A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study finds stock markets follow nonextensive statistical mechanics.
Using the tools developed for statistical physics, we simultaneously analyze statistical properties of the Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange indices. In spite of the small number of data used in the analysis, the result shows the universal behavior of complex systems previously found in the leading stock indices.…
Novel Orlicz regrets consistently bound environmental variable statistics.
New blockchain metrics improve cryptocurrency trading and prediction.
Proposes a method to partition univariate data into unimodal subsets.
In this paper we study automatically recognized trends and investigate their statistics. To do that we introduce the notion of a wavelength for time series via cross correlation and use this wavelength to calibrate the 1-2-3 trend indicator of Maier-Paape [Automatic One Two Three, Quantitative Finance, 2013] to automat…
Study shows statistical biases can mislead transformer models, impairing their generalization.
Statistical test rejects market efficiency using entropy from price returns.
Mapping the economy to the some statistical physics models we get strong indications that, in contrary to the pure stock market, the stock market with derivatives could not self-regulate.
The paper examines the stability of binary choice models using Gini index and scoring indicators.
We construct a statistical indicator for the detection of short-term asset price bubbles based on the information content of bid and ask market quotes for plain vanilla put and call options. Our construction makes use of the martingale theory of asset price bubbles and the fact that such scenarios where the price for a…
We report statistical regularities of the opening and closing auctions of French equities, focusing on the diffusive properties of the indicative auction price. Two mechanisms are at play as the auction end time nears: the typical price change magnitude decreases, favoring underdiffusion, while the rate of these events…
The paper extends sequences while preserving statistical properties using a mixture model.
Financial market prediction on the basis of online sentiment tracking has drawn a lot of attention recently. However, most results in this emerging domain rely on a unique, particular combination of data sets and sentiment tracking tools. This makes it difficult to disambiguate measurement and instrument effects from f…
This paper introduces online algorithms to estimate robust geometric median in large data streams.
Enhanced trend-following strategy using network momentum for commodity futures.
High dimensional structured data such as text and images is often poorly understood and misrepresented in statistical modeling. The standard histogram representation suffers from high variance and performs poorly in general. We explore novel connections between statistical translation, heat kernels on manifolds and gra…
In this paper the correlation between education, research and macroeconomic strength of countries at a global scale is analyzed on the basis of statistical data published by the UNIDO and OECD. It uses sets of composite indicators describing the economical performance and competitiveness as well as those relevant for h…
The aim of this paper is to compare statistical properties of stock price indices in periods of booms with those in periods of stagnations. We use the daily data of the four stock price indices in the major stock markets in the world: (i) the Nikkei 225 index (Nikkei 225) from January 4, 1975 to August 18, 2004, of (ii…
A very simple interpretation of matrix completion problem is introduced based on statistical models. Combined with the well-known results from missing data analysis, such interpretation indicates that matrix completion is still a valid and principled estimation procedure even without the missing completely at random (M…
We have developed a statistical technique to test the model assumption of binary regime switching extension of the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model by proposing a new discriminating statistics. Given a time series data, we have identified an admissible class of the regime switching candidate models for the statist…
This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be…
LIME method provides stability indices to ensure reliable explanations for machine learning models.
Study examines local extrema and crossing statistics in financial markets.
The complex, time-dependent statistical structures observed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on a typical trading day are modeled with Lorentzian functions. The resonant-like structures are characterized by the values of the basic ratio: the average lifetime of the individual states associated with a given structura…
Understanding the causes of crime is a longstanding issue in researcher's agenda. While it is a hard task to extract causality from data, several linear models have been proposed to predict crime through the existing correlations between crime and urban metrics. However, because of non-Gaussian distributions and multic…
Statistical physics of complex systems exploits network theory not only to model, but also to effectively extract information from many dynamical real-world systems. A pivotal case of study is given by financial systems: market prediction represents an unsolved scientific challenge yet with crucial implications for soc…
Symmetry analysis of financial trends returns reveals bi-modality and multi-scale behavior.
Based on 1-minute price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly-emerging Bitcoin (BTC) market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst exponents and multiscaling effects. The findings are compared to the stylized facts …
In this study, the effects of eight representation regularization methods are investigated, including two newly developed rank regularizers (RR). The investigation shows that the statistical characteristics of representations such as correlation, sparsity, and rank can be manipulated as intended, during training. Furth…
In this paper, I discuss a method to tackle the issues arising from the small data-sets available to data-scientists when building price predictive algorithms that use monthly/quarterly macro-financial indicators. I approach this by training separate classifiers on the equivalent dataset from a range of countries. Usin…
QTMRL uses RL with multi-indicators to improve trading adaptability.
The study uses stock market indicators to forecast COVID-19 cases.
New statistical measures assess group separability in low-dimensional geometrical spaces.
Orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP) is a widely used algorithm for recovering sparse high dimensional vectors in linear regression models. The optimal performance of OMP requires \textit{a priori} knowledge of either the sparsity of regression vector or noise statistics. Both these statistics are rarely known \textit{a p…
Radiomics approach improves cardiac CVD diagnosis from cine-MRI.
The combination of the network theoretic approach with recently available abundant economic data leads to the development of novel analytic and computational tools for modelling and forecasting key economic indicators. The main idea is to introduce a topological component into the analysis, taking into account consiste…
Paper introduces efficient methods for estimating cross-partial derivatives and sensitivity indices.
Study analyzes stock market dynamics using Tsallis statistics and GHE, revealing pre-bubble and post-bubble market characteristics.
Stock markets are complex systems exhibiting collective phenomena and particular features such as synchronization, fluctuations distributed as power-laws, non-random structures and similarity to neural networks. Such specific properties suggest that markets operate at a very special point. Financial markets are believe…
Study finds intrinsic multifractality in maize and barley spot markets, but not in wheat and rice.
A statistical analysis of financial, economic, and demographic indicators performed by the authors demonstrates (1) that the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian Trap yet; (2) that this countries are not likely to follow the "North African path" and to achieve this…
The Yukawa term in statistical mechanics quantifies information generation.
The cluster analysis methods are used in order to perform a comparative study of 15 EU countries in relation with the fluctuations of some basic macroeconomic indicators. The statistical distances between countries are calculated for various moving time windows, and the time variation of the mean statistical distance i…
Testing symmetry of a probability distribution is a common question arising from applications in several fields. Particularly, in the study of observables used in the analysis of stock market index variations, the question of symmetry has not been fully investigated by means of statistical procedures. In this work a di…
Aiming at quantifying and evaluating the regional commercial environment along with the level of economic development among cities in mainland China, the concept of China City Commercial Environment Credit Index(CEI) was first introduced and established in 2010. In this manuscript, a historical review and detailed intr…
Testing two potentially multivariate variables for statistical dependence on the basis finite samples is a fundamental statistical challenge. Here we explore a family of tests that adapt to the complexity of the relationship between the variables, promising robust power across scenarios. Building on the distance correl…
Introduces BCVI, a Bayesian cluster validity index for better cluster selection.