ATLAS uses LLMs to adaptively trade by optimizing prompts and coordinating agents.
problem Adapting LLMs for real-time financial decision-making in noisy markets.
method ATLAS integrates structured market data, uses Adaptive-OPRO for prompt optimization, and employs multi-agent coordination.
result Adaptive-OPRO consistently outperforms fixed prompts in financial trading.
The average economic agent is often used to model the dynamics of simple markets, based on the assumption that the dynamics of many agents can be averaged over in time and space. A popular idea that is based on this seemingly intuitive notion is to dampen electric power fluctuations from fluctuating sources (as e.g. wi…
AMSAs adaptively manage crypto-currency trading by selecting multiple strategies based on market conditions.
problem Maximizing gains in volatile crypto-currency markets with high uncertainty.
method AMSAs use multiple sub-agents with different strategies, dynamically selecting them based on market conditions.
result AMSAs can achieve high positive alpha in long-term crypto-currency trading.
Study shows how adaptive market agents can lead to persistent overpricing in financial markets.
problem Persistent overpricing in financial markets by adaptive market agents.
method Analyzes a repeated game between market maker and market taker, decomposes the game into competitive and collaborative components, and uses projected stochastic gradient ascent.
result Decentralized learning by adaptive market agents can lead to persistent overpricing in financial markets.
LLMs in financial markets show diverse behaviors, from stable to speculative, challenging rational expectations.
problem Understanding the economic behaviors of LLMs in financial markets.
method Simulated financial market with 15 LLMs of varying sizes and capabilities.
result LLMs exhibit a spectrum of behaviors, including speculative bubbles, inconsistent with rational expectations.
MASA framework uses RL to balance portfolio returns and risks.
problem Managing portfolio risk in turbulent financial markets.
method Multi-agent reinforcement learning with a market observer.
result MASA framework outperforms RL approaches in balancing returns and risks.
Study shows how diverse investors' learning and preferences shape financial markets.
problem Understanding how diverse investor behaviors and preferences affect market dynamics.
method Developed a multi-agent reinforcement learning framework with heterogeneous preferences and learning mechanisms.
result Diverse investors develop differentiated strategies through interaction, leading to realistic market dynamics.
Improved ABFMs capture market complexities, aiding policy decisions.
problem Limited usefulness of current ABFMs due to missing microstructure and agent behaviors.
method Developed ABMMS with realistic market structure, communication, and auction mechanisms; populated with adaptive agents.
result Generated data from ABMMS more accurately reflects real market phenomena.
AGENTICAITA uses AI agents to autonomously trade markets without human intervention.
problem Inability of traditional trading systems to adapt to market complexity.
method Introduces an agentic AI framework with specialized LLM agents reasoning, negotiating, and acting.
result Demonstrated operational correctness and non-trivial inter-agent negotiation in live market conditions.
Study uses RL to simulate realistic market behavior.
problem Traditional market simulators lack realistic dynamic behavior.
method Agent-based simulation with reinforcement learning agents.
result RL agents simulate realistic stylized facts and market behavior.
A Kyle-inspired model with adaptive agents explains excess volatility and volatility clustering.
problem Reconciling asymmetrically informed traders with adaptive market hypothesis.
method Proposes a model with adaptive agents using inductive reasoning, reconciling Kyle model with Adaptive Market Hypothesis.
result Microfoundations for GARCH models and volatility clustering explained.
We introduce a framework to study the effective objectives at different time scales of financial market microstructure. The financial market can be regarded as a complex adaptive system, where purposeful agents collectively and simultaneously create and perceive their environment as they interact with it. It has been s…
A trading system uses LLMs to adapt to volatile crypto markets.
problem Volatility and market sentiment in cryptocurrencies make traditional models ineffective.
method Specialized LLM agents for technical analysis, sentiment evaluation, and decision-making; verbal feedback for continuous improvement.
result Agents outperform buy-and-hold strategy with consistent gains across market phases.
We study the relation between the trading behavior of agents and volatility in toy markets of adaptive inductively rational agents. We show that excess volatility, in such simplified markets, arises as a consequence of {\em i)} the neglect of market impact implicit in price taking behavior and of {\em ii)} excessive re…
Survey examines agentic AI in finance, highlighting its autonomy and challenges.
problem Autonomous AI systems in finance and their implications.
method Systematic review of research, technical architectures, market applications, and governance frameworks.
result Agentic AI offers enhanced market efficiency but introduces new risks.
We show how a multi-agent simulator can support two important but distinct methods for assessing a trading strategy: Market Replay and Interactive Agent-Based Simulation (IABS). Our solution is important because each method offers strengths and weaknesses that expose or conceal flaws in the subject strategy. A key weak…
Study coevolutionary trading-agent dynamics in continuous strategies.
problem Understanding adaptive trading-agent interactions in complex markets.
method Experimental study of adaptive automated trading agents in a continuous strategy space.
result High-dimensional coevolutionary dynamics pose challenges in market analysis.
We describe a simple model for speculative trading based on adaptive behavior of economic agents.The adaptive behavior is expressed through a feedback mechanism for changing agents' stock-to-bond ratios, depending on the past performance of their portfolios.The stock price is set according to the demand-supply for the …
Researchers calibrate an adaptive Farmer-Joshi model to recover stylized facts in financial markets.
problem Recovering stylized facts in financial markets using the Farmer-Joshi model.
method Calibrated an adaptive Farmer-Joshi model using genetic and Nelder-Mead algorithms, incorporating agent adaptation.
result The adaptive model recovers additional stylized facts, including auto-correlations and kurtosis, compared to the original model.
Study models opaque financial markets using multi-agent simulation.
problem Challenges in financial markets with obscured data availability.
method Multi-agent simulation with small-scale meta-heuristic methods.
result Captures bilateral market dynamics of OTC trading.
Enhances financial analysis with multi-agent collaboration.
problem Limited use of AI-agent collaboration in financial research.
method Proposes a multi-agent system for financial investment research.
result Multi-agent system outperforms single-agent models.
ABIDES-MARL uses MARL to study market behavior in a realistic financial simulation.
problem Understanding equilibrium behavior in complex financial market games.
method Combines MARL with a realistic LOB simulation to study market behavior.
result Validated approach by solving an extended Kyle model and showing how execution strategies shape market dynamics.
Paper uses agent-based simulation to identify investor types in financial markets.
problem Identifying investor types in real financial markets.
method Computational adaptation of PCA with agent-based simulation.
result A reduced set of investor models can approximate financial time series.
QTMRL uses RL with multi-indicators to improve trading adaptability.
problem Traditional trading models fail in volatile markets due to rigid assumptions.
method Combines multi-indicators with RL for adaptive portfolio management.
result QTMRL outperforms baselines in profitability and risk control.
Paper uses RL for market making, improving stability in non-stationary markets.
problem Optimizing market making strategies in non-stationary limit order book dynamics.
method Reinforcement Learning (Proximal-Policy Optimization) applied to a simulator.
result RL agent outperforms closed-form optimal solution in non-stationary markets.
Securities markets are quintessential complex adaptive systems in which heterogeneous agents compete in an attempt to maximize returns. Species of trading agents are also subject to evolutionary pressure as entire classes of strategies become obsolete and new classes emerge. Using an agent-based model of interacting he…
Paper uses SAC and DDPG to optimize cryptocurrency portfolios.
problem Adapting to volatile and nonlinear cryptocurrency markets.
method Reinforcement learning with SAC and DDPG algorithms.
result SAC and DDPG outperform traditional strategies in cryptocurrency markets.
In speculative markets, risk-free profit opportunities are eliminated by traders exploiting them. Markets are therefore often described as "informationally efficient", rapidly removing predictable price changes, and leaving only residual unpredictable fluctuations. This classical view of markets absorbing information a…
We extend to the multi-asset case the framework of a discrete time model of a single asset financial market developed in Ghoulmie et al (2005). In particular, we focus on adaptive agents with threshold behavior allocating their resources among two assets. We explore numerically the effect of this diversification as an …
We study the informational efficiency of a market with a single traded asset. The price initially differs from the fundamental value, about which the agents have noisy private information (which is, on average, correct). A fraction of traders revise their price expectations in each period. The price at which the asset …
The agent-based model of stock price dynamics on a directed evolving complex network is suggested and studied by direct simulation. The stationary regime is maintained as a result of the balance between the extremal dynamics, adaptivity of strategic variables and reconnection rules. The inherent structure of node agent…
ARL makes market makers resilient to adversarial conditions.
problem Creating resilient market makers against adversarial attacks.
method Transformed single-agent RL into a zero-sum game between market maker and adversary.
result ARL leads to risk-averse behavior and significant performance improvements.
New AI governance framework tackles risks in finance.
problem Risks from evolving AI models in finance.
method Agent-based framework with modular governance architecture.
result Controls quarantine harmful behavior in real time.
ContestTrade uses competitive teams to improve LLM trading performance.
problem High sensitivity to market noise in LLM-based trading systems.
method Internal competitive mechanism, data and research teams, real-time evaluation.
result Significantly outperforms other systems across various metrics.
We present a simple agent-based model to study the development of a bubble and the consequential crash and investigate how their proximate triggering factor might relate to their fundamental mechanism, and vice versa. Our agents invest according to their opinion on future price movements, which is based on three source…
Contextual bandit framework improves revenue optimization in securities lending market.
problem Optimizing revenue for agent lenders in a dynamic securities lending market.
method Utilized contextual bandit frameworks to address dynamic pricing problems in an e-commerce-like securities lending market.
result Contextual bandit approach consistently outperforms traditional methods by at least 15% in total revenue generated.
Recent results and interpretations are presented for the thermal minority game, concentrating on deriving and justifying the fundamental stochastic differential equation for the microdynamics.
Improved power arbitrage through domain-adapted reinforcement learning.
problem Optimizing profit in the Dutch power market through arbitrage opportunities.
method Dual-agent reinforcement learning with imitation of power traders' behaviors.
result Significant improvement in cumulative profit and loss (P&L) with a three-fold increase.
MRC improves credit assignment in multi-agent LLM systems, achieving high returns and transparency.
problem Lack of principled credit assignment in multi-agent LLM decision systems, vulnerability to regime shifts, and limited transparency.
method Market Regime Council (MRC) computes exact Shapley credits, uses exponentially weighted performance histories, Bayesian adaptive mixture, and regime-dependent multipliers.
result MRC achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.51 and a cumulative return of 440.1% over 1,037 trading days, ranking first on CR, SR, and IR.
New framework predicts cryptocurrency trends by analyzing news and market data.
problem Cryptocurrency market volatility and news sensitivity challenges prediction accuracy.
method Multi-agent system with three innovations: news analysis, fusion mechanism, and coordination architecture.
result Statistically significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods.
AI-Trader benchmarks LLMs in live financial markets, revealing poor trading performance.
problem Challenges in real-time financial decision-making by autonomous agents.
method Fully automated, live evaluation benchmark with minimal human intervention.
result General intelligence does not translate to effective trading, highlighting limitations.
Loyal buyer-seller relationships can arise by design, e.g. when a seller tailors a product to a specific market niche to accomplish the best possible returns, and buyers respond to the dedicated efforts the seller makes to meet their needs. We ask whether it is possible, instead, for loyalty to arise spontaneously, and…
MacroHFT uses memory and context-aware reinforcement learning to improve HFT performance.
problem Overfitting and biased decisions in HFT due to rapid market changes.
method Memory Augmented Context-aware Reinforcement Learning (MacroHFT) that trains multiple sub-agents and a hyper-agent.
result MacroHFT achieves state-of-the-art performance on minute-level trading tasks.
Model shows how traders' interactions can create market patterns.
problem Explaining stylized facts in high-frequency trading markets.
method Agent-based model of limit order book trading with zero-intelligence agents.
result Scale-free connectivity between traders reproduces market patterns, while no interaction does not.
In an adaptive population which models financial markets and distributed control, we consider how the dynamics depends on the diversity of the agents' initial preferences of strategies. When the diversity decreases, more agents tend to adapt their strategies together. This change in the environment results in dynamical…
The paper explores how AI trading agents' similar information representation can cause financial market instability.
problem Systemic instability in AI-dominated financial markets due to similar information representation.
method Structural multi-agent market model with two-layer decision architecture for AI agents.
result Representation homogeneity can lead to systemic instability in financial markets.
LLMs mimic human traders in finance, but not as much as expected.
problem Evaluating how LLMs behave in financial markets.
method Adapted experimental design with LLMs and human traders, analyzed in single and mixed model settings.
result LLMs tend to price assets near their fundamental value, but not as much as humans, and show less trading strategy variance.
Study examines how traders with asymmetric information and adaptive learning strategies affect market efficiency.
problem Effect of traders' strategic behavior on market efficiency and informational asymmetry.
method Examines a market with boundedly rational, asymmetrically informed traders using multiarmed bandit algorithms.
result Strategically acting traders can lead to more efficient markets than purely competitive ones under certain conditions.