Study three types of uncertainty quantification for binary classification without distributional assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification for binary classification in a distribution-free setting.
method Established theorems connecting calibration, confidence intervals, and prediction sets for score-based classifiers.
result Distribution-free calibration is only possible using scoring functions that partition feature space into countably many sets.
Friedman's method performs well for estimating class distributions.
problem Estimating prior class probabilities without label observations.
method Friedman's method and DeBias method for designing linear equation systems.
result Friedman's method performs well for binary and multi-class quantification.
Paper proposes Bayesian TMLE methods for causal effect uncertainty quantification.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in causal effect estimation.
method Three Bayesian TMLE approaches for binary and continuous outcomes.
result BN-TMLE outperforms classical implementations in small data regimes.
Characterizes uncertainty in low-rank matrix completion with noisy data.
problem Uncertainty quantification in low-rank matrix completion with heterogeneous sub-exponential noise.
method Characterizes the distribution of estimated matrix entries under low-rank estimators with heterogeneous sub-exponential noise.
result Explicit formulas for the distribution of estimated matrix entries under Poisson and Binary noise.
\emph{Sentiment Quantification} (i.e., the task of estimating the relative frequency of sentiment-related classes -- such as \textsf{Positive} and \textsf{Negative} -- in a set of unlabelled documents) is an important topic in sentiment analysis, as the study of sentiment-related quantities and trends across a populati…
This paper introduces a new method for uncertainty quantification in prediction models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in high-stakes applications like medicine and finance.
method Confidence sets for outcome excursions, focusing on identifying subsets of features where outcomes exceed a threshold.
result Theoretical guarantees for the probability that confidence sets contain the true feature subset, both asymptotically and for finite sample sizes.
A new method for measuring prediction uncertainty in classifiers.
problem Measuring uncertainty of predictions from machine learning methods.
method Density Based Calibration (DBCal) technique.
result Expected calibration error of less than 0.2% on binary classifiers and less than 3% on semantic segmentation networks.
New method predicts binary matrix entries using empirical Bayes and low-rank structure.
problem Predicting unobserved entries in binary matrices.
method Empirical Bayes method motivated by Efron--Morris estimator, exploiting low-rank structure.
result Superior performance in predictive accuracy, calibration, and efficiency compared to existing methods.
A Bayesian Boolean Matrix Factorization for cancer genomics
problem Identifying coordinated feature changes in cancer
method Bayesian Boolean Matrix Factorization
result Captures widespread, near-simultaneous chromosome-number changes
Classification is the task of predicting the class labels of objects based on the observation of their features. In contrast, quantification has been defined as the task of determining the prevalences of the different sorts of class labels in a target dataset. The simplest approach to quantification is Classify & Count…
Bayesian approach quantifies uncertainty in LLM evaluations.
problem Statistical uncertainty in evaluating LLM behavior.
method Bayesian evaluation of LLM behavior using probabilistic text generation strategies.
result Bayesian approach provides useful uncertainty quantification about LLM behavior.
ECI improves time series prediction uncertainty quantification by smoothing miscoverage error.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for time series prediction due to temporal dependence and distribution shift.
method Error-quantified Conformal Inference (ECI) by smoothing quantile loss function and introducing adaptive feedback scale.
result ECI achieves valid miscoverage control and tighter prediction sets than existing methods.
The volume of a credal set correlates with epistemic uncertainty in binary classification but not in multi-class.
problem Representing and quantifying epistemic uncertainty in machine learning.
method Examined the geometric representation of credal sets as d-dimensional polytopes and their volume as a measure of uncertainty. result The volume of a credal set is a meaningful measure of epistemic uncertainty in binary classification but not in multi-class.
Continuous Sweep improves binary quantifier performance.
problem Estimating class prevalence in datasets.
method Parametric binary quantifier inspired by Median Sweep, using parametric class distributions and mean of Adjusted Count estimates.
result Continuous Sweep outperforms other quantifiers in simulations and empirical data analysis.
Reduces quantifier variance with accuracy optimization of base classifier.
problem Minimizing quantifier variance under prior probability shift.
method Optimizes the Brier score of a base classifier for training data.
result Optimizing Brier score on training data reduces quantifier variance on test data.
Survey on assessing and improving classifier calibration for better decision making.
problem Ensuring classifiers correctly quantify prediction uncertainty.
method Overview of principles, methods, and evaluation metrics for calibration.
result New methods and extensions from binary to multiclass settings.
Improves ROC/AUC for multi-class classification.
problem Lack of sensible plots, sensitivity to imbalanced data, inability to specify mis-classification cost, and lack of evaluation uncertainty quantification.
method Factorizes multi-class ROC into a one-dimensional vector representation for visualization and summary.
result Provides a binary AUC-equivalent summary and mis-classification weights specification.
Paper proposes a new method to quantify uncertainty in machine learning models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in multiclass classification models.
method Distance-based approach using Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs).
result Effective uncertainty measures for multiclass classification.
Estimates density ratio for two-sample comparison using tree models.
problem Comparing two distributions given i.i.d. observations.
method Additive tree models with balancing loss for density ratio estimation.
result Bayesian inference provides uncertainty quantification for density ratio.
A new DP approach for Conformal Prediction using quantile search.
problem Privacy leakage in uncertainty quantification methods like Conformal Prediction.
method Private Conformity via Quantile Search (P-COQS) using randomized binary search.
result The approach targets the desired (1−α)-level of coverage with slight under-covering. In the economic literature, geographic distances are considered fundamental factors to be included in any theoretical model whose aim is the quantification of the trade between countries. Quantitatively, distances enter into the so-called gravity models that successfully predict the weight of non-zero trade flows. Howe…
Motivation: Ab initio protein docking represents a major challenge for optimizing a noisy and costly "black box"-like function in a high-dimensional space. Despite progress in this field, there is no docking method available for rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) of its solution quality (e.g. interface RMSD or iR…
Study evaluates uncertainty estimation methods in binary classification models.
problem Difficulty in quantifying uncertainty in complex models like deep learning.
method Approximate Bayesian inference with synthetic datasets and empirical tests.
result Deep learning-based algorithms do not consistently reflect lack of evidence for out-of-distribution data.
Proposes PUUPL for PUL in imbalanced datasets, boosting minority class signals.
problem Imbalanced datasets and model calibration in PUL.
method Uncertainty-aware pseudo-labeling procedure (PUUPL).
result Substantial performance gains in highly imbalanced settings.
MC-GMENN improves neural networks for clustered data using Monte Carlo methods.
problem Improving neural network performance on clustered data with correlations.
method MC-GMENN employs Monte Carlo methods to train generalized mixed effects neural networks.
result MC-GMENN outperforms existing models in generalization and quantifying inter-cluster variance.
Classification of high dimensional data finds wide-ranging applications. In many of these applications equipping the resulting classification with a measure of uncertainty may be as important as the classification itself. In this paper we introduce, develop algorithms for, and investigate the properties of, a variety o…
New methods protect privacy while providing accurate prediction sets.
problem Privacy-preserving conformal prediction for untrusted aggregators.
method Two LDP approaches: k-ary randomized response and binary search response.
result Finite-sample coverage guarantees and robust coverage under randomization.
Develops methods to adjust prediction set coverage based on post-selection analysis.
problem Adjusting prediction set coverage after initial analysis to better fit specific needs.
method Post-selection conformal inference to adjust miscoverage levels.
result Allows for trade-off between coverage and prediction set quality.
HistNetQ improves quantification tasks by optimizing loss functions and eliminating label requirements.
problem Quantification of class prevalence in bags of examples.
method Permutation-invariant Histograms and deep neural networks.
result HistNetQ outperforms other quantification methods and optimizes custom loss functions.
Quantification is a supervised learning task that consists in predicting, given a set of classes C and a set D of unlabelled items, the prevalence (or relative frequency) p(c|D) of each class c in C. Quantification can in principle be solved by classifying all the unlabelled items and counting how many of them have bee…
Detects corruption in agentic models during execution.
problem Inconsistent context, retrieval errors, or adversarial inputs corrupt intermediate steps of reasoning chains.
method Analyzes token graphs induced by attention and computes spectral statistics to emit accept/reject signals.
result A single threshold on the high frequency energy ratio optimally detects context inconsistency in agentic models.
Fortuna simplifies uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Improving uncertainty estimates in deep learning models.
method Supports various calibration techniques including conformal prediction and scalable Bayesian inference.
result Simplifies benchmarking and builds robust AI systems.
A Bayesian approach to multilabel classification using tree-based models.
problem Challenges in multilabel classification due to complex label relationships and correlations.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) framework for modeling multilabel classification.
result Improved predictive performance compared to other models, including an oracle model.
Bayesian meta learning improves uncertainty quantification in regression.
problem Trusting uncertainty quantification in Bayesian regression.
method Trust-Bayes framework for Bayesian meta learning, optimizing for trustworthy uncertainty quantification.
result Lower bounds and sample complexity for trustworthy uncertainty quantification are characterized.
Bayesian uncertainty quantification is flawed, according to new research.
problem Flawed interpretation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification.
method Discussion of Bayesian updating and optimization-based perspective, proposing measures of quality.
result Bayesian uncertainty quantification is not coherent with optimization-based perspective.
A new KDE-based method improves multiclass quantification.
problem Quantifying class prevalence in multiclass settings.
method Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) for multivariate densities.
result KDEy method yields superior quantification performance.
Geometry-aware KDE model improves multiclass quantification.
problem Accurately estimating class prevalence for label shift adaptation.
method Log-ratio representations and Aitchison geometry for compositional data, shrinkage regularization.
result Competitive with state-of-the-art quantifiers, often improving over standard KDE-based baselines.
New GP-based method improves uncertainty quantification for causal functions.
problem Challenges in quantifying uncertainty for causal effects, especially for entire functions.
method GP-based approach using inner-product of observational functions in RKHS, with tractable posterior moments and calibration.
result Improves uncertainty quantification while maintaining causal effect estimation performance.
Variational inference is a general approach for approximating complex density functions, such as those arising in latent variable models, popular in machine learning. It has been applied to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator and to carry out Bayesian inference, however, quantification of uncertainty with vari…
Unified taxonomy for ML uncertainty in physics, validated.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for physics.
method Unified taxonomy, principled validation tools.
result Illustrated validation tools with examples.
We investigate artificial neural networks as a parametrization tool for stochastic inputs in numerical simulations. We address parametrization from the point of view of emulating the data generating process, instead of explicitly constructing a parametric form to preserve predefined statistics of the data. This is done…
Proposes PQ, a more precise Bayesian quantifier for prevalence estimation.
problem Uncertainty quantification in prevalence estimation.
method Bayesian quantification methods, focusing on precision and coverage.
result PQ provides more precise and well-calibrated uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian neural network models improve uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression models with heteroscedastic noise.
method Proposes Bayesian Last Layer neural network models and EM algorithms for parameter learning.
result Capable of disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
Novel framework for uncertainty quantification in metric spaces.
problem Uncertainty quantification in regression models with metric responses.
method Developed algorithms for large datasets, agnostic to predictive models, with asymptotic and non-asymptotic guarantees.
result Asymptotic and non-asymptotic guarantees for special cases, demonstrated in clinical applications.
Quantification is the task of estimating, given a set σ of unlabelled items and a set of classes C={c1,…,c∣C∣}, the prevalence (or `relative frequency') in σ of each class ci∈C. While quantification may in principle be solved by classifying each item in σ and…
Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.
problem Uncertainty quantification for prediction tasks.
method Decomposes proper scoring rules into divergence and entropy components, tailoring uncertainty quantification to specific tasks.
result Flexibility in uncertainty quantification improves performance in selective prediction and active learning.
Develops a framework for inferring causal relationships in networked data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Extracting reliable inference from complex Hawkes network data with uncertainty.
method Statistical inference framework based on maximum likelihood estimation and concentration inequalities of continuous-time martingales.
result Provides a non-asymptotic confidence set for uncertainty quantification.
Modern quantitative risk management relies on an adequate modeling of the tail dependence and a possibly accurate quantification of risk measures, like Value at Risk (VaR), at high confidence levels like 1 in 100 or even 1 in 2000. Quantum computing makes such a quantification quadratically more efficient than the Mont…