A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Unified framework for tractable inference scenarios in machine learning models.
PNCs balance tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic modeling.
Hybrid model combines continuous and tractable probabilistic models.
New tractable density models from squaring neural networks.
Probabilistic models learned as density estimators can be exploited in representation learning beside being toolboxes used to answer inference queries only. However, how to extract useful representations highly depends on the particular model involved. We argue that tractable inference, i.e. inference that can be compu…
We present a novel tractable generative model that extends Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) and significantly boosts their power. We call it Sum-Product-Quotient Networks (SPQNs), whose core concept is to incorporate conditional distributions into the model by direct computation using quotient nodes, e.g. $P(A|B) = \frac{P(…
Unified tractability conditions for various compositional inference queries.
We call an Ising model tractable when it is possible to compute its partition function value (statistical inference) in polynomial time. The tractability also implies an ability to sample configurations of this model in polynomial time. The notion of tractability extends the basic case of planar zero-field Ising models…
Despite widespread interest and practical use, the theoretical properties of random forests are still not well understood. In this paper we contribute to this understanding in two ways. We present a new theoretically tractable variant of random regression forests and prove that our algorithm is consistent. We also prov…
Normalizing flows can now estimate densities on unknown manifolds.
New model generates data on constrained sets without losing tractability.
Paper introduces md-vtrees for efficient probabilistic and causal inference.
TRAK traces model predictions to training data efficiently.
Casting neural networks in generative frameworks is a highly sought-after endeavor these days. Contemporary methods, such as Generative Adversarial Networks, capture some of the generative capabilities, but not all. In particular, they lack the ability of tractable marginalization, and thus are not suitable for many ta…
New bandit algorithm works without realizability assumption.
Inference in popular nonparametric Bayesian models typically relies on sampling or other approximations. This paper presents a general methodology for constructing novel tractable nonparametric Bayesian methods by applying the kernel trick to inference in a parametric Bayesian model. For example, Gaussian process regre…
In this paper we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on some dynamics parameters, and we show how to calibrate the model using a chosen number of Credit Default Swap (CDS) market quotes. We essentially show how to use structural models with a calibration capability that …
We develop a model for the dynamic evolution of default-free and defaultable interest rates in a LIBOR framework. Utilizing the class of affine processes, this model produces positive LIBOR rates and spreads, while the dynamics are analytically tractable under defaultable forward measures. This leads to explicit formul…
A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and…
The analytical tractability of affine (short rate) models, such as the Vasicek and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models, has made them a popular choice for modelling the dynamics of interest rates. However, in order to account properly for the dynamics of real data, these models need to exhibit time-dependent or even stochast…
Computing expected predictions of discriminative models is a fundamental task in machine learning that appears in many interesting applications such as fairness, handling missing values, and data analysis. Unfortunately, computing expectations of a discriminative model with respect to a probability distribution defined…
This article discuss a class of tractable model in the form of polynomial type.
We discuss the class of "Quadratic Normal Volatility" models, which have drawn much attention in the financial industry due to their analytic tractability and flexibility. We characterize these models as the ones that can be obtained from stopped Brownian motion by a simple transformation and a change of measure that o…
High-risk domains require reliable confidence estimates from predictive models. Deep latent variable models provide these, but suffer from the rigid variational distributions used for tractable inference, which err on the side of overconfidence. We propose Stochastic Quantized Activation Distributions (SQUAD), which im…
The paper explores how to learn models that respect constraints in probabilistic learning.
New model incorporates long-range dependence in mortality rates for better valuation and risk management.
We consider the problem of transforming samples from one continuous source distribution into samples from another target distribution. We demonstrate with optimal transport theory that when the source distribution can be easily sampled from and the target distribution is log-concave, this can be tractably solved with c…
Despite the fundamental nature of the inhomogeneous Poisson process in the theory and application of stochastic processes, and its attractive generalizations (e.g. Cox process), few tractable nonparametric modeling approaches of intensity functions exist, especially when observed points lie in a high-dimensional space.…
Affine term structure models have gained significant attention in the finance literature, mainly due to their analytical tractability and statistical flexibility. The aim of this article is to present both theoretical foundations as well as empirical aspects of the affine model class. Starting from the original one-fac…
Develops a computationally tractable differentially private mean estimator called the balloon mean.
Group-based sparsity models are proven instrumental in linear regression problems for recovering signals from much fewer measurements than standard compressive sensing. The main promise of these models is the recovery of "interpretable" signals through the identification of their constituent groups. In this paper, we e…
We introduce RNADE, a new model for joint density estimation of real-valued vectors. Our model calculates the density of a datapoint as the product of one-dimensional conditionals modeled using mixture density networks with shared parameters. RNADE learns a distributed representation of the data, while having a tractab…
There has been significant interest in the use of fully-connected graphical models and deep-structured graphical models for the purpose of structured inference. However, fully-connected and deep-structured graphical models have been largely explored independently, leaving the unification of these two concepts ripe for …
XSPNs combine SPNs and MEVMs for efficient inference in data with repeated parts.
We study the fundamental tradeoffs between statistical accuracy and computational tractability in the analysis of high dimensional heterogeneous data. As examples, we study sparse Gaussian mixture model, mixture of sparse linear regressions, and sparse phase retrieval model. For these models, we exploit an oracle-based…
Tractable model explains market dynamics using Langevin and SUSY QM.
We introduce a Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model that explicitly captures spatial correlations in data using a parameterized spatial kernel and leveraging structure-exploiting algebra on the model covariance matrices for computational tractability. Inference is made tractable through a collapsed variation…
Fixed-parameter tractability of private synthetic data generation
We derive computationally tractable methods to select a small subset of experiment settings from a large pool of given design points. The primary focus is on linear regression models, while the technique extends to generalized linear models and Delta's method (estimating functions of linear regression models) as well. …
Thompson sampling has emerged as an effective heuristic for a broad range of online decision problems. In its basic form, the algorithm requires computing and sampling from a posterior distribution over models, which is tractable only for simple special cases. This paper develops ensemble sampling, which aims to approx…
Study shows tractable generalization in RL is impossible but possible with Strong Proximity.
In this paper we present decomposable priors, a family of priors over structure and parameters of tree belief nets for which Bayesian learning with complete observations is tractable, in the sense that the posterior is also decomposable and can be completely determined analytically in polynomial time. This follows from…
Survey of tractable nonconvex problems using symmetry.
Simplifies inference for simulators with or without tractable likelihoods.
Flow-based generative models (Dinh et al., 2014) are conceptually attractive due to tractability of the exact log-likelihood, tractability of exact latent-variable inference, and parallelizability of both training and synthesis. In this paper we propose Glow, a simple type of generative flow using an invertible 1x1 con…
Many polynomial invariants of knots and links, including the Jones and HOMFLY-PT polynomials, are widely used in practice but #P-hard to compute. It was shown by Makowsky in 2001 that computing the Jones polynomial is fixed-parameter tractable in the treewidth of the link diagram, but the parameterised complexity of th…
TRUST improves structure learning with tractable uncertainty.
The stochastic block model (SBM) is a generative model revealing macroscopic structures in graphs. Bayesian methods are used for (i) cluster assignment inference and (ii) model selection for the number of clusters. In this paper, we study the behavior of Bayesian inference in the SBM in the large sample limit. Combinin…