A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper explores how risk-averse individuals' willingness to pay for insurance varies with risk probability.
Study finds farmers are willing to pay higher premiums for higher coverage in agricultural insurance.
Bayesian model estimates feature values of premium products.
Meta-analysis finds people value insurance for low-probability risks more than expected.
A new model uses neural networks for consistent discrete choice analysis.
Study finds consumers are more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
We explore the effects of social influence in a simple market model in which a large number of agents face a binary choice: 'to buy/not to buy' a single unit of a product at a price posted by a single seller (the monopoly case). We consider the case of 'positive externalities': an agent is more willing to buy if the ot…
New loss functions optimize pricing policies using transaction data, ensuring expected revenue guarantees.
New framework improves cost-benefit analysis of policies.
The high pay packages of U.S. CEOs have raised serious concerns about what would constitute a fair pay.
We determine Kelly criterion for a game with variable pay-off. The Kelly fraction satisfies a fundamental integral equation and is smaller than the classical Kelly fraction for the same game with the constant average pay-off.
We study dynamic allocation problems for discrete time multi-armed bandits under uncertainty, based on the the theory of nonlinear expectations. We show that, under strong independence of the bandits and with some relaxation in the definition of optimality, a Gittins allocation index gives optimal choices. This involve…
The study explores machine learning for predicting customer propensity-to-pay uncertainty.
This paper analyzes consumer choices over lunchtime restaurants using data from a sample of several thousand anonymous mobile phone users in the San Francisco Bay Area. The data is used to identify users' approximate typical morning location, as well as their choices of lunchtime restaurants. We build a model where res…
Study finds billing codes at IPO boost digital health companies' financial performance.
This study measures price risk aversion using indirect utility functions in a lab experiment.
We have successfully implemented the "Learn to Pay Attention" model of attention mechanism in convolutional neural networks, and have replicated the results of the original paper in the categories of image classification and fine-grained recognition.
New risk theory for 'Pay-for-Performance' models.
In the context of a Black-Scholes economy and with a no-arbitrage argument, we derive arbitrarily accurate lower and upper bounds for the value of European options on a stock paying a discrete dividend. Setting the option price error below the smallest monetary unity, both bounds coincide, and we obtain the exact value…
A dynamic agent model is introduced with an annual random wealth multiplicative process followed by taxes paid according to a linear wealth-dependent tax rate. If poor agents pay higher tax rates than rich agents, eventually all wealth becomes concentrated in the hands of a single agent. By contrast, if poor agents are…
A new method combines MCMC results to avoid failures in parallel computing.
Investors pay for additional asset information based on utility maximization.
We solve the pricing problem for perpetual American puts and calls on dividend-paying assets. The dependence of a dividend process on the underlying stochastic factor is fairly general: any non-decreasing function is admissible. The stochastic factor follows a Levy process. This specification allows us to consider asse…
Investigates optimal pension policies in PAYG systems with forward utility and ageing population.
We prove a version of First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under transaction costs for discrete-time markets with dividend-paying securities. Specifically, we show that the no-arbitrage condition under the efficient friction assumption is equivalent to the existence of a risk-neutral measure. We derive dual repre…
This paper optimizes ad bids and daily budgets for multiple campaigns in pay-per-click advertising.
Consider two insurance companies (or two branches of the same company) that receive premiums at different rates and then split the amount they pay in fixed proportions for each claim (for simplicity we assume that they are equal). We model the occurrence of claims according to a Poisson process. The ruin is achieved wh…
Realised pay-offs for discretisation-invariant swaps are those which satisfy a restricted `aggregation property' of Neuberger [2012] for twice continuously differentiable deterministic functions of a multivariate martingale. They are initially characterised as solutions to a second-order system of PDEs, then those pay-…
A new method for imputing missing data using graphical models.
NetDP predicts loan defaults using network data, addressing cold-start issues.
Every time drivers take to the road, and with each mile that they drive, exposes themselves and others to the risk of an accident. Insurance premiums are only weakly linked to mileage, however, and have lump-sum characteristics largely. The result is too much driving, and too many accidents. In this paper, we introduce…
This paper considers optimal control problem of a large insurance company under a fixed insolvency probability. The company controls proportional reinsurance rate, dividend pay-outs and investing process to maximize the expected present value of the dividend pay-outs until the time of bankruptcy. This paper aims at des…
This research presents an analysis of the demographic risk related to future membership patterns in pension funds with restricted entrance, financed under a pay-as-you-go scheme. The paper, therefore, proposes a stochastic model for investigating the behaviour of the demographic variable "new entrants" and the influenc…
Researchers derive a new equation for valuing American options.
Based on a point of view that solvency and security are first, this paper considers regular-singular stochastic optimal control problem of a large insurance company facing positive transaction cost asked by reinsurer under solvency constraint. The company controls proportional reinsurance and dividend pay-out policy to…
We propose an analytically tractable variation of the minority game in which rational agents use probabilistic strategies. In our model, agents choose between two alternatives repeatedly, and those who are in the minority get a pay-off 1, others zero. The agents optimize the expectation value of their discounted fu…
This paper takes a deep learning approach to understand consumer credit risk when e-commerce platforms issue unsecured credit to finance customers' purchase. The "NeuCredit" model can capture both serial dependences in multi-dimensional time series data when event frequencies in each dimension differ. It also captures …
Brokerage algorithm learns from context to minimize trading regret.
We explore trust in a relatively new area of data science: Automated Machine Learning (AutoML). In AutoML, AI methods are used to generate and optimize machine learning models by automatically engineering features, selecting models, and optimizing hyperparameters. In this paper, we seek to understand what kinds of info…
This paper investigates dividend optimization of an insurance corporation under a more realistic model which takes into consideration refinancing or capital injections. The model follows the compound Poisson framework with credit interest for positive reserve, and debit interest for negative reserve. Ruin occurs when t…
A simple formula approximates AUM fees' cumulative costs.
We analyze the errors arising from discrete readjustment of the hedging portfolio when hedging options in exponential Levy models, and establish the rate at which the expected squared error goes to zero when the readjustment frequency increases. We compare the quadratic hedging strategy with the common market practice …
The multi-armed restless bandit problem is studied in the case where the pay-off distributions are stationary -mixing. This version of the problem provides a more realistic model for most real-world applications, but cannot be optimally solved in practice, since it is known to be PSPACE-hard. The objective of …
Language Models (LMs) are important components in several Natural Language Processing systems. Recurrent Neural Network LMs composed of LSTM units, especially those augmented with an external memory, have achieved state-of-the-art results. However, these models still struggle to process long sequences which are more li…
Variance reduction has emerged in recent years as a strong competitor to stochastic gradient descent in non-convex problems, providing the first algorithms to improve upon the converge rate of stochastic gradient descent for finding first-order critical points. However, variance reduction techniques typically require c…
This paper improves bidding price prediction for ancillary services markets, boosting revenues.
This paper discusses the valuation of credit default swaps, where default is announced when the reference asset price has gone below certain level from the last record maximum, also known as the high-water mark or drawdown. We assume that the protection buyer pays premium at fixed rate when the asset price is above a p…
We study a singular stochastic control problem faced by the owner of an insurance company that dynamically pays dividends and raises capital in the presence of the restriction that the surplus process must be above a given dividend payout barrier in order for dividend payments to be allowed. Bankruptcy occurs if the su…