A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper presents an analytical treatment of economic systems with an arbitrary number of agents that keeps track of the systems' interactions and agents' complexity. This formalism does not seek to aggregate agents. It rather replaces the standard optimization approach by a probabilistic description of both the enti…
New learning methods for open systems with variable agents.
problem Learning in open systems with dynamic agent arrivals and departures.
method Formulated a unified open-system bandit problem with general dynamics, introducing new concepts like pre-training degree and stability.
result Certified global-UCB learning methodologies with provable guarantees, revealing dependencies between entry uncertainty, stability, and agent patterns.
We formulate and analyze a multi-agent model for the evolution of individual and systemic risk in which the local agents interact with each other through a central agent who, in turn, is influenced by the mean field of the local agents. The central agent is stabilized by a bistable potential, the only stabilizing force…
This paper studies the correlations of the average winnings of agents and the volatilities of systems based on mix-game model which is an extension of minority game (MG). In mix-game, there are two groups of agents; group1 plays the majority game, but the group2 plays the minority game. The results show that the correl…
We analyze systems of agents sharing light-tailed risky claims issued by different financial objects. Assuming exponentially distributed claims, we obtain that both agents' and system's losses follow generalized exponential mixture distributions. We show that this leads to qualitatively different results on individual …
The behavioral dynamics of multi-agent systems have a rich and orderly structure, which can be leveraged to understand these systems, and to improve how artificial agents learn to operate in them. Here we introduce Relational Forward Models (RFM) for multi-agent learning, networks that can learn to make accurate predic…
Inferring the laws of interaction between particles and agents in complex dynamical systems from observational data is a fundamental challenge in a wide variety of disciplines. We propose a non-parametric statistical learning approach to estimate the governing laws of distance-based interactions, with no reference or a…
The dynamics of many socioeconomic systems is determined by the decision making process of agents. The decision process depends on agent's characteristics, such as preferences, risk aversion, behavioral biases, etc.. In addition, in some systems the size of agents can be highly heterogeneous leading to very different i…
We present the MagNet, a neural network-based multi-agent interaction model to discover the governing dynamics and predict evolution of a complex multi-agent system from observations. We formulate a multi-agent system as a coupled non-linear network with a generic ordinary differential equation (ODE) based state evolut…
INTAGS uses interactive simulation to improve realism in multi-agent systems.
problem Challenges in developing realistic agent-based simulators for multi-agent systems.
method INTAGS introduces a novel metric to evaluate the difference between real and synthetic multi-agent systems, optimizing a stochastic policy in reinforcement learning to adapt to interactive sequential decision-making environments.
result INTAGS generates more realistic market data compared to state-of-the-art approaches.
Paper tackles delays in multi-agent reinforcement learning, improving performance.
problem Challenges in reinforcement learning due to delays in real-world systems.
method Proposes a novel framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning with delays, using Delay-Aware Markov Games and centralized-decentralized training.
result Demonstrates significant improvement in performance with delay-aware multi-agent reinforcement learning.
This paper measures temperature in agent systems using volatility.
problem How to measure temperature in agent systems.
method Examined an agent system with two decision options in a news environment, established the measurement equation, and outlined the concept of temperature measurement.
result Illustrated a strategy for influencing average opinion in competing subsystems.
Inferring a person's goal from their behavior is an important problem in applications of AI (e.g. automated assistants, recommender systems). The workhorse model for this task is the rational actor model - this amounts to assuming that people have stable reward functions, discount the future exponentially, and construc…
NOHD optimizes multi-agent systems by decomposing dynamics into irrotational and solenoidal components.
problem Non-stationarity and conflicting interests in multi-agent learning problems.
method NOHD (Newton Optimization on Helmholtz Decomposition) decomposes system dynamics into irrotational and solenoidal components.
result NOHD ensures quadratic convergence in purely irrotational and solenoidal systems and attracts to stable fixed points in general multi-agent systems.
This thesis analyzes MACL systems with low-regret learning algorithms for sequential decision making.
problem Designing efficient learning algorithms for multi-agent cooperative systems to minimize regret.
method Analyzes and develops algorithms for cooperative multi-agent multi-armed bandit problems and online convex optimization in distributed settings.
result Presented regret lower bounds and efficient algorithms for achieving these bounds, providing guidance on communication protocols.
Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique to understand the collective behavior and microscopic interaction in complex financial systems. Recently, the concept for determining the key parameters of the agent-based models from empirical data instead of setting them artificially was suggested. We first revi…
Modeling agent behavior is central to understanding the emergence of complex phenomena in multiagent systems. Prior work in agent modeling has largely been task-specific and driven by hand-engineering domain-specific prior knowledge. We propose a general learning framework for modeling agent behavior in any multiagent …
A deterministic system of interacting agents is considered as a model for economic dynamics. The dynamics of the system is described by a coupled map lattice with near neighbor interactions. The evolution of each agent results from the competition between two factors: the agent's own tendency to grow and the environmen…