Study shows most people make poor decisions when betting on a biased coin.
problem People's decision-making under uncertainty is poor, even among trained individuals.
method 61 quantitatively trained participants played a game with a biased coin.
result 30% of participants lost their entire stake, indicating poor decision-making.
We study capital process behavior in the fair-coin game and biased-coin games in the framework of the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that if Skeptic uses a Bayesian strategy with a beta prior, the capital process is lucidly expressed in terms of the past average of Reality's moves. From t…
This paper tracks coin circulation in Bitcoin to identify miners and analyze mining pool structures.
problem Identifying and understanding Bitcoin miners and their profit distribution schemes.
method Constructs fresh coin circulation networks and uses a heuristic algorithm to compare networks from different mining pools.
result Infers common profit distribution schemes of Bitcoin mining pools and observes an increasing trend in miner numbers.
New Bitcoin coin selection method improves cost savings.
problem Improving cost savings in Bitcoin coin selection.
method Coin selection with leverage, allowing user-tunable parameters.
result Natural replacement for standard knapsack method.
The Kelly Criterion is applied to prediction markets to analyze risk and return.
problem Mean beliefs in prediction markets often differ from actual prices.
method Logarithmic utility and Kullback-Leibler divergence are used to study risk and return adjustments.
result Misjudgment of bias and investment fraction affect portfolio growth rate.
Study reveals strong price correlations between major and alt-coins.
problem Unclear tight relations between cryptocoins trading prices.
method Investigated coin-price correlation trends over two years.
result Strong correlation patterns between main and alt-coins.
This paper explores using nonlinear control for robust logarithmic growth in coin flipping games.
problem Tackles the use of nonlinear control in recursive betting games with logarithmic growth.
method Formulates a robust nonlinear control problem for a simple coin flipping game, considering a probability range for the coin's bias.
result Provides a closed-form description of the optimal robust nonlinear controller, which outperforms linear controllers.
Cryptocurrency market capitalizations follow power-law distributions with distinct exponents.
problem Characterizing the dynamics of cryptocurrency coins and tokens.
method Proportional growth model applied to coin and token distributions.
result The power-law exponents for coins and tokens are distinct and converge to 1 for tokens in the future.
Optimal adaptive algorithm estimates coin mixture fractions with tight sample complexity bounds.
problem Estimating the fraction of positive coins in a mixture with unknown biases.
method Fully-adaptive algorithm with tight sample complexity bounds of Θ(ρ/ε²Δ² log(1/δ)).
result Upper and lower bounds of Θ(ρ/ε²Δ² log(1/δ)) samples for 1-δ probability of success.
Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating treatment effects under adaptive treatment assignment.
method Propose and analyze IPW and AIPW estimators, establish CLTs under design stability.
result Central limit theorems for IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability.
Argentum is a crypto coin for saving and investment in unstable countries.
problem Stable purchasing power for savings in unstable economies.
method Designing a crypto coin backed by investment instruments.
result Provides a stabilization instrument for savings in unstable economies.
New system resists meme coin copy trading bots.
problem Manipulative bots exploit copy trading in illiquid meme coins.
method Multi-agent architecture with LLM and CoT reasoning.
result System outperforms other methods in prediction and economic performance.
Study reveals widespread manipulation of meme coins, leading to significant economic losses.
problem Widespread manipulation of meme coins leading to economic losses.
method Cross-chain analysis of 34,988 tokens across Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain, Solana, and Base.
result 82.8% of high-return tokens show evidence of artificial growth strategies.
Automated market-making for CBDCs and stable coins on blockchain.
problem Creating fair exchange rates for digital assets on blockchain.
method Developed an innovative approach for generating fair exchange rates.
result Illustrated the approach's efficacy on G-10 currency exchange rates.
New coin sampling method for Bayesian inference without learning rates.
problem Scalable Bayesian inference with learning rate tuning issues.
method Coin sampling for gradient-based Bayesian inference.
result Comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms without learning rate tuning.
qBitcoin uses quantum teleportation for secure, fast transactions.
problem Preventing double-spending in quantum cash systems.
method Uses quantum teleportation and quantum chain for secure, fast transactions.
result Security and speed of qBitcoin are guaranteed by quantum information theory.
Paper proposes a new coin betting method for training deep networks without learning rates.
problem Deep learning requires tuning many hyperparameters, especially learning rates.
method Reduces deep network training to a coin betting game, eliminating learning rates.
result Empirical and theoretical evidence shows the new method outperforms existing stochastic gradient algorithms.
New method reduces distributed non-convex optimization rounds and bits.
problem Efficiently optimizing non-convex models in distributed systems.
method Introduces permutation compressors to reduce communication complexity.
result PermK compressors lead to significant communication complexity improvements.
Stablecoins are unstable, but some are more stable than others.
problem Inconsistency in stability of stablecoins and high transaction costs.
method Analysis of market shares, transaction volumes, and exchange activity.
result USD Coin, Tether, and Dai are the most stable, but overall failure rate remains high.
Cryptocurrency prices predicted using LSTM, SVM, and polynomial regression.
problem Uncertainty in crypto coin values.
method Long Short Term Memory, Support Vector Machine, Polynomial Regression models.
result Support Vector Machine with linear kernel had the smallest mean square error.
New algorithm closes empirical gap in PFSGD performance.
problem Empirical performance gap between tuned SGD and PFSGD.
method Parameter-free algorithm based on Coin-Betting ODE updates.
result New algorithm outperforms tuned baselines and matches optimal performance.
Quantum walks blend patterns into splines when averaged.
problem Understanding the asymptotic patterns of quantum random walks.
method Averaging over quantum coins using the Haar measure.
result Patterns blend into splines, showing a unified behavior.
Examines various types of cryptocurrencies and their economic properties.
problem Understanding the economic characteristics of different cryptocurrencies.
method Characterization and analysis of different classes of cryptocurrencies using balance sheet operations.
result Different types of cryptocurrencies have distinct economic properties, ranging from commodities to liabilities of central banks.
The paper proposes a method to estimate treatment effects using CAR designs with additional covariates.
problem Estimating distributional treatment effects in CAR designs with additional covariates.
method Flexible distribution regression framework that incorporates additional covariates using machine learning methods.
result The proposed estimator attains the semiparametric efficiency bound for distributional treatment effects under CAR.
COIN++ compresses multiple data types efficiently.
problem Handling diverse data modalities in neural compression.
method Implicit neural representations and modulations quantization.
result Significant compression gains with reduced encoding time.
Paper examines how crypto-assets affect corporate governance of SMEs and public companies.
problem Impact of crypto-assets on corporate governance of SMEs and public companies.
method Analyzes various use cases of DLT technology and their effects on corporate governance.
result New stakeholders (crypto-assets holders) change governance of SMEs and public companies.
Paper tightens PAC-Bayes bounds using coin-betting for better estimates.
problem Estimating mean of random elements with possibly S-dependent parameters.
method Refined PAC-Bayes proof strategy based on coin-betting framework.
result Derives tighter concentration inequalities for all sample sizes.
Predicts cryptocurrency pump probability using sequence-based neural networks.
problem Detecting pump-and-dump schemes in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed a sequence-based neural network (SNN) that encodes historical P&D events into sequences for prediction.
result SNN improves prediction accuracy by leveraging positional attention to extract useful information.
New algorithm improves online learning with expert advice and metric learning.
problem Improving online learning performance in changing environments.
method Parameter-free online learning algorithm using coin betting.
result Strongly adaptive regret bound improvement of at least sqrt(log(T)).
SFC aims to protect the Amazon with a digital currency and smart contracts.
problem Protecting the Amazon's ecosystem and ensuring resource credibility.
method Blockchain, digital contracts, smart contracts with oracles.
result Ensures credibility and security for financial resources invested in Amazon projects.
We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, a gambler or an investor can exploit arbitrary patterns of deviations of nature's moves from independent Bernoulli trial…
The paper develops inference methods for high-dimensional multi-task regression with row-sparse coefficients.
problem Inference for high-dimensional multi-task regression with unknown coefficient matrix under row-sparsity.
method Proposes chi-square and normal inference methodologies using MT Lasso with de-biasing scheme and interaction matrix.
result Derives asymptotic normal and chi-square distribution results for valid confidence intervals and ellipsoids.
A coin-flipping game paradox illustrates how conditional probability estimation can distort risk assessment.
problem Distortion of risk assessment due to incorrect conditional probability estimation.
method A coin-flipping game to illustrate the paradox of conditional probability estimation.
result Incorrect conditional probability estimation can lead to excessive risk bearing.
Blockchain tech explored for data malls, provenance, and keyless payments.
problem No specific problem stated; focuses on technology applications.
method Discussion of blockchain applications in data malls, provenance, and keyless payments.
result Exploration of blockchain's potential in non-cryptocurrency areas.
CPDOs can't achieve a Cash-In event in finite tosses, mirroring Zeno's Paradox.
problem The impossibility of achieving a Cash-In event in CPDOs, mirroring Zeno's Paradox.
method Coin-tossing model and analysis of infinite geometric series.
result CPDOs can't achieve a Cash-In event in a finite lifetime, mirroring Zeno's Paradox.
Predicting alt-coin prices with Twitter sentiment analysis.
problem Predicting price fluctuations of alt-coins using social media sentiment.
method Extracted hourly tweets, classified sentiment, created sentiment indices, trained a Gradient Boosting Tree Model.
result Model predictions correlated 0.81 with historical data, statistically significant.
New method improves sampling from score-based models by correcting bias.
problem Bias in sampling from score-based diffusion models.
method Metropolis-Hastings or Barker's accept-reject steps to correct bias, using the score function.
result Improves sample quality on synthetic and image datasets, yielding consistent gains in FID.
Optimizes cryptocurrency trading pairs for efficiency and decentralization.
problem Finding optimal trading pairs among many cryptocurrencies without direct volume data.
method Two-stage process: 1) Fill missing values using eigenvalue decomposition with regularization, 2) Optimize pairs using branch and bound with pruning.
result Optimal trading pairs lead to more decentralized markets and better liquidity.
We derive some results on contrarian and one-sided strategies by Skeptic for the fair-coin game in the framework of the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk \cite{sv}. In particular, concerning the rate of convergence of the strong law of large numbers (SLLN), we prove that Skeptic can force that the convergen…
New meta algorithm improves adaptability in changing environments.
problem Adapting to changing environments in online learning.
method Derives a new parameter-free algorithm for the LEA problem, inspired by coin betting.
result Strongly-adaptive regret bound is log ( T ) \sqrt{\log(T)} log ( T ) better than other algorithms. New algorithms learn latent variable models without tuning, outperforming existing methods.
problem Learning latent variable models without manual tuning.
method Two particle-based algorithms using free energy minimization and coin betting.
result Learning algorithms are entirely tuning-free and competitive with existing methods.
Maker Protocol manages Dai stable coin on Ethereum blockchain.
problem Managing decentralized finance applications on blockchain.
method Analyzes Maker Protocol's components and governance.
result Maker Protocol is a significant decentralized finance application.
Study sets a nontrivial upper limit on return forecasting accuracy.
problem Establishing a practical upper limit for return forecasting accuracy.
method Defined a coin-flip oracle model to theoretically outperform practical models and used its R e x t O O S 2 R^2_{ ext{OOS}} R e x t O O S 2 as an upper bound. result Theoretical upper bound on R e x t O O S 2 R^2_{ ext{OOS}} R e x t O O S 2 is a quadratic function of directional accuracy. New digital currency aims for equal wealth distribution.
problem Inequality in cryptocurrency wealth distribution.
method Egalitarian coin minting and joint minting across communities.
result Achieves global distributive justice in wealth distribution.
Study reveals RL game's embedding space is stratified, not a manifold.
problem Understanding the structure of RL game embeddings.
method Adapted Robinson's volume growth transform for RL setting.
result Token embedding space is stratified, not a manifold.
New algorithms for sampling in constrained domains without learning rates.
problem Sampling in constrained domains with fairness constraints and post-selection inference.
method Coin betting ideas from convex optimisation and a unifying framework for constrained sampling.
result Our algorithms achieve competitive performance without hyperparameter tuning.
C2P2 predicts cryptocurrency price movements considering similarities among coins.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency price movements using historical and sentiment data.
method Collective classification using similarity metrics for 21 cryptocurrencies.
result C2P2 outperforms existing methods by 5.1-83% on 21 cryptocurrencies.
Study replicability in high-dimensional statistics, resolving open problems.
problem Ensuring consistent results in high-dimensional statistical tasks.
method Introduced replicable learning algorithms and established computational and statistical equivalence with high-dimensional isoperimetric tilings.
result Matching sample complexity upper and lower bounds for replicable mean estimation and coin problem.