Paper establishes statistical inference for performative predictions.
problem Dynamic influence of predictions on their targets.
method End-to-end framework for estimation and inference under performativity.
result Established central limit theorem for performative settings.
Approximate Bayesian Computation is widely used in systems biology for inferring parameters in stochastic gene regulatory network models. Its performance hinges critically on the ability to summarize high-dimensional system responses such as time series into a few informative, low-dimensional summary statistics. The qu…
In this study, the effects of eight representation regularization methods are investigated, including two newly developed rank regularizers (RR). The investigation shows that the statistical characteristics of representations such as correlation, sparsity, and rank can be manipulated as intended, during training. Furth…
Method estimates model performance on external samples from limited statistical characteristics.
problem Limited access to multiple datasets due to privacy and commercial restrictions.
method Search for weights that match external statistics and are closest to uniform, using model performance on weighted internal sample as an estimation.
result Estimated external performance is closer to actual performance than internal performance.
New computational lower bounds for clustering and related problems.
problem Statistical-computational gaps in high-dimensional clustering problems.
method Investigation of low-degree polynomials in latent space models to derive lower bounds.
result New and sharper computational lower bounds for clustering, sparse clustering, and biclustering.
A statistical toolbox for analyzing model performance in medical imaging.
problem Analyzing model performance by patient and recording properties, especially in medical imaging.
method Selection of appropriate performance metrics, correction of multiple comparisons, and finding interesting subgroups.
result Enables rigorous assessment of model performance for potential subgroup disparities.
Linear regression models contaminated by Gaussian noise (inlier) and possibly unbounded sparse outliers are common in many signal processing applications. Sparse recovery inspired robust regression (SRIRR) techniques are shown to deliver high quality estimation performance in such regression models. Unfortunately, most…
This research improves model interpretability and uncertainty estimation for deep learning models on non-iid data.
problem Improving interpretability and uncertainty estimation for deep learning models on non-iid data.
method 4 UQ approaches (BNN, SWAG, MC dropout, ensemble) applied to ARMED MEDL models.
result Ensemble approaches, especially with 90% subsampling, provide best performance in prediction and uncertainty estimation.
The study formalizes temporal precision and recall for anomaly detection in sequences.
problem Insufficient understanding of precision and recall in sequential anomaly detection.
method Formalized temporal precision and recall measures, developed time-tolerant confusion matrices, and demonstrated statistical significance.
result Precision and recall may overestimate performance with temporal tolerance.
Nyström KPCA balances computational efficiency and statistical accuracy.
problem Computational burden in large sample situations for kernel methods.
method Theoretical analysis of Nyström approximate kernel principal component analysis (KPCA).
result Nyström approximate KPCA matches statistical performance of non-approximate KPCA while being computationally beneficial.
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) performance predictors tend to base their algorithms purely on historical statistical data. The main problems with this approach is that external factors such as injuries, managerial decisions and other tournament match statistics can never be factored into the final predictions. In this pa…
Consistently checking the statistical significance of experimental results is one of the mandatory methodological steps to address the so-called "reproducibility crisis" in deep reinforcement learning. In this tutorial paper, we explain how the number of random seeds relates to the probabilities of statistical errors. …
Approximate Bayesian computation is an established and popular method for likelihood-free inference with applications in many disciplines. The effectiveness of the method depends critically on the availability of well performing summary statistics. Summary statistic selection relies heavily on domain knowledge and care…
The paper optimizes private data sharing by selecting statistics and using MCMC for Bayesian inference.
problem Optimizing private data sharing by selecting statistics and performing Bayesian inference.
method Promotes Fisher information for statistic selection and proposes MCMC algorithms for inference.
result The Fisher information of the privatized statistic predicts the relative performance of the statistic in Bayesian estimation.
Develops methods for GWAS of high dimensional phenotypes using summary statistics.
problem Lack of methods to model pleiotropy in multi-phenotype GWAS.
method Bayesian inference model using summary statistics, fast computation, and biologically informed priors.
result Demonstrates utility in metabolite GWAS with interpretable pathway-level inference.
Data splitting enhances model performance in overparametrized ridgeless regression.
problem Computational inefficiency in training models with large datasets.
method Data splitting as a regularization technique in overparametrized ridgeless regression.
result Data splitting improves statistical performance and computational complexity.
AdaStop improves statistical testing for Deep RL algorithm comparisons.
problem Statistical reproducibility issues in Deep RL.
method AdaStop, a new statistical test based on multiple group sequential tests.
result AdaStop ensures theoretically sound comparisons of Deep RL algorithms.
New bandit algorithms focus on extreme values, outperforming existing methods.
problem Optimizing decisions based on extreme values rather than expected values.
method Robust statistics-based algorithms with vanishing extremal regret.
result The proposed algorithms achieve superior performance compared to existing methods.
Confidence intervals improve evaluation of binary prediction rules in data mining.
problem Uncertainty in performance measures estimation from finite datasets.
method Asymptotic normal approximations for confidence intervals, with a blurring correction.
result Improved finite sample coverage probabilities and general performance measures inference.
Orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP) is a widely used algorithm for recovering sparse high dimensional vectors in linear regression models. The optimal performance of OMP requires \textit{a priori} knowledge of either the sparsity of regression vector or noise statistics. Both these statistics are rarely known \textit{a p…
Identifying statistical dependence between the features and the label is a fundamental problem in supervised learning. This paper presents a framework for estimating dependence between numerical features and a categorical label using generalized Gini distance, an energy distance in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RK…
It is widely accepted that optimization of medical imaging system performance should be guided by task-based measures of image quality (IQ). Task-based measures of IQ quantify the ability of an observer to perform a specific task such as detection or estimation of a signal (e.g., a tumor). For binary signal detection t…
Deep RL evaluation underestimates uncertainty, leading to misleading conclusions.
problem Statistical uncertainty in deep RL performance evaluations is underestimated, leading to misleading conclusions.
method Advocates for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and proposes performance profiles to account for variability.
result Substantial discrepancies in prior performance comparisons are revealed, highlighting the need for more rigorous evaluation methods.
Enhances machine learning models by preserving data structure, addressing statistical distortions.
problem Statistical distortions in synthetic data generated by Mixup.
method Proposes a generalized mixup method with a flexible weighting scheme to preserve data structure.
result Preserves statistical properties of original data while maintaining model performance.
Bandit algorithms struggle with consistent performance and robustness.
problem Achieving consistent and robust performance in stochastic multi-armed bandit settings.
method Analyzing regret minimization trade-offs and proposing distribution-oblivious algorithms.
result Logarithmic regret is inconsistent and super-logarithmic regret is necessary for consistent learning.
A new method uses neural tangent kernel to efficiently compute MMD statistic.
problem Efficiently computing Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) statistic with low memory and computational complexity.
method Identifies a connection between neural tangent kernel (NTK) and MMD to develop a computationally and memory-efficient approach.
result The proposed NTK-MMD statistic is validated through numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Flexible multi-task learning framework using summary statistics.
problem Data-sharing constraints in healthcare settings.
method Proposes a flexible multi-task learning framework utilizing summary statistics and adaptive parameter selection.
result Systematic non-asymptotic analysis and simulations demonstrate the method's performance.
Paper reproduces a kernel-based scan B-statistic for online change-point detection.
problem Continuous detection of distribution changes in online data streams.
method Efficient kernel-based scan B-statistic for online change-point detection.
result Scan B-statistic outperforms parametric methods in challenging scenarios.
Paper optimizes statistical estimation for randomized smoothing to reduce adversarial robustness certification time.
problem Efficiently estimating robustness of points against adversarial attacks.
method Developed estimation procedures using confidence sequences and randomized Clopper-Pearson intervals.
result Achieved optimal sample complexities and stronger certificates with reduced computational burden.
Unified framework for statistical inference in gradient boosting regression.
problem Challenges in statistical inference and uncertainty quantification for gradient boosting.
method Integrates dropout or parallel training with regularization for CLT in boosting.
result Increasing dropout rate and parallel trees enhances signal recovery and performance.
Despite the development of numerous adaptive optimizers, tuning the learning rate of stochastic gradient methods remains a major roadblock to obtaining good practical performance in machine learning. Rather than changing the learning rate at each iteration, we propose an approach that automates the most common hand-tun…
New approach for distributed learning of Gaussian mixtures.
problem Large datasets distributed across different centers.
method Split-and-conquer approach with MM algorithm.
result New estimator is consistent and retains root-n consistency.
Algorithm optimizes and infers performance online, improving reliability.
problem Balancing optimization and statistical inference in complex systems.
method Online algorithm that provides consistent performance variance and confidence intervals.
result Online consistent estimator for performance variance and asymptotic confidence intervals.
Novel nonparametric method for GLMs improves prediction and inference performance.
problem Improving prediction and inference in GLMs with minimal assumptions.
method Combines binary regression and latent variable formulations, extends parametric versions, introduces new classification statistic.
result Uniformly better prediction and inference performance over parametric formulation, especially with asymmetric data.
Study shows statistical biases can mislead transformer models, impairing their generalization.
problem Statistical biases in transformers affect their ability to generalize.
method Evaluated transformer models on synthetic algorithmic tasks with varying statistical biases.
result Statistical biases lead to overestimation of transformer models' generalization capabilities.
We consider the problem of parametric statistical inference when likelihood computations are prohibitively expensive but sampling from the model is possible. Several so-called likelihood-free methods have been developed to perform inference in the absence of a likelihood function. The popular synthetic likelihood appro…
Clinical electroencephalographic (EEG) data varies significantly depending on a number of operational conditions (e.g., the type and placement of electrodes, the type of electrical grounding used). This investigation explores the statistical differences present in two different referential montages: Linked Ear (LE) and…
Epidemiologists use a variety of statistical algorithms for the early detection of outbreaks. The practical usefulness of such methods highly depends on the trade-off between the detection rate of outbreaks and the chances of raising a false alarm. Recent research has shown that the use of machine learning for the fusi…
Paper uses optimal transport-based statistics for change point detection.
problem Change point detection in multivariate data.
method Soft rank energy and entropically regularized optimal transport.
result Soft rank energy performs better in real datasets with strong continuity and convergence properties.
Neural networks estimate statistical divergences with performance guarantees.
problem Estimating statistical divergences with theoretical performance guarantees.
method Parametrizing empirical variational form by a neural network and optimizing over parameter space.
result Established non-asymptotic absolute error bounds for neural estimators of four f-divergences. Improved likelihood-free inference by localizing and refining low-dimensional approximations.
problem Poor performance of common likelihood-free methods in high-dimensional models.
method Localisation followed by refinement of low-dimensional summaries.
result Improved accuracy in marginal posteriors through localized and refined approximations.
Study compares forecasting methods for logistics time series.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy in logistics.
method Compared statistical and machine learning methods on simulated time series.
result Statistical methods outperformed machine learning in one-step forecasts.
Recent work in signal propagation theory has shown that dropout limits the depth to which information can propagate through a neural network. In this paper, we investigate the effect of initialisation on training speed and generalisation for ReLU networks within this depth limit. We ask the following research question:…
Characterizes optimal reconstruction error in high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures.
problem Optimizing reconstruction error in high-dimensional sparse Gaussian mixtures.
method Exact asymptotic characterization using state evolution of AMP algorithm.
result Identification of statistical-to-computational gap between AMP and information-theoretic threshold.
FNNs can be made more interpretable with statistical methods.
problem FNNs lack interpretability and are often used as black-box models.
method Supplement FNNs with statistical inference and covariate-effect visualizations.
result FNNs can be made more like traditional statistical models.
Improved deep learning performance in financial markets by using rank space.
problem High volatility and low signal-to-noise ratio in equity market dynamics.
method Transformed equity market data from name space to rank space, enabling better learning by DNNs.
result DNNs achieve superior performance in statistical arbitrage in rank space compared to name space.
The paper analyzes LETF option markets using moneyness scaling to find statistical arbitrage opportunities.
problem Statistical discrepancies between levered and unlevered ETF option implied volatility smiles.
method Bootstrap uniform confidence bands, dynamic semiparametric factor model, moneyness scaling, Heston stochastic volatility.
result Trading opportunities exist on LETF market, and a statistical arbitrage strategy generates positive returns.
This paper provides performance guarantees for neural estimation of statistical distances.
problem Developing performance guarantees for neural estimation of statistical distances.
method Non-asymptotic error bounds using function approximation theorems and empirical process theory.
result Established a fundamental tradeoff between approximation and estimation errors in neural estimation of statistical distances.