This paper estimates VaR for corn and soybean markets using jump processes.
problem Quantifying potential losses in commodity portfolios under market conditions.
method Modeling VaR for a diversified portfolio of corn and soybean positions with standard Brownian motions and jump processes.
result Compared VaR values in markets with and without jumps, providing insights for risk management.
We develop a Vector Quantized Spectral Clustering (VQSC) algorithm that is a combination of Spectral Clustering (SC) and Vector Quantization (VQ) sampling for grouping Soybean genomes. The inspiration here is to use SC for its accuracy and VQ to make the algorithm computationally cheap (the complexity of SC is cubic in…
Study reveals dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets.
problem Exploring interdependence between Peanut and other agricultural commodities in Chinese futures market.
method Constructed multivariate linear regression models and used VAR and DCC-EGARCH models for dynamic relationships. Applied MLP, CNN, and LSTM neural networks for price prediction.
result Significant dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets through DCC-EGARCH, limited influence from other futures markets through VAR model.
This paper proposes a novel selective autoencoder approach within the framework of deep convolutional networks. The crux of the idea is to train a deep convolutional autoencoder to suppress undesired parts of an image frame while allowing the desired parts resulting in efficient object detection. The efficacy of the fr…
Study shows post-COVID commodity futures returns and volatility changed for different products.
problem Analyzing how the pandemic affected Chinese commodity futures markets.
method Empirical analysis of commodity futures returns and cointegration before and after the pandemic.
result Post-COVID, some commodity futures returns increased significantly, while others saw higher volatility.
Study measures risk spillovers between US and China's agricultural futures markets.
problem Interconnectedness and risk transmission in agricultural futures markets.
method TVP-VAR-DY model with quantile method.
result CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat are primary risk transmitters; DCE corn and soybean are main receivers.
Eradicating hunger and malnutrition is a key development goal of the 21st century. We address the problem of optimally identifying seed varieties to reliably increase crop yield within a risk-sensitive decision-making framework. Specifically, we introduce a novel hierarchical machine learning mechanism for predicting c…
New algorithm improves plant breeding by clustering soybean genotypes more accurately and efficiently.
problem Low accuracy and high computational complexity in clustering plant genotypes.
method Spectral Clustering with Pivotal Sampling for phenotypic data.
result Our algorithm achieves substantially more accuracy than existing methods.
Availability of an explainable deep learning model that can be applied to practical real world scenarios and in turn, can consistently, rapidly and accurately identify specific and minute traits in applicable fields of biological sciences, is scarce. Here we consider one such real world example viz., accurate identific…
Deep learning predicts crop yield integrating genotype and weather data.
problem Improving crop yield prediction for diverse climates.
method Long Short Term Memory - Recurrent Neural Network model with temporal attention mechanism.
result Deep learning models outperform traditional methods for yield prediction.
Recent automated crop mapping via supervised learning-based methods have demonstrated unprecedented improvement over classical techniques. However, most crop mapping studies are limited to same-year crop mapping in which the present year's labeled data is used to predict the same year's crop map. Classification accurac…
Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value …
Study examines spillovers between BRICS and U.S. staple grain futures markets.
problem Contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects in BRICS staple grain futures markets and their linkages with U.S. markets.
method Examines contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects using econometric models.
result Contemporaneous spillovers dominate, and net spillovers are driven by lagged connectedness. Systemic risk is lower in intra-BRICS markets compared to those including the U.S.
Functional PLS improves prediction and inference for scalar responses from functional predictors.
problem Estimating scalar responses from functional predictors in an ill-posed inverse problem.
method Functional partial least squares (PLS) estimator with adaptive early stopping and new tests.
result PLS attains nearly minimax-optimal convergence rates and detects local alternatives.
WeatherFormer learns robust weather features from small datasets.
problem Modeling complex weather dynamics from limited data.
method Pretrained transformer encoder on large satellite dataset, with spatiotemporal encoding.
result State-of-the-art performance in county-level soybean yield prediction and influenza forecasting.
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model for commodities that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. Conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined are given, and five different specifications of the seasonality pattern are proposed. We calcula…
For the first time, we apply the wavelet coherence methodology on biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) and a wide range of related commodities (gasoline, diesel, crude oil, corn, wheat, soybeans, sugarcane and rapeseed oil). This way, we are able to investigate dynamics of correlations in time and across scales (frequencie…
The paper classifies U.S. crop types using hyperspectral satellite imagery.
problem Classifying crop types from hyperspectral satellite imagery.
method Gaussian Bayesian models and neural networks applied to NASA data.
result Bayesian methods outperform standard LDA and QDA.
Study examines grain futures connectedness during Russia-Ukraine conflict.
problem Quantile return connectedness of grain futures markets during geopolitical instability.
method Dynamic quantile VAR combined with frequency-domain decomposition.
result Heterogeneous spillovers across quantiles, with strong transmitters and persistent receivers.
Study analyzes climate impact on agricultural prices, offering insurance solutions.
problem Financial risk from climate-induced agricultural price volatility.
method Historical and future climate projections, EGARCH and SARIMAX models, Black-Scholes framework.
result Improved agricultural risk modeling and insurance mechanisms.
FlowSelect uses normalizing flows to control FDR in feature selection.
problem Controlled feature selection with knockoffs often fails to control false discovery rate (FDR).
method FlowSelect uses normalizing flows for accurate feature modeling and a novel MCMC-based p-value calculation to enforce knockoff properties.
result FlowSelect consistently controls FDR and demonstrates greater power compared to competing methods.
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
problem Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
method Analytical framework for tail dependence, Copula-CoVaR method, ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model.
result The outbreak of the conflict intensified risks in the wheat market the most and showed significant asymmetries in extreme risk spillovers.
Study impacts of feeding cost risk on aquaculture valuation and decision making.
problem Impact of stochastic feeding costs on aquaculture valuation and decision making.
method Using Schwartz-2-factor model and deep neural networks to infer decision boundary.
result Accounting for stochastic feeding costs leads to superior performance in decision rules.
Crop yield prediction is extremely challenging due to its dependence on multiple factors such as crop genotype, environmental factors, management practices, and their interactions. This paper presents a deep learning framework using convolutional neural networks (CNN) and recurrent neural networks (RNN) for crop yield …
Study finds long-range dependence in financial markets, but deep generative models struggle to replicate it.
problem Long-range dependence in financial markets and challenges of deep generative models.
method Empirical analysis of financial data from three sectors, including LRD through various statistical methods and deep learning models.
result Deep generative models can reproduce stylized features but fail to capture long-range dependence structures.
Study models weather index insurance pricing by insurers and farmers, finding flexible pricing kernels boost profits.
problem Monopoly pricing of weather index insurance with risk and flexibility considerations.
method Bowley-type sequential game with insurer and farmer, using neural networks for farmer's payoff.
result Flexible pricing kernels increase insurer profits closer to indemnity insurance levels.