This study examines the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) in Japanese stock markets (TOPIX and TSE2). In particular, we measure the degree of market efficiency by using a time-varying model approach. The empirical results show that (1) the degree of market efficiency changes over time in the two markets, (2) the level o…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “adaptive market hypothesis”
China's stock market is the largest emerging market all over the world. It is widely accepted that the Chinese stock market is far from efficiency and it possesses possible linear and nonlinear dependence. We study the predictability of returns in the Chinese stock market by employing the wild bootstrap automatic varia…
This study examines whether the efficiency of cryptocurrency markets (Bitcoin and Ethereum) evolve over time based on Lo's (2004) adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). In particular, we measure the degree of market efficiency using a generalized least squares-based time-varying model that does not depend on sample size, un…
We investigate whether fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and invest- ment horizons give reasonable predictions about dynamics of the financial markets during the turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, fractal markets hy…
Paper proposes an EKF for estimating time-varying market efficiency.
problem Estimating time-varying market efficiency under nonlinear dynamics.
method Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for time-varying autoregressive models.
result U.S. market generally remained weak-form efficient since mid-1946.
LLMs in financial markets show diverse behaviors, from stable to speculative, challenging rational expectations.
problem Understanding the economic behaviors of LLMs in financial markets.
method Simulated financial market with 15 LLMs of varying sizes and capabilities.
result LLMs exhibit a spectrum of behaviors, including speculative bubbles, inconsistent with rational expectations.
Adaptive volatility method improves probabilistic financial forecasting.
problem Probabilistic forecasting in financial markets.
method Adapts classical time-varying volatility models with online stochastic optimization.
result Ranked 5th in M6 financial forecasting competition.
Study shows how market efficiency changes during the pandemic.
problem Understanding market efficiency during the pandemic.
method Applied time-varying vector autoregression model.
result Market efficiency changes over time and can be improved by enhanced linkages.
A Kyle-inspired model with adaptive agents explains excess volatility and volatility clustering.
problem Reconciling asymmetrically informed traders with adaptive market hypothesis.
method Proposes a model with adaptive agents using inductive reasoning, reconciling Kyle model with Adaptive Market Hypothesis.
result Microfoundations for GARCH models and volatility clustering explained.
This note comprises a negative resolution of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
Adaptive learning model forecasts financial prices using order book data.
problem Forecasting high-frequency financial time series with non-stationary data.
method Adaptive learning model based on order book data, with stationarity and non-stationarity considerations.
result The model outperforms top fixed models and improves forecasting accuracy.
This study explores the time-varying structure of market efficiency in the prewar and wartime Japanese stock market using a new market capitalization-weighted stock price index, the equity performance index. We examine whether the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) is supported in that era. First, we find that the degree…
This paper uses spectrum analysis to understand price behavior in the Indian stock market.
problem Understanding price formation and discovery in the Indian stock market.
method Adapting mathematical physics theories and spectrum analysis to decompose price cycles.
result Decomposing price cycles helps in understanding the effect of information on price formation and discovery.
Study shows how diverse investors' learning and preferences shape financial markets.
problem Understanding how diverse investor behaviors and preferences affect market dynamics.
method Developed a multi-agent reinforcement learning framework with heterogeneous preferences and learning mechanisms.
result Diverse investors develop differentiated strategies through interaction, leading to realistic market dynamics.
Develops a new model for measuring extremal dependence in financial markets.
problem Lack of suitable models for studying extremal dependence in financial markets.
method Constructs regular variation models on and develops a bivariate measure for asymmetry in extremal dependence.
result Rejects the Efficient Tail Hypothesis for China's futures market and identifies profitable investment opportunities.
This paper investigates the time-varying risk-premium relation of the Chinese stock markets within the framework of cross-sectional momentum and contrarian effects by adopting the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the French-Fama three factor model. The evolving arbitrage opportunities are also studied by quantifying the…
We analyze whether the prediction of the fractal markets hypothesis about a dominance of specific investment horizons during turbulent times holds. To do so, we utilize the continuous wavelet transform analysis and obtained wavelet power spectra which give the crucial information about the variance distribution across …
In this article, the long-term behavior of the stock market index of the New York Stock Exchange is studied, for the period 1950 to 2013. Specifically, the CRSP Value-Weighted and CRSP Equal-Weighted index are analyzed in terms of market efficiency, using the standard ratio variance test, considering over 1600 one week…
We detect the backbone of the weighted bipartite network of the Japanese credit market relationships. The backbone is detected by adapting a general method used in the investigation of weighted networks. With this approach we detect a backbone that is statistically validated against a null hypothesis of uniform diversi…
Optimal domain adaptation model using Fisher's Linear Discriminant.
problem Improving classification accuracy across different domains.
method Convex combination of source and target hypotheses, derived under 0-1 loss.
result Effective classifier can be computed without direct source task information.
New method selects optimal bandwidth for price return density estimation, impacting efficient market hypothesis evaluation.
problem Estimating the complexity of price return distributions using kernel density estimation.
method Proposes a new complexity measure to select optimal bandwidth, avoiding overfitting and underfitting.
result Optimal bandwidth selection leads to clearer evaluation of the efficient market hypothesis.
The paper shows real market exists free lunches with vanishing risks.
problem The hypothesis of no free lunches with vanishing risk in real markets.
method Accurately hedged extreme-maturity zero-coupon bond.
result FLVRs naturally exist in the real market.
We pursue the quantum-mechanical challenge to the efficient market hypothesis for the stock market by employing the quantum Brownian motion model. We utilize the quantum Caldeira-Leggett master equation as a possible phenomenological model for the stock-market-prices fluctuations while introducing the external harmonic…
The IMH suggests market price fluctuations are driven by order flow, not fundamental values.
problem Reconciling IMH with microstructure literature on market dynamics.
method Reviewed empirical facts and applied Latent Liquidity Theory to predict price impact multiplier.
result The multiplier is of order unity, consistent with IMH, and depends on stock volatility and daily traded market cap fraction.
This paper introduces localized discrepancy theories for unsupervised domain adaptation.
problem Improving generalization bounds for unsupervised domain adaptation.
method Localized discrepancies defined on the hypothesis space after localization, leading to smaller and asymmetric values.
result Improved generalization bounds and sample complexity reduction.
AI simplifies trading strategies, potentially making markets more efficient.
problem Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) relies on traders optimising trading strategies based on information.
method Generalised notion of market efficiency, distinguishing model complexity through investor beliefs and trading strategies.
result Increased availability of low-cost AI systems may push towards more advanced trading strategies, potentially harder for inefficient traders.
SATL adapts to varying smoothness in hypothesis transfer learning.
problem Fixed kernel regularization fails in varying smoothness settings.
method Proposes SATL, a two-phase KRR algorithm with adaptive Gaussian kernels.
result SATL achieves minimax optimality with matching upper and lower bounds.
Evaluating the Financial Market Function in Prewar Japan using a Time-Varying Parameter Modelq-fin.ST
This study evaluates prewar Japanese financial market efficiency using time-varying models.
problem Determining when prewar Japanese financial market lost its price formation function.
method Time-varying parameter model, generalized least squares-based time-varying vector autoregressive model.
result The prewar Japanese financial market lost its price formation function in 1932.
Statistical test rejects market efficiency using entropy from price returns.
problem Determining market efficiency using information theory.
method Symbolic representation of price returns, Shannon entropy, and statistical test.
result Rejects market efficiency hypothesis for various datasets.
Endogenous randomness emerges from adversarial market learning.
problem Market randomness
method Deterministic adversarial market model
result Out-of-sample profitability collapses to zero.
The possibility that the collective dynamics of a set of stocks could lead to a specific basket violating the efficient market hypothesis is investigated. Precisely, we show that it is systematically possible to form a basket with a non-trivial autocorrelation structure when the examined time scales are at the order of…
Study finds Bitcoin market efficient, no exploitable inefficiencies with neural networks.
problem Investigating market inefficiencies in Bitcoin using neural networks.
method Used a feedforward neural network with various asset-related input features.
result Adding more features does not improve prediction accuracy, and one feature set outperforms a buy-and-hold strategy.
Study finds mixed evidence of monthly stock market anomalies in Turkey and US.
problem Investigating whether stock markets exhibit abnormal returns monthly.
method Statistical summary analysis, decomposition technique, dummy variable estimation, binary logistic regression.
result Weak evidence against efficient market hypothesis on monthly returns, with notable May effect in Turkey.
Develops a validated trading framework for market microstructure signals.
problem Overfitting and lookahead bias in algorithmic trading.
method Interpretable hypothesis-driven signal generation, reinforcement learning, strict out-of-sample testing.
result Modest annualized returns with strong downside protection and market-neutral characteristics.
Machine learning models show intermarket data can predict stock market performance better than expected.
problem Evaluating the semi-strong form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
method Used machine learning techniques on various intermarket data sets to predict stock market performance.
result Intermarket data significantly outperforms baselines in predicting stock market movement, contradicting the semi-strong EMH.
We discuss martingales, detrending data, and the efficient market hypothesis for stochastic processes x(t) with arbitrary diffusion coefficients D(x,t). Beginning with x-independent drift coefficients R(t) we show that Martingale stochastic processes generate uncorrelated, generally nonstationary increments. Generally,…
Current statistical inference problems in areas like astronomy, genomics, and marketing routinely involve the simultaneous testing of thousands -- even millions -- of null hypotheses. For high-dimensional multivariate distributions, these hypotheses may concern a wide range of parameters, with complex and unknown depen…
"It Looks All the Same to Me": Cross-index Training for Long-term Financial Series Predictionq-fin.ST
Study examines cross-training neural networks for financial index prediction.
problem Predicting financial indexes from different markets using machine learning.
method Investigated various neural network architectures and trained them on one market index to predict another.
result Cross-training models on one market index improved prediction accuracy for another market index.
Paper tackles hypothesis transfer learning for black-box models.
problem Difficult to build universal machine learning models across different institutions.
method Dynamic Knowledge Distillation (dkdHTL) with instance-wise weighting.
result Empirical results show the effectiveness of dkdHTL.
We investigate the continuity of expected exponential utility maximization with respect to perturbation of the Sharpe ratio of markets. By focusing only on continuity, we impose weaker regularity conditions than those found in the literature. Specifically, we require, in addition to the -compactness hypothesis of La…
In this chapter we review some recent results on the dynamics of price formation in financial markets and its relations with the efficient market hypothesis. Specifically, we present the limit order book mechanism for markets and we introduce the concepts of market impact and order flow, presenting their recently disco…
Market efficiency at least requires the absence of weak arbitrage opportunities, but this is not sufficient to establish a situation where the market is sensitive, i.e., where it "fully reflects" or "rapidly adjusts to" some information flow including the evolution of asset prices. By contrast, No Weak Arbitrage togeth…
We derive formulas for the performance of capital assets in continuous time from an efficient market hypothesis, with no stochastic assumptions and no assumptions about the beliefs or preferences of investors. Our efficient market hypothesis says that a speculator with limited means cannot beat a particular index by a …
In this work we use Recurrent Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptrons to predict NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX stock prices from historical data. We experiment with different architectures and compare data normalization techniques. Then, we leverage those findings to question the efficient-market hypothesis through a formal…
On Bitcoin Price Predictionq-fin.ST
This paper examines Bitcoin's price predictability, finding inefficiencies under certain conditions.
problem Predictability of Bitcoin's price movements.
method Theoretical reviews, empirical analyses, machine learning approaches, time series modeling.
result Bitcoin's market tends toward efficiency but shows exploitable inefficiencies under specific conditions.
It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysics framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single s…
Private online FDR control for adaptive testing under differential privacy.
problem Controlling false discoveries in adaptive multiple hypothesis testing with privacy constraints.
method Private online algorithms based on non-private results, ensuring privacy and statistical performance.
result Strong guarantees for privacy and statistical performance in FDR and power.
New model explains volatility after extreme stock market events.
problem Understanding volatility dynamics after extreme stock market events.
method Proposed a new dynamical model using high frequency minute data.
result Volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay initially and a power law decay later.