SKADA-bench evaluates unsupervised DA methods across diverse modalities.
problem Evaluating unsupervised DA methods on diverse modalities with realistic validation.
method Nested cross-validation and unsupervised model selection scores.
result Highlights the importance of realistic validation and provides practical guidance.
MCCE generates realistic counterfactual explanations for tabular data.
problem Creating valid and actionable counterfactual explanations for complex tabular data.
method MCCE models the joint distribution of features and decision using an autoregressive generative model with decision trees. It samples counterfactuals and removes invalid ones.
result MCCE outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various performance metrics and is faster.
SBSS uses similarity to split data for better classifier training.
problem Training better classifiers with realistic performance estimation.
method SBSS uses both input and output space information to split data using similarity functions.
result SBSS outperformed ordinary stratified 10-fold cross-validation in 75% of scenarios.
Simulates realistic execution and costs in limit order books.
problem Realistic simulation of limit order books for large-tick assets.
method Tractable representation of spread and volume imbalance; calibrated event timing; feedback mechanism for market impact.
result Simulator yields realistic behavior and sensitivity to execution parameters.
Generating realistic asset-class scenarios from time series and curves
problem Simulating realistic trajectories for asset classes
method Combining parametric and resampling techniques
result More coherent and realistic simulations of yield-curve dynamics
New method generates plausible counterfactuals for time series classification.
problem Generating realistic counterfactuals for time series data.
method Gradient-based optimization with soft-DTW alignment and multi-faceted loss function.
result Our method outperforms existing approaches in temporal realism and distributional alignment.
Deployment and operation of autonomous underwater vehicles is expensive and time-consuming. High-quality realistic sonar data simulation could be of benefit to multiple applications, including training of human operators for post-mission analysis, as well as tuning and validation of autonomous target recognition (ATR) …
New method uses spherical convolutional Wasserstein distance to validate climate models.
problem Ensuring the accuracy of global climate models.
method Spherical convolutional Wasserstein distance to measure model differences.
result Phase 6 models show modest improvements in realistic climatologies.
New method uses synthetic data to validate financial agent classification.
problem Validation of machine learning methods for financial agent classification.
method Agent-based model to generate synthetic data for validation.
result Unsupervised clustering may give incorrect results for financial agents.
The three-state agent-based 2D model of financial markets as proposed by Giulia Iori has been extended by introducing increasing trust in the correctly predicting agents, a more realistic consultation procedure as well as a formal validation mechanism. This paper shows that such a model correctly reproduces the three f…
A new method validates generative models in high-dimensional data.
problem Scalability and interpretability issues in validating generative models.
method Learning-based goodness-of-fit testing inspired by Neyman--Pearson construction.
result The NPLM can effectively validate generative models in high-dimensional data.
CausalTime generates realistic time-series for TSCD evaluation.
problem Lack of realistic synthetic datasets for TSCD performance evaluation.
method Harnessing deep neural networks and normalizing flow for dynamics, extracting causal graphs, and deriving ground truth causal graphs.
result Generated datasets accurately reflect real data and ground truth causal graphs.
New CV method reduces bias in spatial prediction models.
problem Bias in standard cross-validation due to uneven sampling.
method Target-Weighted Cross-Validation (TWCV) framework.
result Weighted CV approaches reduce bias in prediction error.
Validates composite systems using discrepancy propagation.
problem Validation of industrial systems with costly real-world tests.
method Propagates bounds on distributional discrepancy measures through a composite system.
result Derives upper bound on real system failure probability from simulations.
The paper validates a classifier for identifying intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.
problem Developing reliable trading signals from intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.
method Constructed a composite day-classification system using three observable conditions.
result Classifier-positive days exhibit distinct intraday behavior but fail to generate profitable trading signals.
fintech-kMC simulates financial platforms for AI/ML model validation.
problem Validation of AI/ML models in real-world financial applications.
method Agent-based model with kinetic Monte Carlo engine.
result Generates realistic synthetic data for testing AI/ML models.
Agent-based models, particularly those applied to financial markets, demonstrate the ability to produce realistic, simulated system dynamics, comparable to those observed in empirical investigations. Despite this, they remain fairly difficult to calibrate due to their tendency to be computationally expensive, even with…
Quasi-equilibrium models for aggregate variables are widely-used throughout finance and economics. The validity of such models depends crucially upon assuming that the systems' participants behave both independently and in a Markovian fashion. We present a simplified market model to demonstrate that herding effects bet…
New bucketing scheme improves Byzantine robustness for heterogeneous data.
problem Byzantine attacks on federated learning with heterogeneous data.
method Bucketing scheme to adapt robust algorithms to non-iid data.
result Bucketing scheme ensures convergence against Byzantine attacks.
Designing new molecules with a set of predefined properties is a core problem in modern drug discovery and development. There is a growing need for de-novo design methods that would address this problem. We present MolecularRNN, the graph recurrent generative model for molecular structures. Our model generates diverse …
RL agents optimize order execution in a realistic market simulation.
problem Optimal order execution challenges in a complex market.
method Multi-agent RL in a historical order book simulation.
result RL agents converge to TWAP strategies in some scenarios.
Study evaluates cross-validation methods for clinical ECG classification, finding leave-source-out more reliable.
problem Overoptimistic cross-validation estimates for new patient sources.
method Empirical evaluation of K-fold and leave-source-out cross-validation methods.
result Leave-source-out cross-validation provides more reliable performance estimates.
Paper validates ABM using stylized financial facts.
problem Validate ABM-generated financial data against real-world data.
method Compare ABM results with stylized financial facts.
result Model successfully replicates stylized financial facts.
New framework validates counterfactual estimations in network interference settings.
problem Challenges in causal effect estimation and validation in network interference settings.
method Introduces a distribution-preserving network bootstrap and counterfactual cross-validation procedure.
result Validates counterfactual estimations in diverse network interference settings.
Develops a validated trading framework for market microstructure signals.
problem Overfitting and lookahead bias in algorithmic trading.
method Interpretable hypothesis-driven signal generation, reinforcement learning, strict out-of-sample testing.
result Modest annualized returns with strong downside protection and market-neutral characteristics.
TSAM predicts directed temporal links using GCN and self-attention.
problem Predicting links in directed temporal networks.
method GCN, self-attention mechanism, autoencoder architecture, graph attentional layers, graph convolutional layers, graph recurrent unit layer.
result TSAM outperforms benchmarks on four realistic networks.
The rough Bergomi model introduced by Bayer, Friz and Gatheral has been outperforming conventional Markovian stochastic volatility models by reproducing implied volatility smiles in a very realistic manner, in particular for short maturities. We investigate here the dynamics of the VIX and the forward variance curve ge…
A new explicit scheme calculates XVA adjustments using neural networks and conditional expectations.
problem Calculating cross valuation adjustments (XVA) in realistic financial scenarios.
method Simulation/regression scheme for BSDEs, using neural networks and quantile regressions.
result The scheme outperforms Picard iterations in high-dimensional and hybrid market risks.
This study investigates the effects of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling in unsupervised Maximum Likelihood (ML) learning. Our attention is restricted to the family of unnormalized probability densities for which the negative log density (or energy function) is a ConvNet. We find that many of the techniques used…
As sensor networks for health monitoring become more prevalent, so will the need to control their usage and consumption of energy. This paper presents a method which leverages the algorithm's performance and energy consumption. By utilising Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques, we provide an adaptive framework, which…
Reshuffling splits improves hyperparameter optimization's generalization performance.
problem Improving peak performance of machine learning models through better hyperparameter optimization.
method Reshuffling splits for every hyperparameter configuration improves generalization performance.
result Reshuffling leads to better generalization performance compared to fixed splits.
ABIDES-MARL uses MARL to study market behavior in a realistic financial simulation.
problem Understanding equilibrium behavior in complex financial market games.
method Combines MARL with a realistic LOB simulation to study market behavior.
result Validated approach by solving an extended Kyle model and showing how execution strategies shape market dynamics.
We provide a bridge between generative modeling in the Machine Learning community and simulated physical processes in High Energy Particle Physics by applying a novel Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) architecture to the production of jet images -- 2D representations of energy depositions from particles interacting …
HRFA generates high-resolution, realistic adversarial examples for DNNs.
problem Revealing vulnerabilities of DNNs with imperceptible, semantic attacks.
method Modifies latent feature representation, backpropagating through generative model.
result Generates adversarial examples with up to 1024x1024 resolution, evading denoising defenses.
In the medical domain, the lack of large training data sets and benchmarks is often a limiting factor for training deep neural networks. In contrast to expensive manual labeling, computer simulations can generate large and fully labeled data sets with a minimum of manual effort. However, models that are trained on simu…
BREEDS benchmarks assess model robustness to subpopulation shifts.
problem Measuring model robustness to novel subpopulation shifts.
method Controlled synthesis of realistic distribution shifts using class structure.
result Validated model sensitivity and effectiveness of robustness interventions.
Generic generation and manipulation of text is challenging and has limited success compared to recent deep generative modeling in visual domain. This paper aims at generating plausible natural language sentences, whose attributes are dynamically controlled by learning disentangled latent representations with designated…
DFKI Cabin Simulator tests visual monitoring functions in vehicles.
problem Validating novel human-vehicle interfaces and driver assistance systems.
method Driving simulator with in-cabin mock-up and camera system.
result Validation of in-cabin monitoring functions for advanced driver assistance and automated driving.
While tasks could come with varying the number of instances and classes in realistic settings, the existing meta-learning approaches for few-shot classification assume that the number of instances per task and class is fixed. Due to such restriction, they learn to equally utilize the meta-knowledge across all the tasks…
Transformers learn to recall with non-orthogonal embeddings in realistic settings.
problem Understanding how transformers store and retrieve knowledge in practical scenarios.
method Analyzing a single-layer transformer with random embeddings trained on a token-retrieval task.
result Explicit formulas for the model's storage capacity reveal a multiplicative dependence on sample size, embedding dimension, and sequence length.
The paper addresses selection bias in conformal prediction for focal units.
problem Selection bias in marginally valid conformal prediction intervals for focal units.
method A general framework for constructing selection-conditional coverage prediction sets.
result Efficient methods for various selection rules with exact finite-sample coverage.
Study validates Libor model for insurance benefits calculation.
problem Valuation of long-term insurance guarantees.
method Mean-field Libor market model, numerical ALM, aggregated life insurance data.
result Derives estimators for future discretionary benefits.
The safety and resilience of fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) are of significant concern, as exemplified by several headline-making accidents. While AV development today involves verification, validation, and testing, end-to-end assessment of AV systems under accidental faults in realistic driving scenarios has been lar…
Benchmark proposes to assess molecule docking efficiency.
problem Lack of realistic benchmarks for measuring progress in drug design.
method Proposes a docking-based benchmark using SMINA software.
result Graph-based generative models fail to generate high-scoring molecules.
New method for robust financial portfolio analysis.
problem Challenges in modeling financial portfolio dependence structure.
method Nonparametric Angles-based Correlation (NAbC) method.
result Valid inferences and flexible scenarios for portfolio analysis.
Develops simple approximations for credit risk estimation.
problem Estimating conditional default probabilities for corporate loans.
method Closed form approximations to maximum likelihood estimator for logit type models.
result The approximations are as good as the MLE under certain conditions.
The matrix-based Renyi's α-entropy functional and its multivariate extension were recently developed in terms of the normalized eigenspectrum of a Hermitian matrix of the projected data in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). However, the utility and possible applications of these new estimators are rather new an…
Deep learning models brain deformations based on atrophy and growth data.
problem Simulating brain deformations due to atrophy and growth.
method Differentiable biomechanical model using deep learning.
result Trained model can rapidly simulate new brain deformations with minimal residuals.