Study proposes a new approval policy for ML-based medical devices to prevent gradual performance degradation.
problem Gradual deterioration in machine learning model performance over time in medical devices.
method Formulated an automatic algorithmic change protocol (aACP) as an online hypothesis testing problem, considering both error-rate guarantees and non-guaranteed policies.
result Controlled the rate of gradual deterioration (biocreep) in machine learning models without significantly impacting approval of beneficial modifications.
Approves updates to machine learning models in healthcare based on accumulating data.
problem Designing policies to autonomously approve updates to machine learning algorithms in non-stationary settings.
method Learning-to-approve (L2A) approach that uses accumulating monitoring data to learn how to approve modifications.
result L2A learns to abstain when performance drops are common and approves beneficial modifications quickly when the distribution is stable.
RMT-Net tackles biased credit scoring data by learning from both default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
problem Missing-not-at-random selection bias in financial credit scoring data.
method Reject-aware Multi-Task Network (RMT-Net) that leverages the correlation between default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
result RMT-Net improves credit scoring models by learning from both default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
We discovered secular trend bias in a drug effectiveness study for a recently approved drug. We compared treatment outcomes between patients who received the newly approved drug and patients exposed to the standard treatment. All patients diagnosed after the new drug's approval date were considered. We built a machine …
Survey examines machine learning for credit rating predictions.
problem Manual loan approvals are slow and error-prone.
method Examines sentiment analysis techniques in credit rating.
result Machine learning improves credit rating predictions.
ETF approval boosts Bitcoin's correlation with equities, stabilizes with gold, and maintains negative correlation with fiat currencies.
problem Impact of Bitcoin ETF approval on Bitcoin's relationships with traditional assets.
method Rolling correlation analysis, Chow tests, and DCC-GARCH models.
result Bitcoin's correlation with equities increased significantly post-ETF approval, while its relationship with gold stabilized and remained negatively correlated with fiat currencies.
Machine learning models are increasingly used in the industry to make decisions such as credit insurance approval. Some people may be tempted to manipulate specific variables, such as the age or the salary, in order to get better chances of approval. In this ongoing work, we propose to discuss, with a first proposition…
No policy can simultaneously be fully autonomous, optimally calibrated, and helpful, proving a trilemma.
problem Proving impossibility of a policy achieving maximum helpfulness, optimal calibration, and full autonomy.
method Geometric proof showing that adding any non-affine autonomy incentive to a strictly proper scoring rule destroys strict properness.
result The Behavioral Credibility Trilemma: no policy can achieve all three goals simultaneously.
This study examines how ChiNext IPOs' initial returns are influenced by regulation regime changes.
problem Investors' behavior and pricing of ChiNext IPOs under different regulation regimes.
method Analysis of three time periods with two different regulation regimes and three sets of listing day trading restrictions.
result Regulation regime changes significantly impact ChiNext IPO pricing and overreaction.
Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multibillion-dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and b…
XGBoost predicts bank loan defaults with improved accuracy.
problem Predicting bank loan defaults to reduce bad loans.
method Used XGBoost algorithm on loan data.
result Improved accuracy metrics in loan default prediction.
Paper proposes a human-algorithm approach to reduce medical device recall risk and workload.
problem High recall rate and regulatory workload in FDA's 510(k) pathway.
method Developed machine learning models to estimate recall risk and proposed a data-driven clearance policy.
result Conservative evaluation of policy shows a 32.9% improvement in recall rate and 40.5% reduction in workload.
New voting strategies show committee-based consensus can scale efficiently.
problem Ensuring honest committees in committee-based consensus protocols.
method Empirical analysis of simpler voting strategies and their convergence to optimality.
result Simpler voting strategies converge to optimality exponentially quickly, ensuring robustness and efficiency.
Improved inter-scanner MS lesion segmentation through adversarial training.
problem Variability in MRI scanner or protocol differences affect automated lesion segmentation accuracy.
method Trained a CNN base model and a discriminator model adversarially on multi-scanner longitudinal data.
result Adversarial training improves inter-scanner consistency of lesion segmentations.
This work improves testing of machine learning model modifications using novel statistical methods.
problem Overfitting and conservative Bonferroni correction when testing multiple model modifications.
method Introduces alpha-recycling and SRGPs to control error rate and approve more beneficial modifications.
result Novel statistical methods approve a higher number of beneficial modifications than previous approaches.
New framework for adaptive clinical trials to address real-world challenges.
problem Real-world challenges in post-regulatory clinical trials.
method RFAN framework integrating regulatory constraints and treatment policy value.
result Empirical evaluation of RFAN's performance.
2024 saw Bitcoin ETF approval, offering regulated exposure.
problem Understanding unique liquidity risks in Bitcoin ETFs.
method Analyzed premium/discount patterns in first four months.
result Premium/discount behavior differs from traditional ETFs.
From positions, attained by modern theoretical physics in understanding of the universe bases, the methodological and philosophical analysis of fundamental physical concepts and their formal and informal connections with the real economic measurings is carried out. Procedures for heterogeneous economic time determinati…
In this paper, prediction for linear systems with missing information is investigated. New methods are introduced to improve the Mean Squared Error (MSE) on the test set in comparison to state-of-the-art methods, through appropriate tuning of Bias-Variance trade-off. First, the use of proposed Soft Weighted Prediction …
Generative neural networks improve insurance market risk modeling.
problem Creating realistic market risk scenarios for insurance companies.
method Using generative adversarial networks (GANs) to generate economic scenarios.
result GAN-based models produce similar results to traditional regulatory models.
Reinforcement Learning improves insulin bolus decisions for type-I diabetes patients.
problem Optimal insulin bolus decisions for type-I diabetes patients are not well-established.
method Applied Reinforcement Learning to simulated T1DM data.
result Optimal bolus rule differs from standard advisors and can prevent hypoglycemia.
Classifies knots by lattice size, finding unknot ratios and crossing numbers.
problem Understanding the distribution of knots within different lattice sizes.
method Introduced a new knot classification by lattice size, analyzed ratios of unknots and knots with more than 10 crossings, and compared with theoretical estimates.
result Ratio of unknots decreases exponentially with lattice size, and computational results match theoretical estimates.
Formula connects analytic torsion forms of fibration and its pieces.
problem Analytic torsion forms of a fibration and its pieces.
method Adiabatic limit and Witten deformation on flat vector bundle.
result Gluing formula relating analytic torsion forms.
I present here an experimental system for identifying and annotating metaphor in corpora. It is designed to plug in to Metacorps, an experimental web app for annotating metaphor. As Metacorps users annotate metaphors, the system will use user annotations as training data. When the system is confident, it will suggest a…
We present and evaluate Deep Private-Feature Extractor (DPFE), a deep model which is trained and evaluated based on information theoretic constraints. Using the selective exchange of information between a user's device and a service provider, DPFE enables the user to prevent certain sensitive information from being sha…
Designing a new drug is a lengthy and expensive process. As the space of potential molecules is very large (10^23-10^60), a common technique during drug discovery is to start from a molecule which already has some of the desired properties. An interdisciplinary team of scientists generates hypothesis about the required…
The study examines how social biases are reinforced in machine learning models used for credit scoring.
problem Reinforcement of societal biases in machine learning algorithms for credit scoring.
method Analysis of machine learning models predicting gender or ethnicity based on loan applications data.
result Machine learning models can reflect and reinforce social biases present in the data.
Paper explores a consumer-friendly approach to explain machine learning decisions.
problem Challenges in providing understandable explanations for machine learning predictions.
method Consumer-driven approach called TED that asks for explanations in training data.
result TED is robust to increasing numbers of explanations, noisy explanations, and missing explanations.
AI framework predicts invoice dilution in supply chain finance.
problem Invoice dilution risk in supply chain finance.
method AI, machine learning, dynamic credit limits, real-time projections.
result Supplemental AI model improves prediction accuracy.
Research shows that information asymmetry affects how quickly companies adjust their capital structure and expected returns.
problem The relationship between capital structure adjustment speed and expected returns is influenced by information asymmetry.
method A hybrid data regression model was used to test the hypotheses based on data from 120 companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange.
result Information asymmetry positively affects the relationship between capital structure adjustment speed and expected returns.
Financial decisions impact our lives, and thus everyone from the regulator to the consumer is interested in fair, sound, and explainable decisions. There is increasing competitive desire and regulatory incentive to deploy AI mindfully within financial services. An important mechanism towards that end is to explain AI d…
Fairness has become a central issue for our research community as classification algorithms are adopted in societally critical domains such as recidivism prediction and loan approval. In this work, we consider the potential bias based on protected attributes (e.g., race and gender), and tackle this problem by learning …
New AI error correctors improve classifier performance with provable guarantees.
problem Improving AI classifier performance with scarce training data.
method Weakly supervised AI error correctors with performance guarantees.
result Provable performance guarantees for AI error correction.
PerfGD solves model-induced data shifts by finding optimal points.
problem Model-induced data shifts where model choice changes data distribution.
method Performative Gradient Descent (PerfGD) which explicitly captures model-data interactions.
result PerfGD provably converges to performatively optimal point.
The paper breaks down AUC into cluster-level components for better model diagnostics.
problem Global AUC masks weaknesses in specific subpopulations, leading to financial or operational risks.
method Formal decomposition of AUC into intra- and inter-cluster components, comparing with other performance metrics.
result Allows practitioners to evaluate and diagnose model performance within and across clusters.
The paper explores how to learn models that respect constraints in probabilistic learning.
problem Learning models that respect declared constraints in probabilistic learning.
method Mathematical inquiry on tractable probabilistic models like sum-product networks.
result Determines conditions under which constraints can be integrated with model learning.
Machine learning models outperform traditional technical analysis in Bitcoin trading.
problem Maximizing profits in the Bitcoin market using trading signals.
method Comparison of machine learning models (LightGBM, LSTM) and technical analysis strategies (EMA, MACD+ADX).
result LSTM model achieved a 65.23% cumulative return over a year, significantly outperforming other strategies.
We propose a fair principal component analysis method that balances reconstruction error and subgroup fairness.
problem Fairness and robustness in principal component analysis for consequential domains.
method Distributionally robust optimization over the Stiefel manifold with a Riemannian subgradient descent.
result The proposed method achieves better performance on real-world datasets compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
Potential Future Exposure (PFE) is a standard risk metric for managing business unit counterparty credit risk but there is debate on how it should be calculated. The debate has been whether to use one of many historical ("physical") measures (one per calibration setup), or one of many risk-neutral measures (one per num…
Method learns drug-disease representations for repositioning opportunities.
problem Identifying new uses for existing drugs.
method Multi-relation unsupervised graph embedding model.
result Superior prediction performance in repositioning opportunities.
Researchers introduce a method to assess the safety of interpretable machine learning models.
problem Ensuring safety in machine learning models that are easy to understand.
method Introduce maximum deviation as an optimization problem to find the largest deviation from a safe reference model.
result Interpretability helps in assessing the safety of machine learning models.
Machine learning models are increasingly used to automate decisions that affect humans - deciding who should receive a loan, a job interview, or a social service. In such applications, a person should have the ability to change the decision of a model. When a person is denied a loan by a credit score, for example, they…
One of the key elements in the banking industry rely on the appropriate selection of customers. In order to manage credit risk, banks dedicate special efforts in order to classify customers according to their risk. The usual decision making process consists in gathering personal and financial information about the borr…
Android and Facebook provide third-party applications with access to users' private data and the ability to perform potentially sensitive operations (e.g., post to a user's wall or place phone calls). As a security measure, these platforms restrict applications' privileges with permission systems: users must approve th…
Adapts GRPO for off-policy RL, improving reward.
problem Improving training stability and efficiency in RL.
method Adapts GRPO to off-policy setting, uses clipped surrogate objectives.
result Off-policy GRPO outperforms on-policy GRPO in empirical tests.
Paper tackles efficient evaluation of natural stochastic policies in offline RL.
problem Efficiency issues in evaluating natural stochastic policies due to unknown evaluation policy.
method Derive efficiency bounds for tilting and modified treatment policies, propose nonparametric estimators.
result Proposed estimators attain efficiency bounds under lax conditions and enjoy partial double robustness.
ShapShift explains shifts in model predictions due to data distribution changes.
problem Prediction shifts caused by changes in input distribution.
method Subgroup Conditional Shapley Values applied to decision trees and ensembles.
result Simple, faithful, and near-complete explanations of prediction shifts across model classes.
Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine algorithms, together with Linear and Non-Linear Deep Neural Networks, are applied to lending data in order to replicate lender acceptance of loans and predict the likelihood of default of issued loans. A two phase model is proposed; the first phase predicts loan rejection,…