PSICA identifies best treatments for patients with categorical therapies.
problem Identifying best treatments for patients with categorical therapies.
method Decision tree approach for subgroup identification in categorical treatment scenarios.
result Outputs a decision tree showing probabilities of best treatments for patient subgroups.
The paper compares methods for estimating individual treatment effects.
problem Estimating the optimal treatment effect for each individual.
method Comparison of machine learning methods for individual treatment effect estimation.
result Combination of Logistic Regression and Difference Score method, as well as Uplift Random Forest method, provides the best prediction accuracy.
Study compares methods for treatment assignment, finding A-learner best for playlist generation.
problem Treatment assignment in various applications.
method Three classes of algorithms: O-learner, E-learner, A-learner.
result Optimizing for outcomes or causal effects does not lead to optimal treatment assignments.
New method for robustly estimating treatment effects across different risk levels.
problem Missing risks and tail events in CATE, especially in aggregate analyses.
method Constructing a pseudo-outcome and regressing it on covariates using any regression learner.
result Robust and model-agnostic learning of conditional distributional treatment effects (CDTE).
Heteroskedasticity biases uplift model rankings, leading to inefficient treatment allocation.
problem Bias in uplift model rankings due to heteroskedasticity.
method Theoretical analysis and simulation on real-world data.
result Heteroskedasticity can cause individuals with high treatment effects to be ranked at the bottom, leading to inefficient treatment allocation.
We study the problem of learning to choose from m discrete treatment options (e.g., news item or medical drug) the one with best causal effect for a particular instance (e.g., user or patient) where the training data consists of passive observations of covariates, treatment, and the outcome of the treatment. The standa…
The paper shows how expert knowledge can improve treatment effect estimation.
problem Lack of leveraging expert knowledge in treatment effect estimation.
method Formally defining two types of expertise (predictive and prognostic) and demonstrating their influence on treatment effect estimation methods.
result Expertise type significantly influences treatment effect estimation methods, and can be predicted from a dataset.
New methods optimize personalized treatment assignment in trials with many arms.
problem Poor performance of standard methods in trials with many treatment arms.
method Regularized and clustered joint assignment forest algorithm.
result Gains in predicting arm-wise outcomes and utility gains from personalization.
Many decisions in healthcare, business, and other policy domains are made without the support of rigorous evidence due to the cost and complexity of performing randomized experiments. Using observational data to answer causal questions is risky: subjects who receive different treatments also differ in other ways that a…
Machine learning predicts biologic therapy outcomes in psoriasis patients.
problem Predicting long-term biologic therapy outcomes in psoriasis patients.
method Machine learning algorithms were used to predict drug discontinuation and treatment duration.
result Machine learning models accurately predict outcomes with high diagnostic accuracy and low MAE.
Study optimizes experimental design for best treatment arm identification.
problem Identifying the best treatment arm given contextual information.
method Adaptive Sampling-Policy Learning (PLAS) strategy for minimax rate optimality.
result PLAS strategy achieves minimax rate optimality in expected simple regret.
Study predicts individual treatment effects in ride-sharing competitions.
problem Understanding how team competitions affect individual drivers' outcomes.
method Analyzed data from 500 competitions, built machine learning models.
result Reduced out-sample prediction error by over 24%.
Study best arm identification with contextual info, achieving optimal misidentification probability.
problem Identify the best treatment arm with minimal misidentification probability in a small gap scenario.
method Developed RS-AIPW strategy that matches lower bound of misidentification probability in the small-gap regime.
result RS-AIPW strategy is asymptotically optimal for best arm identification.
A treatment regime is a function that maps individual patient information to a recommended treatment, hence explicitly incorporating the heterogeneity in need for treatment across individuals. Patient responses are dichotomous and can be predicted through an unknown relationship that depends on the patient information …
Crowdsourced reinforcement learning optimizes knee replacement pathway, reducing costs.
problem Optimizing the sequential decision process for knee replacement surgery.
method Reinforcement learning, value iteration, state compression, kernel representation, cross validation.
result Optimized policy reduces overall cost by 7% and excessive cost premium by 33%.
In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the population. In applications, our method provides a data-driven approach to determine which…
We continue to develop our neural network (NN) based forecasting approach to anomaly detection (AD) using the Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) industrial control system (ICS) testbed dataset. We propose genetic algorithms (GA) to find the best NN architecture for a given dataset, using the NAB metric to assess the quality…
Develops methods to learn optimal treatment regimes using causal tree methods.
problem Lack of methods for estimating treatment effects and handling complex patient data.
method Causal tree and causal forest methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in cumulative regret and percentage of optimal decisions.
Paper presents a machine learning method to predict cancer sub-clones.
problem Predicting the growth of sub-clones in cancer tumors.
method Data-driven machine learning approach to capture sub-clonal characteristics.
result Machine learning can predict which sub-clones are more likely to grow.
Optimal adaptive experiment for choosing best treatment with binary outcomes.
problem Choosing the best treatment from binary options in an adaptive experiment.
method Adaptive experiment with two phases: treatment allocation and choice. Neyman allocation method used.
result Neyman allocation is minimax and Bayes optimal, matching lower bounds for regret.
New method selects best HTE estimator without ground-truth treatment effects.
problem Selecting best HTE estimator from multiple candidates.
method Cross-fitted, exponentially weighted test statistic with two-way sample splitting.
result Empirically, reliable error control and reduced false selections.
New test for binary treatment effects using kernel methods.
problem Testing distributional effects of binary treatments.
method Kernel-based doubly-robust test, avoiding permutations.
result Valid type-I error with computational efficiency.
Models predict patients at risk of uncontrolled hypertension.
problem Identifying patients at risk of uncontrolled hypertension.
method Developed machine learning models (logistic regression and recurrent neural networks) using EHR data.
result Best model achieved AUROC of 0.719, outperforming baseline.
MR estimator simplifies causal inference by combining models without hyperparameter tuning.
problem Difficulty in choosing optimal hyperparameters for neural network models in causal inference.
method Multiply Robust (MR) estimator that combines multiple first-step models.
result MR estimator is nr consistent and asymptotically normal under certain conditions. Dr.S recommends cancer drugs based on genomic data.
problem Personalizing cancer treatments using genomic information.
method Machine learning to identify optimal drug-gene associations.
result Developed a Drug Recommendation System (Dr.S) for cancer cell lines.
Paper uses stats to predict treatment choice based on illness probability.
problem Improving treatment decision-making in personalized medicine.
method Statistical decision theory with maximum regret evaluation.
result Estimates illness probability for better treatment choice.
We study the problem of policy evaluation and learning from batched contextual bandit data when treatments are continuous, going beyond previous work on discrete treatments. Previous work for discrete treatment/action spaces focuses on inverse probability weighting (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) methods that use a reject…
Framework generates personalized insulin treatment strategies using deep models.
problem Developing optimal personalized treatment strategies for diabetes patients.
method Combines deep generative time series models with decision theory.
result Demonstrated improved personalized insulin treatment strategies for diabetes patients.
CausalLongPFN predicts counterfactual outcomes from time-series data.
problem Predicting future outcomes under varying treatments in time-series data with confounding and heterogeneity.
method Prior-fitted network pretrained on synthetic episodes of temporal structural causal models.
result CausalLongPFN outperforms domain-trained models on factual and counterfactual prediction tasks.
Study shows auditing fairness of personalized interventions is impossible due to unknown ground truths.
problem Auditing fairness of personalized interventions in social services, education, and healthcare.
method Point-identification of quantities under monotone treatment response assumption, providing sensitivity analysis for violations.
result Proves impossibility of auditing fairness using standard metrics and provides methods for auditing using partially-identified ROC and xROC curves.
PNNs improve personalized healthcare policies using mixed integer programming.
problem Learning treatment policies for patients with limited data.
method Prescriptive networks (PNNs) trained with mixed integer programming.
result PNNs outperform existing methods in reducing peak blood pressure.
Paper uses a mix of deep and kernel learning to personalize sepsis treatment.
problem Managing sepsis in ICU patients due to individual variability.
method A mixture-of-experts framework combining kernel-based and deep reinforcement learning.
result The mixture-based approach outperforms individual methods on a large sepsis patient cohort.
Study estimates treatment effect on survival outcomes using targeted maximum likelihood estimation.
problem Estimating treatment effect on time-to-event outcomes in clinical settings.
method Divided into three phases: estimation, feature selection, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation.
result Method performs well in high sample size or event rate conditions.
This paper tackles data-efficient CEE with scarce labelled data, proposing a method to progressively reduce generalization risk.
problem Data scarcity in CEE tasks, especially in high-stake domains like medical treatment effect prediction.
method Develops a principled label acquisition pipeline (MACAL) for CEE tasks, focusing on reducing generalization risk progressively.
result Proposes Model Agnostic Causal Active Learning (MACAL) algorithm for batch-wise label acquisition.
Neural network feature optimization for causal inference.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data.
method Genetic algorithm optimization of intermediate neural network layers for feature representations.
result Retains useful features for outcome prediction even if related to treatment assignment.
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for the best linear predictor (approximation) of a structural function, such as conditional average structural and treatment effects, and structural derivatives, based on modern machine learning (ML) tools. We represent this structural function as a conditional expec…
Causal forests underestimate treatment effect heterogeneity, a correction is proposed.
problem Causal forests underestimate treatment effect heterogeneity in fixed-effects panel settings.
method Cross-fitted correction to estimate and restore the spread of conditional average treatment effects.
result The correction reduces mean-squared error by 25-42% in simulations and restores heterogeneity in a real-world panel study.
The paper develops deep learning models for personalized treatment rules in survival analysis.
problem Deriving optimal treatment rules for bivariate survival outcomes in randomized trials.
method Adaptive prediction-powered learning using deep neural networks and stochastic policies.
result Maximizes joint survival probability beyond fixed time points (t1,t2). Study evaluates machine learning for predicting treatment effects in observational studies.
problem Challenges in measuring treatment effects due to confounding bias in observational studies.
method Simulated two scenarios with and without confounding, using linear and non-linear relationships. Used machine learning models (linear regression, lasso regression, random forest) to predict counterfactuals and treatment effects.
result Machine learning models perform well under linearity but poorly under non-linearity, even in the presence of confounding.
Proposes a method for generating prediction intervals in dose-response models using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty quantification in continuous treatments for personalized healthcare decisions.
method Causal dose-response problem framed as covariate shift, using weighted conformal prediction with propensity estimation and kernel functions.
result Demonstrates the significance of covariate shift assumptions for robust prediction intervals.
Estimates individualized treatment effects using shared RBF-net neurons.
problem Identifying differential treatment effects based on covariates.
method Non-parametric radial basis function (RBF)-nets with shared hidden neurons in a Bayesian framework.
result Demonstrated through simulations and real data, the method identifies interesting treatment effects.
Enhances credit card limit adjustments by considering treatment uncertainty and prediction criteria.
problem Optimal treatment selection under multitreatment scenarios.
method Proposes a comprehensive methodology incorporating conditional value-at-risk and prediction criterion for continuous outcomes.
result Significantly improved policy performance in credit card limit adjustments.
Optimizes user marketing campaigns to balance cost and effectiveness.
problem Lack of methods to optimize marketing campaigns considering cost and effectiveness.
method Proposes a treatment effect optimization algorithm using deep learning to balance cost and effectiveness.
result Demonstrates superior performance in cost-efficiency and real-world business value.
Causal ML predicts treatment outcomes, aiding personalized medicine.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects for personalized medicine.
method Flexible, data-driven methods using causal inference with clinical trial and real-world data.
result Causal ML allows for estimating individualized treatment effects.
The paper proposes a method to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects using pretraining strategies.
problem Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in the presence of many covariates.
method The approach leverages prognostic factors that also predict treatment effect heterogeneity, using the R-learner framework.
result The proposed method improves estimation accuracy and power for detecting treatment effect heterogeneity.
Improving cancer treatment decisions requires considering causal effects, not just model accuracy.
problem Cancer outcome prediction models may cause harm when used for treatment decisions.
method Explains the importance of considering causal effects in model validation and provides guidelines.
result Building and validating models that are useful for decision making requires considering causal effects.
Bayesian model ranks treatments in multi-response experiments.
problem Identifying the best treatment among competing ideal properties.
method Bayesian approach with Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm.
result Reliable inference of treatment ranks in practice.
The paper identifies the best treatment to maximize NDPO, a key outcome in causal mediation analysis.
problem Identifying the treatment that maximizes the expected natural direct potential outcome (NDPO) in causal mediation analysis.
method Developed a fixed-confidence best-arm identification (BAI) algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop (TaS) framework, using a cutting-set method to solve a semi-infinite optimization problem.
result The proposed algorithm achieves sample-efficient identification with a high-probability correctness guarantee and asymptotic optimality.