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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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19 results for Whales

Paper forecasts extreme Bitcoin volatility spikes using whale transactions and CryptoQuant data.

problem Forecasting extreme volatility spikes in Bitcoin market.
method Proposes Synthesizer Transformer model for forecasting.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art models in forecasting extreme volatility spikes.

Modeling vessel speed to balance efficiency and environmental risks in Arctic shipping.

problem Balancing vessel speed with environmental and ecological risks in Arctic shipping.
method Inverse control constrained optimization framework with risk parameters estimated from AIS data.
result Distinct decision-making patterns across vessel types and navigational statuses, with varying sensitivity to ice and whale risks.

Bitcoin reacts positively to USDT minting but not burning, showing state-dependence.

problem Understanding Bitcoin's response to Tether's supply changes.
method Analyzing Bitcoin's intraday price movements in response to USDT minting and burning events.
result Bitcoin's response to USDT minting events declines after 60 minutes and is influenced by investor sentiment and public announcements.

Method combines latent space exploration and causal inference to interpret unknown data.

problem Interpreting unknown communication system of sperm whales.
method Causal disentanglement with extreme values (CDEV) combining latent variable manipulation and causal inference.
result Sperm whales encode information using click number, timing regularity, and audio properties.

This paper presents a spermwhale' localization architecture using jointly a bag-of-features (BoF) approach and machine learning framework. BoF methods are known, especially in computer vision, to produce from a collection of local features a global representation invariant to principal signal transformations. Our idea …

2013-06-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Robust X-Learner improves HTE estimation in imbalanced and heavy-tailed data.

problem Estimating HTE in imbalanced and heavy-tailed data.
method Integrates γ-divergence objective and Proxy Hessian strategy into gradient boosting.
result Reduces PEHE metric by 98.6% in semi-synthetic Criteo Uplift dataset.

Bayesian X-Learner calibrates uncertainty and robustness for CATE estimation under heavy-tailed data.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with calibrated uncertainty and robustness to heavy-tailed outcomes.
method Bayesian X-Learner using cross-fitted doubly robust pseudo-outcomes and MCMC for a full posterior over CATE.
result Bayesian X-Learner achieves robust and calibrated CATE estimation on real and contaminated data.

Dictionary based classifiers are a family of algorithms for time series classification (TSC), that focus on capturing the frequency of pattern occurrences in a time series. The ensemble based Bag of Symbolic Fourier Approximation Symbols (BOSS) was found to be a top performing TSC algorithm in a recent evaluation, as w…

2019-07-26abs ↗pdf ↗

LLM sandbox and persona dynamics create unethical reality gaps that shift risk to users.

problem Ethical issues arise from LLMs generating reality gaps that shift risk to uninformed users.
method Analyzes the ethical implications of LLM sandbox and persona dynamics, comparing them to financial regulation and compliance.
result Active generation of reality gaps is unethical as it shifts epistemic risk to users.

This study examines non-retail trading on Polymarket, revealing unique behavior patterns and structural limitations.

problem Lack of address-level quote-lifecycle data in Polymarket prediction markets.
method Empirical analysis of 13 million order-filled events using DBSCAN clustering on a six-feature fill-side vector.
result Non-retail behavior is uni-modal, contradicting previous archetypal hypotheses.