A new framework for systematic graph neural network data augmentation.
problem Diversity and difficulty in choosing graph neural network data augmentation techniques.
method Comprehensive framework capturing all previous RDAs, formal universality proof, automatic training method.
result Improved state of the art through new RDAs and impartial comparison.
Neuro-symbolic agent learns systematic generalisation from formal instructions.
problem Achieving zero-shot generalisation of formally specified tasks.
method Combines deep reinforcement learning with temporal logic.
result Systematic learning emerges with convolutional layers and abstract operators.
Paper analyzes systematic jump risk around the clock using news narratives.
problem Identifying and managing priced risks in real-time market conditions.
method Combining high-frequency market data with news narratives classified by an LLM.
result Significant heterogeneity in risk premia, with macroeconomic news commanding the largest premium.
Study uses TV news to measure climate risks affecting clean energy firms.
problem Understanding how climate risks impact clean energy firms' financial stability.
method Developed climate risk measures from TV news coverage and analyzed their effects on clean energy firms' risks.
result Increased TV news coverage of climate risks correlates with higher systematic risk and lower idiosyncratic risk for clean energy firms.
Economic factors significantly influence stock returns, as shown by attribution analysis.
problem The influence of economic factors on stock returns.
method Attribution model using five classic factors and new factors like Market Indices, Consumptions, and Oil Prices.
result Stock returns are exposed to economic news and priced based on risk exposure.
In this paper, we measure systematic risk with a new nonparametric factor model, the neural network factor model. The suitable factors for systematic risk can be naturally found by inserting daily returns on a wide range of assets into the bottleneck network. The network-based model does not stick to a probabilistic st…
Paper predicts stock volatility using ESG news, showing deep learning's effectiveness.
problem Predicting stock volatility using ESG news.
method ESG news extraction, news representations, and Bayesian inference of deep learning models.
result Deep learning models predict stock volatility better than traditional methods.
We study the effects of non-systematic and systematic mortality risks on the required initial capital in a pension plan, in the presence of financial risks. We discover that for a pension plan with few members the impact of pooling on the required capital per person is strong, but non-systematic risk diminishes rapidly…
Analyzes news graphs to predict financial market dislocations.
problem Predicting financial market dislocations using news content.
method Extracts entities from news articles, aggregates them into graphs, applies network analysis, and uses sentiment analysis.
result Identifies high entropy in news graphs correlates with financial market dislocations.
The current flood of information in all areas of machine learning research, from computer vision to reinforcement learning, has made it difficult to make aggregate scientific inferences. It can be challenging to distill a myriad of similar papers into a set of useful principles, to determine which new methodologies to …
Detects systematic anomalies in consumer complaints using NLP.
problem Detecting small, frequent anomalies in consumer complaints.
method NLP conversion of narratives, followed by anomaly detection algorithm.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of NLP for detecting systematic anomalies.
New method to derive integrable systems from existing Lax systems.
problem Deriving new integrable systems from existing ones.
method Systematic method of deriving new integrable systems from a given one.
result Examples of new integrable systems derived, including the dispersionless Hirota equation, the general heavenly equation, and the web equations.
Clustering methods based on deep neural networks have proven promising for clustering real-world data because of their high representational power. In this paper, we propose a systematic taxonomy of clustering methods that utilize deep neural networks. We base our taxonomy on a comprehensive review of recent work and v…
This paper studies systematic exploration for reinforcement learning with rich observations and function approximation. We introduce a new model called contextual decision processes, that unifies and generalizes most prior settings. Our first contribution is a complexity measure, the Bellman rank, that we show enables …
Link prediction is a popular research topic in network analysis. In the last few years, new techniques based on graph embedding have emerged as a powerful alternative to heuristics. In this article, we study the problem of systematic biases in the prediction, and show that some methods based on graph embedding offer le…
New algorithm improves asset ranking for better cross-sectional portfolios.
problem Sub-optimal ranking of assets in cross-sectional systematic strategies.
method Learning-to-rank algorithms to enhance portfolio construction.
result Modern machine learning ranking algorithms boost Sharpe Ratios by approximately threefold.
We introduce a novel systematic construction for integrable (3+1)-dimensional dispersionless systems using nonisospectral Lax pairs that involve contact vector fields. In particular, we present new large classes of (3+1)-dimensional integrable dispersionless systems associated to the Lax pairs which are polynomial and …
ChatGPT improves momentum strategies by analyzing news data.
problem Improving risk-adjusted returns in systematic investing.
method Combining LLMs with daily equity returns and news data to predict stock momentum.
result LLM-enhanced momentum strategies outperform benchmarks in Sharpe and Sortino ratios.
The study uses financial events to predict stock market movements.
problem Predicting stock market movements using financial events.
method Combined event extraction method, BERT/ALBERT enhanced event representation, and extended hierarchical attention network.
result Significantly better accuracies and higher simulated returns compared to state-of-the-art models.
New maxfaces with Enneper ends found.
problem Existence of higher-genus maxfaces with specific ends.
method Proved existence through mathematical proof.
result Existence of new maxfaces with Enneper ends.
Machine learning models predict brain age with systematic bias, corrected in this study.
problem Systematic bias in machine learning regression models for brain age prediction.
method General constrained optimization approach to correct bias.
result Our method effectively eliminates the bias from brain age predictions.
NIFTY dataset for financial forecasting models.
problem Improving financial market forecasting with LLMs.
method Two datasets for supervised and reinforcement learning.
result Demonstrates applications in stock price prediction.
Paper tackles division difficulty, proposing new methods to improve accuracy.
problem Division is the most challenging arithmetic operation for both humans and computers.
method Proposes two novel approaches: Neural Reciprocal Unit (NRU) and Neural Multiplicative Reciprocal Unit (NMRU), and improves an existing division module.
result Improves division accuracy from 70.2% to 91.6%.
This short note provides a systematic construction of market models without unbounded profits but with arbitrage opportunities.
CLSVAE repairs systematic errors in images with minimal labeled data.
problem Repairing systematic errors in data, especially in images.
method CLSVAE models inliers as a smaller latent space representation, separating inlier and outlier patterns.
result CLSVAE achieves superior repairs with less than 2% labeled data, outperforming other methods.
The study identifies impactful news articles based on liquidity changes, improving asset return prediction.
problem Evaluating the sentiment of financial news articles for institutional investors.
method Liquidity-driven variables are used to identify impactful news articles, focusing on liquidity mode switches.
result The screened dataset leads to superior performance in short-term asset return prediction.
The paper models and prices cyber insurance risks, distinguishing idiosyncratic, systematic, and systemic risks.
problem Modeling and pricing cyber insurance policies, especially for systemic risks.
method Distinguishes three types of cyber risks and proposes methods for their valuation.
result Complex methods are needed for systemic cyber risks, including risk-neutral valuation and monetary risk measures.
Framework for assessing explainable AI systems.
problem Lack of consensus on explainability properties.
method Survey of literature, development of taxonomy and descriptors.
result Operationalization of the framework in Explainability Fact Sheets.
Interpretability has become an important topic of research as more machine learning (ML) models are deployed and widely used to make important decisions. Most of the current explanation methods provide explanations through feature importance scores, which identify features that are important for each individual input. …
New formulas derived for anomaly cancellation using modular forms and E8 bundles.
problem Anomaly cancellation in odd dimensions.
method Systematic twisting and generalization of SL(2,Z) modular forms to define new forms associated with E8 and E8*E8 bundles.
result Derivation of a new series of anomaly cancellation formulas.
Machine learning models for COVID-19 detection and prognosis from chest images are flawed and unreliable.
problem Developing reliable machine learning models for COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis from chest images.
method Systematic review of machine learning models published in 2020.
result None of the models identified are of clinical use due to methodological flaws and biases.
An important problem in machine learning and statistics is to identify features that causally affect the outcome. This is often impossible to do from purely observational data, and a natural relaxation is to identify features that are correlated with the outcome even conditioned on all other observed features. For exam…
The paper introduces Relative Bias to quantify LLM bias systematically.
problem Quantifying bias in LLMs is challenging due to ambiguity and rapid model emergence.
method Relative Bias framework using Embedding Transformation and LLM-as-a-Judge methodologies.
result The two scoring methods show strong alignment, providing a systematic approach.
A method for profiling systematic uncertainties in SBI using Factorizable Normalizing Flows.
problem Computational cost and limited applicability of current SBI methods for realistic analyses.
method Simulation-Based Inference with Factorizable Normalizing Flows to model systematic variations.
result Efficient profiling of nuisance parameters and multivariate DoI in complex analyses.
Study shows short exposure and systematic risk exposure affect disposition effect asymmetries.
problem Understanding disposition effect in short vs long exposure positions and systematic risk.
method Generalized Odean measures, introduced Value metric, implemented dispositionEffect R package.
result Short positions exhibit weaker disposition effect than long positions under narrow framing, reversing in integrated framing.
Systematic and multifactor risk models are revisited via methods which were already successfully developed in signal processing and in automatic control. The results, which bypass the usual criticisms on those risk modeling, are illustrated by several successful computer experiments.
Gibbs sampling is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling technique that iteratively samples variables from their conditional distributions. There are two common scan orders for the variables: random scan and systematic scan. Due to the benefits of locality in hardware, systematic scan is commonly used, even though most st…
Paper finds new realizable data for maps with three branch points.
problem Existence of rational maps with specific branch points.
method New families of branch data identified through football decomposition method.
result Identifies new realizable branch data and exceptional data.
Paper develops an AI-driven framework for systematic investing.
problem Manual prompts limit model adaptability and data snooping biases.
method Closed-loop system with self-evolving AI, out-of-sample validation, and economic rationale.
result Long-short portfolios on factor signals outperform with Sharpe ratio 3.11 and return 59.53%.
Systematic review of ML models for detecting social media deception.
problem Detecting fake news, spam, and fake accounts on social media.
method 36 studies evaluated using PROBAST tool, identifying biases and limitations.
result Over-reliance on accuracy in imbalanced data settings is a flaw.
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures (standard deviation, VaR and Expected Shortfall) as well as allocation of risk down to…
In this paper we generate and systematically classify all prime planar knotoids with up to 5 crossings. We also extend the existing list of knotoids in S2 and add all knotoids with 6 crossings.
26 different concrete representations of the space of vector valued distributions on a smooth manifold of dimension n are presented systematically, most of them new. In the particular case of representations as module homomorphisms acting on sections of the dual bundle resp. on n-forms, the continuity of these homomorp…
Proposes a new risk model using stable laws to manage company-wide losses.
problem Managing aggregate risks and pricing policies in the presence of systematic risk.
method Develops a modified risk model using multivariate stable distributions to account for various risk phenomena.
result Computes the Tail Conditional Expectation of aggregate risks and corresponding allocations.
Spotlight method finds hidden errors in deep learning models.
problem Systematic errors in deep learning models on rare data subsets.
method Shining a spotlight on hidden layer representations to find poor performance areas.
result Identifies semantically meaningful areas of weakness in various models.
Statistical modeling of nuclear data provides a novel approach to nuclear systematics complementary to established theoretical and phenomenological approaches based on quantum theory. Continuing previous studies in which global statistical modeling is pursued within the general framework of machine learning theory, we …
This paper does not contain any new results, it is just an attempt to present, in a systematic way, one construction which establishes an interesting relationship between some ideas and notions well-known in the theory of integrable systems on Lie algebras and a rather different area of mathematics studying projectivel…
The abstract reviews Markov models in life insurance surplus.
problem Analyzing Markov models in life insurance surplus.
method Systematic organization of models based on technical bases, including non-contractual cashflows.
result Expansion of 'technical basis' and addition of new terms to the surplus.