A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Bayesian optimization tackles expensive cascade processes.
Paper tackles counterfactual sentence detection and evaluation.
Cascading flows improve variational inference in structured programs.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are vulnerable to malicious inputs crafted by an adversary to produce erroneous outputs. Works on securing neural networks against adversarial examples achieve high empirical robustness on simple datasets such as MNIST. However, these techniques are inadequate when empirically tested on comp…
Modeling supply chain disruptions from climate hazards with adaptive firms.
Adaptive cascade submodular maximization tackles sequential selection under uncertainty.
Algorithm estimates clock in network cascades to improve performance.
Method certifies edge predictions with cloud-level reliability.
A network of independently trained Gaussian processes (StackedGP) is introduced to obtain predictions of quantities of interest with quantified uncertainties. The main applications of the StackedGP framework are to integrate different datasets through model composition, enhance predictions of quantities of interest thr…
Confidence-based deferral works well in many scenarios but fails in specific cases.
On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and c…
A new neural network initialization method is proposed for faster and more accurate training.
This paper optimizes power grid protection settings to maximize network degradation due to cascading attacks.
Model infers diffusion networks from heterogeneous cascade data.
Machine Learning models are vulnerable to adversarial attacks that rely on perturbing the input data. This work proposes a novel strategy using Autoencoder Deep Neural Networks to defend a machine learning model against two gradient-based attacks: The Fast Gradient Sign attack and Fast Gradient attack. First we use an …
New insights into cascade feedback linearization of control systems.
Diffusion reach probability between two nodes on a network is defined as the probability of a cascade originating from one node reaching to another node. An infinite number of cascades would enable calculation of true diffusion reach probabilities between any two nodes. However, there exists only a finite number of cas…
Predicts trainability of deep neural networks using reconstruction entropy.
Developing effective and efficient recommendation methods is very challenging for modern e-commerce platforms. Generally speaking, two essential modules named "Click-Through Rate Prediction" (\textit{CTR}) and "Conversion Rate Prediction" (\textit{CVR}) are included, where \textit{CVR} module is a crucial factor that a…
Modeling cascading behavior in complex systems using CTBNs.
Motivated by the pressing need for efficient optimization in online recommender systems, we revisit the cascading bandit model proposed by Kveton et al. (2015). While Thompson sampling (TS) algorithms have been shown to be empirically superior to Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithms for cascading bandits, theoretica…
Humans are not only adept in recognizing what class an input instance belongs to (i.e., classification task), but perhaps more remarkably, they can imagine (i.e., generate) plausible instances of a desired class with ease, when prompted. Inspired by this, we propose a framework which allows transforming Cascade-Correla…
How big is the risk that a few initial failures of nodes in a network amplify to large cascades that span a substantial share of all nodes? Predicting the final cascade size is critical to ensure the functioning of a system as a whole. Yet, this task is hampered by uncertain or changing parameters and missing informati…
Study on information cascade fragility under mismatched revealing probabilities.
A search engine usually outputs a list of web pages. The user examines this list, from the first web page to the last, and chooses the first attractive page. This model of user behavior is known as the cascade model. In this paper, we propose cascading bandits, a learning variant of the cascade model where the obje…
Structured prediction tasks pose a fundamental trade-off between the need for model complexity to increase predictive power and the limited computational resources for inference in the exponentially-sized output spaces such models require. We formulate and develop the Structured Prediction Cascade architecture: a seque…
Sandpile Economics explains how economies can be prone to large crises from small shocks.
Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Faceb…
The paper addresses the -tangle enumeration problem. We introduce a notion of cascade diagram for -tangle projections. An effective enumeration algorithm for projections is proposed based on cascade representation. Tangles projections with up to 12 crossings are tabulated. We provide also pictures of alternating …
Modeling social network activity through user and topic interaction.
Deep Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are useful models for graph classification and graph-based regression tasks. In these tasks, graph pooling is a critical ingredient by which GNNs adapt to input graphs of varying size and structure. We propose a new graph pooling operation based on compressive Haar transforms -- HaarPo…
We study the first-order scattering transform as a candidate for reducing the signal processed by a convolutional neural network (CNN). We show theoretical and empirical evidence that in the case of natural images and sufficiently small translation invariance, this transform preserves most of the signal information nee…
Information spreads across social and technological networks, but often the network structures are hidden from us and we only observe the traces left by the diffusion processes, called cascades. Can we recover the hidden network structures from these observed cascades? What kind of cascades and how many cascades do we …
We consider the problem of finding the graph on which an epidemic cascade spreads, given only the times when each node gets infected. While this is a problem of importance in several contexts -- offline and online social networks, e-commerce, epidemiology, vulnerabilities in infrastructure networks -- there has been ve…
DICE estimates data influence cascade in decentralized learning networks.
In this paper, we present a new approach to learning cascaded classifiers for use in computing environments that involve networks of heterogeneous and resource-constrained, low-power embedded compute and sensing nodes. We present a generalization of the classical linear detection cascade to the case of tree-structured …
Paper presents a probabilistic model to improve LLM cascade performance.
Efficiently processes dynamic inputs in AI writing assistants with incremental computation.
Non-stationarity appears in many online applications such as web search and advertising. In this paper, we study the online learning to rank problem in a non-stationary environment where user preferences change abruptly at an unknown moment in time. We consider the problem of identifying the K most attractive items and…
We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas our framework explicitly allows for (dis)assortative edge probabilities (e.g., …
Model financial default cascades on sparse graphs via hitting times.
In this paper, we present a general, multistage framework for graphical model approximation using a cascade of models such as trees. In particular, we look at the problem of covariance matrix approximation for Gaussian distributions as linear transformations of tree models. This is a new way to decompose the covariance…
I show the equivalence between a model of financial contagion and the threshold model of global cascades proposed by Watts (2002). The model financial network comprises banks that hold risky external assets as well as interbank assets. It is shown that a simple threshold model can replicate the size and the frequency o…
Paper develops a neural model to assess cascading extreme events.
A new algorithm balances exploration and exploitation in online decision-making.
We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade. The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional particle filtering algorithms. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to improved particle throughput and memory efficiency. It is an anytime algorithm i…
In the Network Inference problem, one seeks to recover the edges of an unknown graph from the observations of cascades propagating over this graph. In this paper, we approach this problem from the sparse recovery perspective. We introduce a general model of cascades, including the voter model and the independent cascad…
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between banks, the possibility of disassortative edge probabilities (an above average tende…