Speeds up complex portfolio exposure calculations.
problem Calculating exposure of portfolios with exotic derivatives.
method Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) technique.
result Significantly reduces computation time for nested Monte Carlo.
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48 results for “Regression Monte Carlo”
Develops a numerical algorithm for stochastic impulse control using regression surrogates.
problem Optimal impulse control in stochastic processes.
method Generates statistical surrogates for continuation and intervention functions, recursively trained over simulated state trajectories.
result Demonstrates flexibility and extensibility of the numerical scheme through case studies.
Paper proposes a new method to solve Schrödinger Bridge Problem using kernel regression.
problem Schrödinger Bridge Problem in the context of entropic optimal transport.
method Forward-reverse iterative Monte Carlo procedure using kernel regression.
result Developed a provably convergent algorithm for approximating Schrödinger potentials.
New algorithms improve MCMC efficiency for complex distributions.
problem High variance and low effective sample size in MCMC samplers.
method Antithetic Riemannian Manifold and Quantum-Inspired Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Improved effective sample size and variance reduction.
Improved Bayesian regression for large datasets using multilevel Gibbs sampling.
problem Efficiently handling large-scale Bayesian regression with complex posterior distributions.
method Developed a multilevel Gibbs sampler for linear mixed models, incorporating data clustering and correlated samples for variance reduction.
result Significant speed-up achieved for Bayesian regression without sacrificing predictive performance.
A new two-step LSMC method improves game option pricing accuracy.
problem Improving game option pricing accuracy using Monte Carlo methods.
method Proposed a two-step Longstaff Schwartz Monte Carlo approach with two regression models fitted at each time step.
result Our method produces more reliable results compared to the original LSMC.
Local Control Regression: Improving the Least Squares Monte Carlo Method for Portfolio Optimizationq-fin.PM
The least squares Monte Carlo algorithm has become popular for solving portfolio optimization problems. A simple approach is to approximate the value functions on a discrete grid of portfolio weights, then use control regression to generalize the discrete estimates. However, the classical global control regression can …
Bayesian framework for semiparametric regression of discrete data.
problem Complex distributional features of discrete data.
method Semiparametric modeling with nonparametric marginal and latent linear regression.
result Posterior consistency and analytical/posterior predictive distributions.
Many problems in financial engineering involve the estimation of unknown conditional expectations across a time interval. Often Least Squares Monte Carlo techniques are used for the estimation. One method that can be combined with Least Squares Monte Carlo is the "Regress-Later" method. Unlike conventional methods wher…
This paper explores alternative regression techniques in pricing American put options and compares to the least-squares method (LSM) in Monte Carlo implemented by Longstaff-Schwartz, 2001 which uses least squares to estimate the conditional expected payoff to the option holder from continuation. The pricing is done und…
A new GP method enforces physical constraints in probabilistic terms.
problem Unbounded model in GP regression leading to infeasible values.
method Introduces a new GP method using QHMC to enforce soft inequality and monotonicity constraints.
result Improves accuracy and reduces variance in GP model.
This paper offers a simple method for Bayesian regression with unknown transformations.
problem Joint inference of unknown transformations and model parameters in Bayesian regression is computationally inefficient and cumbersome.
method The paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric model via the Bayesian bootstrap to directly target the posterior distribution of the transformation.
result The approach delivers joint posterior consistency and efficient Monte Carlo inference for the transformation and all parameters.
In this paper we propose a novel dual regression-based approach for pricing American options. This approach reduces the complexity of the nested Monte Carlo method and has especially simple form for time discretised diffusion processes. We analyse the complexity of the proposed approach both in the case of fixed and in…
Unified platform for optimal stopping problems in R.
problem Optimal stopping problems in machine learning.
method Unified implementation of Regression Monte Carlo algorithms.
result Unified and reproducible platform for RMC algorithms.
Proposes a Monte-Carlo method for sparse signal reconstruction.
problem Reconstructing sparse signals in high-dimensional settings.
method Greedy Monte-Carlo (GMC) search algorithm.
result GMC can achieve perfect reconstruction in undersampling situations.
The paper explores how control variates can reduce variance in Monte Carlo simulations, especially for Sobolev functions.
problem Efficiency of control variates in reducing variance for Monte Carlo simulations.
method Study of a specific quadrature rule using nonparametric regression-adjusted control variates.
result A specific quadrature rule can improve the Monte Carlo rate and achieve the minimax optimal rate under sufficient smoothness assumptions.
Stochastic Earned Value Analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistical Learning Techniquesq-fin.RM
Paper introduces a new project control method using Monte Carlo and statistical learning.
problem Project control under uncertainty.
method Integrates Earned Value Methodology with Monte Carlo simulation and statistical learning.
result Estimates probabilities of project success and duration.
Gaussian process is a very promising novel technology that has been applied to both the regression problem and the classification problem. While for the regression problem it yields simple exact solutions, this is not the case for the classification problem, because we encounter intractable integrals. In this paper we …
Gradient-based Monte Carlo sampling algorithms, like Langevin dynamics and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, are important methods for Bayesian inference. In large-scale settings, full-gradients are not affordable and thus stochastic gradients evaluated on mini-batches are used as a replacement. In order to reduce the high vari…
The paper introduces new estimators for multivariate functions using Fourier methods.
problem Estimating multivariate functions like densities and regression functions.
method Monte Carlo estimators based on the Fourier integral theorem.
result Established rates of convergence for new estimators, often superior to existing methods.
Quantum algorithm speeds up financial option pricing.
problem Optimizing stopping times in stochastic processes for finance.
method Combines quantum computing techniques with LSM for optimal stopping.
result Achieves nearly quadratic speedup in runtime.
RQMC improves kernel-based learning by reducing deterministic error and offering computational advantages.
problem Improving kernel-based learning methods to reduce deterministic error and computational complexity.
method Randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) methods applied to random feature approximations.
result RQMC methods improve deterministic approximation error bound from to , matching QMC methods.
Tensor networks improve integration accuracy for high-dimensional problems.
problem Integration of high-dimensional functions with exponential convergence.
method Regression-free tensor network representations for integration.
result Exponential convergence achieved for non-analytic integrands.
Improved Least-Squares Monte Carlo with finite-difference ansatz.
problem Improving accuracy and stability in option pricing.
method Constructing an ansatz using finite-difference solution for conditional expected continuation payoffs.
result Reduces mean squared error and final pricing error.
Numerical Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for piecewise smooth target densitiesstat.CO
New method samples from piecewise smooth distributions using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
problem Sampling from distributions with discontinuous gradients.
method Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (GRHMC) for piecewise smooth targets.
result GRHMC processes sample from piecewise smooth target distributions with the desired distribution as the invariant distribution.
Unbiased method for Bayesian posterior means using kinetic Langevin dynamics.
problem Estimating Bayesian posterior means efficiently and accurately.
method Combines advanced splitting methods with enhanced gradient approximations in a multilevel Monte Carlo approach.
result The method achieves unbiased estimates with finite variance and central limit theorem properties.
New algorithm broadens BART models applicability.
problem Limited applicability of Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) models due to conditional conjugacy.
method Introduces a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for generalized BART models.
result Extends BART models to arbitrary generalized BART models without conditional conjugacy.
FBMS R package simplifies Bayesian model selection and averaging.
problem Complex regression settings with multi-modal posterior landscapes.
method Efficient MJMCMC and GMJMCMC algorithms for Bayesian model exploration.
result FBMS effectively handles Bayesian generalized linear and nonlinear models.
An analysis of linear regression and neural networks approximation for the pricing of swing optionsq-fin.MF
This paper compares linear regression and neural networks for pricing swing options.
problem Pricing swing options using approximation methods.
method Linear regression and neural networks for approximating the continuation value and swing price.
result The approximation methods converge to the actual swing price as the number of functions or Monte Carlo samples increases.
New algorithms for Bayesian inference in decentralized learning.
problem Bayesian inference in decentralized learning settings.
method Decentralized SGLD and Decentralized SGHMC.
result Convergence of iterates to target distribution in 2-Wasserstein distance.
Regularized linear regression under the penalty, such as the Lasso, has been shown to be effective in variable selection and sparse modeling. The sampling distribution of an -penalized estimator is hard to determine as the estimator is defined by an optimization problem that in general can only…
Improves sampling efficiency for complex Bayesian models.
problem Inference challenges in hierarchical Gaussian-process models.
method Optimised Riemannian-manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) with dynamic programming.
result Significant improvement in sampling efficiency and model evidence calculation.
This article reviews and explains HMC-based methods for sampling constrained continuous distributions.
problem Sampling from continuous distributions with constraints.
method HMC and related methods for constrained sampling.
result HMC and related methods are more efficient for constrained sampling.
We investigate Monte Carlo based algorithms for solving stochastic control problems with probabilistic constraints. Our motivation comes from microgrid management, where the controller tries to optimally dispatch a diesel generator while maintaining low probability of blackouts. The key question we investigate are empi…
metabeta uses neural networks to speed up Bayesian mixed-effects regression.
problem Bayesian mixed-effects regression is computationally expensive.
method metabeta is a neural network model that pre-trains to estimate posterior distributions.
result metabeta achieves comparable performance to MCMC at a fraction of the time.
Unified framework for CVA sensitivities, hedging, and risk assessment.
problem Computing and managing Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) sensitivities and risks.
method Probabilistic machine learning and refined regression on simulated data, validated by Monte Carlo methods.
result Identification of optimal sensitivities for practical tasks like hedging and risk assessment.
Bayesian meta learning improves uncertainty quantification in regression.
problem Trusting uncertainty quantification in Bayesian regression.
method Trust-Bayes framework for Bayesian meta learning, optimizing for trustworthy uncertainty quantification.
result Lower bounds and sample complexity for trustworthy uncertainty quantification are characterized.
Algorithm uncovers treatment effect heterogeneity in educational RD designs.
problem Discovering sources of treatment effect heterogeneity in regression discontinuity designs.
method Causal supervised machine learning algorithm to build a 'regression discontinuity tree'.
result Algorithm uncovers various sources of heterogeneity in the impact of attending a better secondary school.
FDN improves probabilistic regressors' adaptability to distribution shifts.
problem Overconfidence in modern probabilistic regressors under distribution shift.
method FDN uses input-conditioned distributions over network weights, trained with a Monte Carlo beta-ELBO objective.
result FDN produces predictive mixtures whose dispersion adapts to the input, providing shift-aware uncertainty.
Pricing Chinese convertible bonds using Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming.
problem Pricing Chinese convertible bonds accurately.
method Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic programming with regression and backward induction.
result An underpriced strategy significantly outperforms benchmarks.
Consider Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm, which is proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) for pricing American style securities. This algorithm is based on the projection of the value of continuation onto a certain set of basis functions via the least squares problem. We analyze the stability of the algori…
Study uses Bayesian regression to analyze consumer behavior changes in restaurants post-COVID-19.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior in the restaurant industry.
method Bayesian regression with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Estimates change in consumer behavior before and after the pandemic.
Primal-dual regression approach for Markov decision processes with general state and action spacemath.NA
Develops a regression approach for solving MDPs with general state and action spaces.
problem Solving MDPs with large or infinite state and action spaces.
method Regression-based primal-dual martingale approach.
result Tight upper and lower approximations of value functions and optimal policies.
The paper analyzes error propagation in dynamic programming for stochastic control and option pricing.
problem Error propagation in dynamic programming for stochastic control and option pricing.
method Formulated a general dynamic programming framework, used RKHSs for nonparametric regression, and Monte Carlo subsampling for estimating continuation value.
result Proposed a rigorous error decomposition and control mechanism for error propagation in dynamic programming.
A new explicit scheme calculates XVA adjustments using neural networks and conditional expectations.
problem Calculating cross valuation adjustments (XVA) in realistic financial scenarios.
method Simulation/regression scheme for BSDEs, using neural networks and quantile regressions.
result The scheme outperforms Picard iterations in high-dimensional and hybrid market risks.
Combines normalizing flows and quasi-Monte Carlo for improved numerical integration.
problem Improving the efficiency of numerical integration methods.
method Uses normalizing flows to approximate distributions and quasi-Monte Carlo for sampling.
result Demonstrates an estimator with significantly lower variance.
CAVI speeds up Bayesian MIDAS regression by 107x-1,772x with similar accuracy.
problem Efficiently estimating Bayesian MIDAS regression models with many predictors.
method Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) for linear MIDAS regression.
result CAVI produces posterior means nearly identical to Gibbs sampling with significant speedup.
Bayesian Additive Regression Networks use neural networks for regression tasks.
problem Regression tasks with small neural networks and ensemble learning.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Tree principles applied to small neural networks, Gibbs sampling for ensemble learning.
result BARN provides more consistent and often more accurate results than shallow neural networks, BART, and ordinary least squares.