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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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1223 · May 202519922001200920172026
48 results for ROC-AUC

Improves ROC/AUC for multi-class classification.

problem Lack of sensible plots, sensitivity to imbalanced data, inability to specify mis-classification cost, and lack of evaluation uncertainty quantification.
method Factorizes multi-class ROC into a one-dimensional vector representation for visualization and summary.
result Provides a binary AUC-equivalent summary and mis-classification weights specification.

Deep neural networks predict earthquake locations with high accuracy.

problem Predicting the location of earthquakes with high precision.
method Recurrent Convolutional Neural Networks (R-CNN) model that accounts for spatio-temporal dependencies.
result Neural networks model outperforms baseline models in predicting earthquakes with ROC AUC 0.975 and PR AUC 0.0890.

Study reveals significant performance flips in GLOD using repurposed graph classification datasets.

problem Performance discrepancies in graph-level outlier detection using repurposed classification datasets.
method Repurposed binary classification datasets for GLOD; analyzed ROC-AUC performance.
result Performance of GLOD models significantly flips depending on which class is down-sampled.

Proposes a method to evaluate classifiers with missing labels using multiple imputation.

problem Missing labels during model evaluation can introduce bias, especially in Missing Not At Random (MNAR) data.
method Develops a multiple imputation technique to estimate and provide predictive distributions for metrics like precision, recall, and ROC-AUC.
result The predictive distribution's location and shape are generally correct, even in the MNAR regime.

TrialGraph uses graph machine learning to improve clinical trial design and predict side effects.

problem Complexity and cost in clinical trials hinder drug development.
method Curated clinical trial data set converted to graph-structured formats, applied graph machine learning algorithms.
result MetaPath2Vec algorithm performed exceptionally well, improving prediction accuracy.

This report examines the Pinned AUC metric introduced and highlights some of its limitations. Pinned AUC provides a threshold-agnostic measure of unintended bias in a classification model, inspired by the ROC-AUC metric. However, as we highlight in this report, there are ways that the metric can obscure different kinds…

2019-03-05abs ↗pdf ↗

In many situations, we need to build and deploy separate models in related environments with different data qualities. For example, an environment with strong observation equipments (e.g., intensive care units) often provides high-quality multi-modal data, which are acquired from multiple sensory devices and have rich-…

2018-09-06abs ↗pdf ↗

In this work, we ask two questions: 1. Can we predict the type of community interested in a news article using only features from the article content? and 2. How well do these models generalize over time? To answer these questions, we compute well-studied content-based features on over 60K news articles from 4 communit…

2018-08-27abs ↗pdf ↗

In Machine Learning as a Service, a provider trains a deep neural network and gives many users access. The hosted (source) model is susceptible to model stealing attacks, where an adversary derives a surrogate model from API access to the source model. For post hoc detection of such attacks, the provider needs a robust…

2019-12-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Rapid overlay of chemical structures (ROCS) is a standard tool for the calculation of 3D shape and chemical ("color") similarity. ROCS uses unweighted sums to combine many aspects of similarity, yielding parameter-free models for virtual screening. In this report, we decompose the ROCS color force field into "color com…

2016-06-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Study compares AI models for stock price prediction using financial news.

problem Predicting stock price movements using financial news.
method Used FinBERT, GPT-4, and Logistic Regression for sentiment analysis and prediction.
result Logistic Regression outperformed FinBERT and GPT-4, achieving 81.83% accuracy.

HED Score improves temporal evaluation of detection accuracy.

problem Temporal agnosticism in existing evaluation frameworks for non-stationary processes.
method Measure-theoretic HED Score integrating exponentially decaying kernel over posterior probability stream.
result HED Score achieves 388.8% improvement over ROC/AUC on NSL-KDD benchmark.

Area under ROC (AUC) is an important metric for binary classification and bipartite ranking problems. However, it is difficult to directly optimizing AUC as a learning objective, so most existing algorithms are based on optimizing a surrogate loss to AUC. One significant drawback of these surrogate losses is that they …

2018-04-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are powerful nonlinear architectures that are known to be robust to random perturbations of the input. However, these models are vulnerable to adversarial perturbations--small input changes crafted explicitly to fool the model. In this paper, we ask whether a DNN can distinguish adversarial …

2017-03-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Sleep staging is a crucial task for diagnosing sleep disorders. It is tedious and complex as it can take a trained expert several hours to annotate just one patient's polysomnogram (PSG) from a single night. Although deep learning models have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in automating sleep staging, interp…

2019-10-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Learning node embeddings that capture a node's position within the broader graph structure is crucial for many prediction tasks on graphs. However, existing Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures have limited power in capturing the position/location of a given node with respect to all other nodes of the graph. Here w…

2019-06-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Graphs models are vulnerable to distribution shifts, which this work explains and mitigates.

problem Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are susceptible to distribution shift, leading to performance degradation.
method Theoretical analysis quantifying conditional shift, proposing an approach to estimate and minimize it.
result The proposed approach demonstrates up to 10% absolute ROC AUC improvement under various distribution shifts.

New activation function BrownianReLU improves LSTM network performance on financial time series.

problem Gradient instability in noisy financial time series data.
method Introduces BrownianReLU, a stochastic activation function based on Brownian motion.
result Significantly improved predictive accuracy and generalization on financial datasets.

EHBOS enhances HBOS by capturing feature interactions, improving anomaly detection.

problem Limited ability of HBOS to detect anomalies in datasets with feature interactions.
method Incorporates two-dimensional histograms to capture feature pair dependencies.
result EHBOS outperforms HBOS on datasets with critical feature interactions, achieving notable improvements in ROC AUC.

Electronic medical records (EMRs) supports the development of machine learning algorithms for predicting disease incidence, patient response to treatment, and other healthcare events. But insofar most algorithms have been centralized, taking little account of the decentralized, non-identically independently distributed…

2019-03-22abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes RfQ processes on MD2C platforms using probabilistic models.

problem Analyzing the negotiation process on MD2C platforms to ensure dealers' profitability.
method Probabilistic graphical models and causal inference.
result Generative models can match predictive accuracy of discriminative models while enforcing business requirements.

Recommendation problems with large numbers of discrete items, such as products, webpages, or videos, are ubiquitous in the technology industry. Deep neural networks are being increasingly used for these recommendation problems. These models use embeddings to represent discrete items as continuous vectors, and the vocab…

2019-07-10abs ↗pdf ↗

ECLIPSE detects AI hallucinations in finance with high accuracy.

problem Hallucinations in AI-generated answers limit safe deployment in finance.
method Combines entropy estimation and perplexity decomposition to measure model evidence use.
result ECLIPSE achieves ROC AUC of 0.89 and average precision of 0.90 on financial QA dataset.

GUIDE detects anomalies in attributed networks by reconstructing node attributes and higher-order structures.

problem Lack of effective mechanisms for detecting anomalies in complex network interactions.
method GUIDE uses attribute and structure autoencoders, graph attention, and reconstruction errors to identify anomalies.
result GUIDE significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple real-world datasets.

Many applications of machine learning require a model to make accurate pre-dictions on test examples that are distributionally different from training ones, while task-specific labels are scarce during training. An effective approach to this challenge is to pre-train a model on related tasks where data is abundant, and…

2019-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs) embed nodes in a graph into Euclidean space, which has been shown to incur a large distortion when embedding real-world graphs with scale-free or hierarchical structure. Hyperbolic geometry offers an exciting alternative, as it enables embeddings with much smaller distortion. …

2019-10-28abs ↗pdf ↗

MOTGNN integrates multi-omics data for disease classification with improved accuracy and interpretability.

problem Challenges in integrating multi-omics data due to high dimensionality, heterogeneity, and lack of reliable interaction networks.
method MOTGNN uses XGBoost for graph construction, modality-specific GNNs for representation learning, and a deep feedforward network for cross-omics integration.
result MOTGNN outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by 5-10% in accuracy, ROC-AUC, and F1-score across three real-world disease datasets.

KACDP model improves credit default prediction with enhanced interpretability.

problem Insufficient interpretability and limited performance in credit default prediction.
method Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for handling complex multi-dimensional data.
result KACDP model outperforms mainstream models in performance metrics.

Quantum method detects financial stress regimes from market data.

problem Detecting financial stress regimes from market data.
method Adapted Pauli Correlation Encoding to quantum topological data analysis.
result Quantum method can recover Betti numbers exactly at every scale.