EBBS integrates expert assessments into MIO best-subsets problem.
problem Identifying relevant features in statistical models.
method Expert-implied Bayesian approach using MIO.
result Reduces to classical best-subsets when experts are silent.
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48 results for “best expert”
The paper tackles efficient online learning by achieving minimal regret with respect to the best expert.
problem Achieving minimal regret in online learning problems where the goal is to match the lowest regret of K experts.
method A lazy form of the online subgradient algorithm is used to achieve minimal regret in 'easy' regimes.
result Minimal regret strategies exist for some 'hard' regimes, and the algorithm retains an worst-case regret guarantee.
Algorithm detects changes online using expert tracking.
problem Online change point detection in nonparametric settings.
method Sequential score function estimation and tracking the best expert approach.
result Algorithm performs well in artificial and real-world data.
With the increasing volume of data in the world, the best approach for learning from this data is to exploit an online learning algorithm. Online ensemble methods are online algorithms which take advantage of an ensemble of classifiers to predict labels of data. Prediction with expert advice is a well-studied problem i…
The article improves prediction by aggregating Kalman recursions online.
problem Improving expert aggregation in prediction models.
method Using exponential weights and state-space models to aggregate Kalman recursions.
result New algorithms outperform existing methods in Kalman recursion expert aggregation.
New algorithm reduces regret in strategic prediction problem.
problem Designing an IC algorithm with sublinear regret for strategic experts.
method Developed a new algorithm WSU-UX and proved a worst-case regret bound.
result WSU-UX suffers a lower bound on regret.
No-regret learning with strategic experts, incentivized.
problem Online learning with strategic experts who misreport beliefs.
method Building on wagering mechanisms, we provide algorithms for no-regret and incentive compatibility in both full and partial information settings.
result Our algorithms achieve no regret and incentive compatibility for myopic experts, with comparable regret to classic no-regret algorithms and diminishing regret for forward-looking agents.
A novel algorithm for actively trading stocks is presented. While traditional expert advice and "universal" algorithms (as well as standard technical trading heuristics) attempt to predict winners or trends, our approach relies on predictable statistical relations between all pairs of stocks in the market. Our empirica…
Improved regret bounds for bandits with expert advice.
problem Optimizing decision-making in environments with expert advice.
method Proved lower and upper bounds for regret in restricted and standard feedback models.
result Proved a new upper bound of order for the worst-case regret, matching a previously known lower bound.
Adaptive Bayesian learning aggregates experts to improve performance.
problem Bayesian online learning's performance depends on inferential choices.
method Treat Bayesian update rules as experts and aggregate them based on sequential predictive losses.
result The aggregate competes with the best expert in hindsight at a low aggregation cost.
FlowOE learns from experts to optimize financial trades.
problem Optimal execution in dynamic financial markets using static models.
method Imitation learning with flow matching models, incorporating refining loss function.
result Significantly outperforms expert models and traditional benchmarks.
The paper explores trade-offs between regret and variance in online learning algorithms.
problem Investigating the trade-offs between regret and variance in online learning.
method Analysis of the Exponentially Weighted Average (EWA) algorithm and its variants.
result A variant of EWA either achieves negative regret or guarantees a logarithmic bound on both variance and regret.
Paper improves regret bounds for distributed experts problem.
problem Minimizing loss in a distributed experts problem.
method Protocol achieving improved regret bound with minimized communication.
result Regret bound improved to .
Algorithm learns expert weights to minimize regret in adversarial setting.
problem Learning to aggregate expert forecasts with no-regret guarantee in adversarial conditions.
method Online mirror descent algorithm for logarithmic pooling of expert forecasts.
result Achieves expected regret compared to best weights.
Competency questions help experts select best clustering for energy data.
problem Ad hoc and subjective selection of clustering structures by domain experts.
method Formalize expert knowledge and requirements with competency questions.
result Competency questions improve reproducibility and evaluation of clustering applications.
New algorithm learns multiclass concepts with finite Littlestone dimension.
problem Agnostic online multiclass classification in adversarial settings.
method Multiplicative weights algorithm with experts based on subsequences.
result Proves agnostic learnability if and only if Littlestone dimension is finite.
Filtered not Mixed: Stochastic Filtering-Based Online Gating for Mixture of Large Language Modelscs.LG
MoE-F combines LLMs online for better time-series prediction.
problem Combining multiple LLMs for online time-series prediction.
method Time-adaptive stochastic filtering techniques to combine experts.
result MoE-F achieves 17% absolute and 48.5% relative F1 measure improvement.
We study the multiclass online learning problem where a forecaster makes a sequence of predictions using the advice of experts. Our main contribution is to analyze the regime where the best expert makes at most mistakes and to show that when , the expected number of mistakes made by the optima…
Meta-algorithm optimizes nonstochastic bandits with infinitely many experts.
problem Maximizing reward by choosing actions sequentially from a set of experts.
method Proposed a variant of Exp4.P for infinitely many experts and a meta-algorithm.
result Proved high-probability upper bound of on regret.
In this work we study the problem of inferring a discrete probability distribution using both expert knowledge and empirical data. This is an important issue for many applications where the scarcity of data prevents a purely empirical approach. In this context, it is common to rely first on an initial domain knowledge …
Optimal algorithm reduces regret in adversarial bandit problem with multiple plays.
problem Minimizing regret in adversarial bandit problem with multiple plays.
method Introducing a new expert advice algorithm for multiple-play setting, achieving minimax optimal regret bounds.
result Minimizes regret asymptotically to the best switching strategy with optimal bounds.
When dealing with time series with complex non-stationarities, low retrospective regret on individual realizations is a more appropriate goal than low prospective risk in expectation. Online learning algorithms provide powerful guarantees of this form, and have often been proposed for use with non-stationary processes …
The paper ranks experts based on task performance with noisy evaluations.
problem Ranking experts based on their performance across multiple tasks with noisy evaluations.
method Develops adaptive strategies for ranking experts with a bound on the number of queries.
result Proves strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts with high probability.
Improving Sepsis Treatment Strategies by Combining Deep and Kernel-Based Reinforcement Learningcs.LG
Sepsis is the leading cause of mortality in the ICU. It is challenging to manage because individual patients respond differently to treatment. Thus, tailoring treatment to the individual patient is essential for the best outcomes. In this paper, we take steps toward this goal by applying a mixture-of-experts framework …
Investigates fast prediction rates with limited expert advice.
problem Minimizing excess generalization error with limited expert access.
method Assumes Lipschitz and strongly convex loss, designs novel algorithms.
result Achieves fast rates of O(1/T) with optimal number of expert advices.
A new framework uses deep RL to aggregate expert advice for better portfolio management.
problem Improving portfolio management through expert advice and deep reinforcement learning.
method Convolutional networks for signal aggregation and historical price data, Proximal Policy Optimization algorithm.
result Our framework can achieve 90% of the best expert's profit on average.
New algorithms avoid a dominant lower-order term in heavy-tailed loss settings.
problem Prediction with heavy-tailed losses without prior knowledge.
method Adaptive algorithms that avoid the maximum of losses as a lower-order term in regret.
result Improved regret bounds of and .
A Generalized Online Algorithm for Translation and Scale Invariant Prediction with Expert Advicecs.LG
Generalized algorithm for translation and scale-invariant prediction.
problem Sequential prediction with expert advice, focusing on translation and scale invariance.
method Designing a generalized online algorithm using the universal prediction perspective to compete against a generic class of expert selection strategies.
result No preliminary knowledge of loss sequences is required; performance bounds are stable under arbitrary scalings and translations.
Consider a regression problem where there is no labeled data and the only observations are the predictions of experts over many samples . With no knowledge on the accuracy of the experts, is it still possible to accurately estimate the unknown responses ? Can one still detect the leas…
Sharp bounds found on expert error in binary advice aggregation.
problem Aggregating binary advice from conditionally independent experts.
method Sharp upper and lower bounds on optimal error probability in asymmetric case.
result Sharp bounds recover and sharpen known results in symmetric case.
Unified framework for expert selection with bandit and lower-bound feedback.
problem Selecting the best expert in scenarios with bandit feedback and lower-bound information.
method Introduces a new feedback model combining bandit and lower-bound information, proving optimal regret bounds for modified Exp3 algorithms.
result Optimal regret bounds for modified Exp3 algorithms, generalizing both bandit and full-information settings.
With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and conventional meteorological models, the numerical precipitation predictions are o…
New approach detects cyber-attacks in real-time.
problem Real-time detection of cyber-attacks for effective mitigation.
method Aggregates unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms and incorporates delayed feedback.
result Improves anomaly detection performance through theoretical guarantees.
Proposes a method to imitate active learning heuristics for better performance.
problem The performance of active learning heuristics depends on the classifier model and data structure.
method Imitates the selection of the best active learning heuristic using DAGGER.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art imitation learners and heuristics on well-known datasets.
We consider a variation on the problem of prediction with expert advice, where new forecasters that were unknown until then may appear at each round. As often in prediction with expert advice, designing an algorithm that achieves near-optimal regret guarantees is straightforward, using aggregation of experts. However, …
The paper proposes using experts' insights in machine learning tasks.
problem Lack of reliance on experts' opinions in machine learning tasks.
method A three-step framework for integrating experts' insights into machine learning models.
result Proposed models achieve more stable and lower log loss results compared to top solutions.
Study examines Lasso performance in high-dimensional MoE models.
problem Estimating MoE models in high-dimensional settings with Lasso.
method Investigates SGMoE models with Lasso regularization under mild assumptions.
result Provides non-asymptotic bounds for Lasso regularization parameter.
A new method uses a product of experts with Dirichlet variables to approximate complex distributions.
problem Approximating complex distributions with tractable models.
method A product of experts with auxiliary Dirichlet variables, using a Feynman identity to sample and optimize.
result The method efficiently approximates complex distributions using a product of experts and Dirichlet variables.
BIOMRC dataset improves MRC performance, especially for non-experts.
problem Improving machine reading comprehension in biomedical texts.
method Developed a new dataset and tested two neural models, along with a BERT-based model.
result BERT-based model outperforms all other methods and reaches expert-level accuracy.
No-regret incentive-compatible online learning under exact truthfulness with non-myopic expertscs.LG
A new mechanism reduces expert belief regret in online forecasting.
problem Minimizing expert belief regret in strategic forecasting.
method Developed a no-regret mechanism for non-myopic experts using online I-ELF.
result Achieved regret for full-information setting.
Study shows training duration impacts model merging quality, suggesting joint selection of duration and method.
problem Impact of expert training duration on model merging quality for large language models (LLMs).
method Systematically fine-tuned experts on five domains across three model sizes, evaluating five merging methods at each duration.
result Training duration affects merging quality, with simple averaging degrading sharply and sparsification-based methods performing well past the validation optimum.
Study shows training duration affects model merging quality, suggesting joint selection of duration and method.
problem Impact of expert training duration on model merging quality for large language models (LLMs).
method Systematically fine-tuned experts on five domains across three model sizes, evaluated five merging methods at each duration.
result Training duration and merging method should be chosen jointly, not independently.
New DP algorithms achieve near-optimal regret bounds for online learning problems.
problem Online learning problems with zero-loss solutions and differential privacy constraints.
method Developed new Differentially Private algorithms with near-optimal regret bounds.
result Achieved near-optimal regret bounds for various online prediction and convex optimization problems.
A new model improves the performance of knowledge distillation in GNNs.
problem Inconsistent performance of existing knowledge distillation techniques in GNNs.
method Proposes a new model, Routing-by-Memory (RbM), a form of Mixture-of-Experts (MoE), to address performance concerns.
result Demonstrates experimentally that RbM achieves considerably more consistent performance across multiple datasets.
We propose the first reduction-based approach to obtaining long-term memory guarantees for online learning in the sense of Bousquet and Warmuth, 2002, by reducing the problem to achieving typical switching regret. Specifically, for the classical expert problem with actions and rounds, using our framework we dev…
Learning compact and interpretable representations is a very natural task, which has not been solved satisfactorily even for simple binary datasets. In this paper, we review various ways of composing experts for binary data and argue that competitive forms of interaction are best suited to learn low-dimensional represe…
The promise of ANNs to automatically discover and extract useful features/patterns from data without dwelling on domain expertise although seems highly promising but comes at the cost of high reliance on large amount of accurately labeled data, which is often hard to acquire and formulate especially in time-series doma…
The goal of online prediction with expert advice is to find a decision strategy which will perform almost as well as the best expert in a given pool of experts, on any sequence of outcomes. This problem has been widely studied and and regret bounds can be achieved for convex losses (\cite{zin…