediction models.
method Using COVID-19 as a natural experiment across 8 supply chain tasks, analyzing SHAP explanations.
result Coverage drops vary widely (0% to 86.7%) and correlate with single-feature dependence.
Strength of weak layers in cascading failures on multiplex networks: case of the international trade networkphysics.soc-ph
Many real-world complex systems across natural, social, and economical domains consist of manifold layers to form multiplex networks. The multiple network layers give rise to nonlinear effect for the emergent dynamics of systems. Especially, weak layers that can potentially play significant role in amplifying the vulne…
Paper proposes methods to reduce financial contagion by targeted cash injections.
problem Financial contagion through interconnected networks.
method Dynamic model of payments with external control term for corrective cash injections.
result Targeted cash injections can significantly reduce default propagation.
Study uses satellite data to predict tailings dam collapse risk.
problem Detecting early signs of tailings dam instability.
method Spectral analysis of satellite InSAR displacement time series data.
result Algorithm detects risk milestones up to 5 months before dam collapse.
Phase Transitions in Operational Riskphysics.soc-ph
In this paper we explore the functional correlation approach to operational risk. We consider networks with heterogeneous a-priori conditional and unconditional failure probability. In the limit of sparse connectivity, self-consistent expressions for the dynamical evolution of order parameters are obtained. Under equil…
Artificial Neural Networks and Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Models for Prediction of Remaining Useful Lifecs.LG
The U.S. water distribution system contains thousands of miles of pipes constructed from different materials, and of various sizes, and age. These pipes suffer from physical, environmental, structural and operational stresses, causing deterioration which eventually leads to their failure. Pipe deterioration results in …
High-frequency trading models fail due to overfitting and survivor bias.
problem Failure of hybrid DRL-EC trading systems in high-frequency environments.
method Deployed a population of 500 agents in a high-frequency cryptocurrency environment, analyzing failure modes through multi-disciplinary lens.
result Increasing model complexity without information asymmetry exacerbates systemic fragility.
The goal of this investigation was to overcome limitations of a persistency analysis, introduced by Benoit Mandelbrot for fractal Brownian processes: nondifferentiability, Brownian nature of process and a linear memory measure. We have extended a sense of a Hurst factor by consideration of a phase diffusion power law. …
A neural network approach to learn Cusp Catastrophe dynamics.
problem Complex behavior and non-convex parameter space in Cusp Catastrophe models.
method Training a deep neural network to learn dynamics without solving generating parameters.
result Demonstrated a neural network approach for the first time in Cusp Catastrophe models.
This paper describes some of the possibilities of artificial neural networks that open up after solving the problem of catastrophic forgetting. A simple model and reinforcement learning applications of existing methods are also proposed.
The paper values reinsurance contracts for dynamic catastrophe claims without arbitrage.
problem Valuation of reinsurance contracts for dynamic catastrophe claims without arbitrage.
method Compound dynamic contagion process, Esscher transform, Monte Carlo simulation.
result Arbitrage-free premiums for catastrophe stop-loss reinsurance contracts.
Machine and reinforcement learning (RL) are increasingly being applied to plan and control the behavior of autonomous systems interacting with the physical world. Examples include self-driving vehicles, distributed sensor networks, and agile robots. However, when machine learning is to be applied in these new settings,…
Score matching fails to train VAEs robustly, revealing autoencoding loss insights.
problem Catastrophic failure of variational score matching on VAE models.
method Analysis of existing variational score matching objectives and their equivalence to autoencoding losses.
result Score matching methods fail to produce robust VAE models, predicting poor performance.
Adam optimizer leads to more forgetting in neural networks.
problem Understanding and quantifying catastrophic forgetting in neural networks.
method Comparative analysis of various optimization algorithms and metrics in different learning scenarios.
result Adam optimizer causes more forgetting compared to classical algorithms like SGD.
Bayesian online meta-learning framework tackles catastrophic forgetting in few-shot classification.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in few-shot classification problems.
method Bayesian online learning, meta-learning, Laplace approximation, variational inference.
result Framework effectively achieves goal of overcoming catastrophic forgetting in few-shot classification.
Unified Bayesian framework for CAT bond pricing.
problem Uncertainty in catastrophe occurrences and interest rates in CAT bond markets.
method Bayesian framework based on uncertainty quantification of catastrophes and interest rates.
result Unified asset pricing approach with informative expected risk premia.
Optimizes diversification in catastrophe risk pooling using asymptotic analysis.
problem Maximizing diversification benefit from catastrophic events in insurance pools.
method Asymptotic analysis to solve high-dimensional optimization problem.
result Derives an asymptotically optimal pool that approximates practical optimal pool.
Graph neural networks improve equipment health monitoring from multisensor data.
problem Leveraging complex machinery structure for condition-based maintenance.
method Captured machinery structure as a graph and used graph neural networks (GNNs) to model time-series data.
result GNN-based RUL estimation model outperforms RNNs and CNNs on turbofan engine benchmark.
New algorithms optimize a soft-robust criterion in reinforcement learning, reducing conservatism.
problem Computing robust policies for high-stakes decisions with limited data.
method Soft-robust criterion using risk measures, two algorithms for optimization.
result Our algorithms produce less conservative solutions than existing methods.
Paper tackles catastrophic overfitting in single-step adversarial training.
problem Catastrophic overfitting leads to sudden drop in robust accuracy.
method Proposes a method to prevent overfitting by using all adversarial examples.
result Demonstrates prevention of catastrophic overfitting and improves robustness.
New methods improve insurance data quality for catastrophic events.
problem Improving precision and size of insurance data for catastrophic events.
method Bootstrap, bootknife, and GAN algorithms.
result Compared MSE and MAE of simulated outputs, direct algorithm for fuzzy expert opinion.
A random forest based approach for predicting spreads in the primary catastrophe bond marketq-fin.PR
We introduce a random forest approach to enable spreads' prediction in the primary catastrophe bond market. We investigate whether all information provided to investors in the offering circular prior to a new issuance is equally important in predicting its spread. The whole population of non-life catastrophe bonds issu…
This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily realized volatility from the returns in the first step and use stochastic cusp cata…
Within the context of the banking-related literature on contingent convertible bonds, we comprehensively formalise the design and features of a relatively new type of insurance-linked security, called a contingent convertible catastrophe bond (CocoCat). We begin with a discussion of its design and compare its relative …
Study analyzes catastrophic forgetting in continual learning using teacher-student networks.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in continuously learning systems.
method Teacher-student learning framework, similarity of input distributions and target functions.
result Network can avoid catastrophic forgetting with small input distribution similarity and large target function similarity.
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) suffer from catastrophic forgetting when trained on a sequence of tasks. While this phenomenon was studied in the past, there is only very limited recent research on this phenomenon. We propose a method for determining the contribution of individual parameters in an ANN to catastrophic…
Interpreting the behaviors of Deep Neural Networks (usually considered as a black box) is critical especially when they are now being widely adopted over diverse aspects of human life. Taking the advancements from Explainable Artificial Intelligent, this paper proposes a novel technique called Auto DeepVis to dissect c…
The paper introduces CoCoCat bonds for multi-region natural catastrophes, accounting for complex dependencies.
problem Valuation of multi-region contingent convertible bonds under complex dependencies.
method Developed a model accounting for inter-regional dependencies using change-of-measure techniques.
result Significant impact of inter-regional dependencies on CoCoCat bond pricing.
A new method helps deep learning systems adapt to changing conditions.
problem Deep learning systems struggle with environmental drifts and long healing cycles.
method Intentional forgetting integrated into continual learning to overcome issues.
result Dr. DRL reduces healing time and fine-tuning episodes by 18.74% and 17.72% respectively.
Optimal Dividend and reinsurance strategy of a Property Insurance Company under Catastrophe Riskq-fin.RM
We consider an optimal control problem of a property insurance company with proportional reinsurance strategy. The insurance business brings in catastrophe risk, such as earthquake and flood. The catastrophe risk could be partly reduced by reinsurance. The management of the company controls the reinsurance rate and div…
We study learning control in an online reset-free lifelong learning scenario, where mistakes can compound catastrophically into the future and the underlying dynamics of the environment may change. Traditional model-free policy learning methods have achieved successes in difficult tasks due to their broad flexibility, …
We propose a model for an insurance loss index and the claims process of a single insurance company holding a fraction of the total number of contracts that captures both ordinary losses and losses due to catastrophes. In this model we price a catastrophe derivative by the method of utility indifference pricing. The as…
Paper tackles catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning.
method Regularizes training with sketches of Jacobian matrix of past data.
result Proves overcoming catastrophic forgetting for linear and wide neural networks.
The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets. Overall, in this work we developed various metrics associated with catastrophic bifurca…
Paper models cloud outages for cyber insurance stress-testing.
problem Cyber insurance portfolios' vulnerability to simultaneous cloud outages.
method Modeling and calibrating cloud-outage scenarios, measuring diversification.
result Cloud-outage diversification can protect against accumulation risk.
This work tackles catastrophic forgetting in neural networks by mimicking brain's metaplasticity.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in neural networks, where new tasks erase previously learned ones.
method Interpreting binarized neural networks as metaplastic systems, adjusting their training technique.
result Training technique reduces catastrophic forgetting without needing previously presented data.