A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
RL controls small soccer robots in a real league, beating human-designed policies.
In this work we present STEVE - Soccer TEam VEctors, a principled approach for learning real valued vectors for soccer teams where similar teams are close to each other in the resulting vector space. STEVE only relies on freely available information about the matches teams played in the past. These vectors can serve as…
Injuries have a great impact on professional soccer, due to their large influence on team performance and the considerable costs of rehabilitation for players. Existing studies in the literature provide just a preliminary understanding of which factors mostly affect injury risk, while an evaluation of the potential of …
Framework analyzes physical metrics in soccer to link performance with value.
Predicts next actions in soccer possessions using path signatures.
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become important tools to enhance fan experience, to evaluate in-game decision-making,…
SoccerCPD detects tactical changes in soccer matches using spatiotemporal tracking data.
Study predicts soccer player market values using machine learning and SHAP for interpretability.
Study uses complex networks and machine learning to predict soccer match outcomes.
We propose a reinforcement learning solution to the \emph{soccer dribbling task}, a scenario in which a soccer agent has to go from the beginning to the end of a region keeping possession of the ball, as an adversary attempts to gain possession. While the adversary uses a stationary policy, the dribbler learns the best…
The availability of massive data about sports activities offers nowadays the opportunity to quantify the relation between performance and success. In this study, we analyze more than 6,000 games and 10 million events in six European leagues and investigate this relation in soccer competitions. We discover that a team's…
Assessing the impact of the individual actions performed by soccer players during games is a crucial aspect of the player recruitment process. Unfortunately, most traditional metrics fall short in addressing this task as they either focus on rare actions like shots and goals alone or fail to account for the context in …
This paper introduces glocal explanations for expected goal models in soccer.
We propose an original model for inferring team strengths using a Markov Random Field, which can be used to generate historical estimates of the offensive and defensive strengths of a team over time. This model was designed to be applied to sports such as soccer or hockey, in which contest outcomes take value in a limi…
Quantitative analysis of soccer players' passing ability focuses on descriptive statistics without considering the players' real contribution to the passing and ball possession strategy of their team. Which player is able to help the build-up of an attack, or to maintain the possession of the ball? We introduce a novel…
In this paper, we introduce the Fairness GAN, an approach for generating a dataset that is plausibly similar to a given multimedia dataset, but is more fair with respect to protected attributes in allocative decision making. We propose a novel auxiliary classifier GAN that strives for demographic parity or equality of …
Technology offers new ways to measure the locations of the players and of the ball in sports. This translates to the trajectories the ball takes on the field as a result of the tactics the team applies. The challenge professionals in soccer are facing is to take the reverse path: given the trajectories of the ball is i…
We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry extensions are estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood, or an appropriately penalize…
Investigates sports betting strategies using modern portfolio theory and Kelly criterion.
Paper presents a method to efficiently learn ordered representations of multi-agent data.
With the emergence of onboard vision processing for areas such as the internet of things (IoT), edge computing and autonomous robots, there is increasing demand for computationally efficient convolutional neural network (CNN) models to perform real-time object detection on resource constraints hardware devices. Tiny-YO…
Twitter has been proven to be a notable source for predictive modelling on various domains such as the stock market, the dissemination of diseases or sports outcomes. However, such a study has not been conducted in football (soccer) so far. The purpose of this research was to study whether data mined from Twitter can b…
Fewer obstructions for small graphs in knotless embedding.
We prove that every spherical football (also known as a spherical soccer ball) is a branched cover, branched only in the vertices, of the standard football made up of 12 pentagons and 20 hexagons. We also give examples showing that the corresponding result is not true for footballs of higher genera. Moreover, we classi…
Unified Bayesian model for multi-modal, small sample size biomedical data classification.
The paper investigates why GNNs struggle to generalize from small to large graphs.
Paper presents Transfer Portal model for accurate player performance predictions.
Study identifies key metrics for small and large tick assets in LOBs.
We present a method that learns to integrate temporal information, from a learned dynamics model, with ambiguous visual information, from a learned vision model, in the context of interacting agents. Our method is based on a graph-structured variational recurrent neural network (Graph-VRNN), which is trained end-to-end…
AutoStan improves Bayesian models via predictive feedback.
Proposes a new signal model for high-dimensional, small-sample-size data.
Regularized EM algorithm improves clustering performance with small sample sizes.
Simple private estimators for mean and covariance outperform existing methods.
New SDP algorithm recovers large clusters in SBM with small clusters of any size.
Unbiased method for Bayesian posterior means using kinetic Langevin dynamics.
Study evaluates synthetic data augmentation for small datasets, highlighting inconsistencies in traditional metrics.
SPREV simplifies visualization of complex labeled datasets.
A new test optimizes detecting small communities in large networks.
We find the wealth distribution for an economic agent in the financial market, in analogy with standard derivation of generaliz Boltzman (Tsallis) factor in statistical mechanics. In this respect, Tsallis entropic index separates two different regimes, the large and small size market. The Pareto like wealth distributio…
SFCNeXt estimates brain age from small MRI datasets.
We propose a novel method to train deep convolutional neural networks which learn from multiple data sets of varying input sizes through weight sharing. This is an advantage in chemometrics where individual measurements represent exact chemical compounds and thus signals cannot be translated or resized without disturbi…
We demonstrate that the lowest possible price change (tick-size) has a large impact on the structure of financial return distributions. It induces a microstructure as well as it can alter the tail behavior. On small return intervals, the tick-size can distort the calculation of correlations. This especially occurs on s…
Adversarial training can hurt robust accuracy in small sample size scenarios.
In this work, we combine two different ranking methods together with several other predictors in a joint random forest approach for the scores of soccer matches. The first ranking method is based on the bookmaker consensus, the second ranking method estimates adequate ability parameters that reflect the current strengt…
Study examines mean estimation in high dimensions with small data.
Modern deep neural network training is typically based on mini-batch stochastic gradient optimization. While the use of large mini-batches increases the available computational parallelism, small batch training has been shown to provide improved generalization performance and allows a significantly smaller memory footp…
We present a novel Metropolis-Hastings method for large datasets that uses small expected-size minibatches of data. Previous work on reducing the cost of Metropolis-Hastings tests yield variable data consumed per sample, with only constant factor reductions versus using the full dataset for each sample. Here we present…
SogCLR uses small batch sizes for global contrastive learning, achieving similar performance to SimCLR.