A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Privacy subsidy found in market trading with noisy direction signals.
The \emph{World Trade Web} (WTW), the network defined by the international import/export trade relationships, has been recently shown to display some important topological properties which are tightly related to the Gross Domestic Product of world countries. While our previous analysis focused on the static, undirected…
The study forecasts ETF return direction using machine learning models.
The study extracts market direction from transaction data.
AI detects 38% NFT trades likely manipulated, improving on indirect methods.
Order-flow entropy predicts price magnitude without directionality.
A new trading system learns to minimize risk and maximize returns in real markets.
Unified routing and arbitrage with concave continuation.
Reviews six finance topics, including 'radical complexity'.
We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade imbalances of the European countries. These measures are the network (or indire…
The study uses LSTM and random forests to forecast stock price movements for intraday trading.
Reinforcement learning crypto agent achieves high returns on Bitcoin derivatives.
Trading styles affect long-run variance of asset prices, increasing under trend-following and decreasing under mean-reverting.
Paper optimizes trading profits by predicting price direction using ensemble models.
Selective classification improves trading strategies by abstaining from predictions.
Algorithmic trading is well studied in traditional financial markets. However, it has received less attention in centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) attributed the flash crash, one of the most turbulent periods in the history of financial markets that saw the Dow…
Both the scientific community and the popular press have paid much attention to the speed of the Securities Information Processor, the data feed consolidating all trades and quotes across the US stock market. Rather than the speed of the Securities Information Processor, or SIP, we focus here on its accuracy. Relying o…
In this note we study the bilateral merchandise trade flows between 186 countries over the 1948-2005 period using data from the International Monetary Fund. We use Pajek to identify network structure and behavior across thresholds and over time. In particular, we focus on the evolution of trade "islands" in the a world…
A first attempt at obtaining market--directional information from a non--stationary solution of the dynamic equation "future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time" [1] is presented. We demonstrate that the concept of price impact is poorly applicable to market dynamics. Inste…
Study of Polymarket's prediction market microstructure using tick-level order book data.
Crowding is most likely an important factor in the deterioration of strategy performance, the increase of trading costs and the development of systemic risk. We study the imprints of \emph{crowding} on both anonymous market data and a large database of metaorders from institutional investors in the U.S. equity market. …
New model shows negative resilience can improve trading efficiency.
This paper surveys RL methods for quantitative trading.
We use machine learning for designing a medium frequency trading strategy for a portfolio of 5 year and 10 year US Treasury note futures. We formulate this as a classification problem where we predict the weekly direction of movement of the portfolio using features extracted from a deep belief network trained on techni…
The paper validates a classifier for identifying intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.
By studying all the trades and best bids/asks of ultra high frequency snapshots recorded from the order books of a basket of 10 futures assets, we bring qualitative empirical evidence that the impact of a single trade depends on the intertrade time lags. We find that when the trading rate becomes faster, the return var…
The relationship between international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the main features of globalization. In this paper we investigate the effects of FDI on trade from a network perspective, since FDI takes not only direct but also indirect channels from origin to destination countries because of f…
DPA aligns LLMs with multi-objective rewards for diverse user preferences.
Neural nets analyze crypto markets for multi-timeframe trading.
This paper analyzes correlations in patterns of trading of different members of the London Stock Exchange. The collection of strategies associated with a member institution is defined by the sequence of signs of net volume traded by that institution in hour intervals. Using several methods we show that there are signif…
Uses news sentiment scores for direct reinforcement trading in financial markets.
Survey examines LLMs in financial trading.
The study categorizes Korean Exchange member firms into three types and analyzes their trading behavior.
In order to investigate the origin of large price fluctuations, we analyze stock price changes of ten frequently traded NASDAQ stocks in the year 2002. Though the influence of the trading frequency on the aggregate return in a certain time interval is important, it cannot alone explain the heavy tailed distribution of …
It is common wisdom that no nation is an isolated economic island. All nations participate in the global economy and are linked together through trade and finance. Here we analyze international trade network (ITN), being the network of import-export relationships between countries. We show that in each year over the an…
Using the United Nations COMTRADE database we apply the reduced Google matrix (REGOMAX) algorithm to analyze the multiproduct world trade in years 2004-2016. Our approach allows to determine the trade balance sensitivity of a group of countries to a specific product price increase from a specific exporting country taki…
In this paper, the survival function of waiting times between orders and the corresponding trades in a double-auction market is studied both by means of experiments and of empirical data. It turns out that, already at the level of order durations, the survival function cannot be represented by a single exponential, thu…
Trading strategy mimics optimal control with simple heuristic.
Optimal trade execution in a fluctuating market with stochastic liquidity.
A new approach to obtaining market--directional information, based on a non-stationary solution to the dynamic equation "future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time" [1] is presented. In our previous work[2], we established that it is the share execution flow () and…
Analysis shows preference for Chinese yuan in global trade network.
Analyzing real data on international trade covering the time interval 1950-2000, we show that in each year over the analyzed period the network is a typical representative of the ensemble of maximally random weighted networks, whose directed connections (bilateral trade volumes) are only characterized by the product of…
Proposes deep mixture models for probabilistic price movement forecasting in high-frequency trading.
Two machine learning methods detect insider trading from investor activity data.
We study trade-based manipulation of stock prices from the perspective of complex trading networks constructed by using detailed information of trades. A stock trading network consists of nodes and directed links, where every trader is a node and a link is formed from one trader to the other if the former sells shares …
Peru's abundant natural resources and friendly trade policies has made the country a major economic player in both South America and the global community. Consequently, exports are playing an increasingly important role in Peru's national economy. Indeed, growing from 13.1% as of 1994, exports now contribute approximat…
We construct explicitly a bridge process whose distribution, in its own filtration, is the same as the difference of two independent Poisson processes with the same intensity and its time 1 value satisfies a specific constraint. This construction allows us to show the existence of Glosten-Milgrom equilibrium and its as…
We propose a novel approach and an empirical procedure to test direct contagion of growth rate in a trade credit network of firms. Our hypotheses are that the use of trade credit contributes to contagion (from many customers to a single supplier - "many to one" contagion) and amplification (through their interaction wi…