The paper proposes a machine learning method to estimate proxy CDS rates for illiquid counterparties.
problem Estimating counterparty default risks from illiquid CDS quotes for financial valuation and risk management.
method Constructing proxy CDS rates by associating illiquid counterparty liquid CDS Proxy using machine learning techniques.
result Some classifiers achieve highly satisfactory accuracy rates in constructing proxy CDS rates.
New framework for choosing optimal proxy metrics from past experiments.
problem Difficult to measure long-term treatment effects in experiments.
method Statistical framework to define and construct optimal proxy metrics.
result Optimal proxy metric depends on experiment's sample size.
New model uses heteroscedastic Gaussian process for alkenone SST proxy.
problem Restoring historical sea surface temperatures using proxies.
method Heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression method.
result Nonparametric approach handles variable noise patterns and outliers.
We use smaller proxy datasets to speed up hyperparameter search.
problem Time-consuming and costly training of neural networks on large datasets.
method Generate smaller 'proxy datasets' by sampling, training on easy/hard examples, or generating synthetic data. Compare proxy quality using variance measures.
result Proxy datasets can explain up to 95% of the variance in full dataset results, significantly faster.
New method identifies latent treatment effects from proxy models.
problem Identifying heterogeneous treatment effects under unobserved confounding.
method Compressed observable operator and spectral analysis of treatment effects.
result Eigenvalues of the operator represent latent treatment effects.
Method for creating synthetic multi-fidelity data sets.
problem Lack of representative synthetic datasets for multifidelity optimisation benchmarks.
method Systematic generation of synthetic fidelities from preexisting datasets.
result Allows systematic investigation of lower fidelity proxies' influence.
Adaptive masked proxies improve few-shot segmentation efficiency.
problem Efficiently segmenting objects with limited labeled data in robotics.
method Constructs segmentation weights from few labelled samples using multi-resolution average pooling and masked embeddings.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art in few-shot semantic segmentation on PASCAL-5i.
BIGMACS aligns multiple ocean sediment cores using Bayesian inference and Gaussian process regression.
problem Aligning and synchronizing ages from different ocean sediment cores using multiple proxies.
method BIGMACS uses Bayesian inference and Gaussian process regression to align and integrate age proxies.
result Constructs a new Deep Northeastern Atlantic stack and age models for additional cores.
Research builds an index measuring analysts' perception of informational asymmetry.
problem Measuring the level of informational asymmetry among companies.
method Developed an algorithm based on Elo rating to capture analysts' perception.
result The model shows good fit with significant variables: coverage, volatility, Tobin q, and size.
New method removes unwanted information from representations efficiently.
problem Learning representations that are uninformative about a target variable.
method Adversarial training with a novel proxy metric for mutual information, leading to an analytically computable approximation.
result Our method effectively removes unwanted information with limited time budget.
A new framework improves VaR recalibration by balancing reliance on imperfect volatility proxies.
problem How to balance reliance on imperfect volatility proxies in one-sided VaR recalibration.
method Proxy-reliance control framework that interpolates between constant-shift and proxy-scaled corrections.
result Lower or intermediate proxy reliance can outperform fully proxy-scaled recalibration in stressed left-tail VaR control.
Framework uses proxy variables to detect causal relations between static entities.
problem Estimating cause-effect relations between static entities like art pieces and their copies.
method Introduces proxy variables to transform static entities into random variables, then applies observational causal discovery.
result Framework successfully detects 75% of causal relations in a human-elicited dataset of words.
Neural networks improve life insurance solvency calculations.
problem Computational challenges in Monte Carlo simulations for life insurance solvency.
method Use of neural networks as a proxy model for risk-neutral pricing.
result Neural networks solve feature engineering and selection problems in replicating portfolios.
Study accelerates NAS research with a large dataset of ZC proxies.
problem Speeding up neural architecture search with ZC proxies.
method Created NAS-Bench-Suite, evaluated 13 ZC proxies across 28 tasks, and provided a unified codebase.
result ZC proxies capture substantial complementary information and can improve NAS algorithm performance.
Unified framework for analyzing neural networks trained by gradient descent.
problem Lack of generalizable guarantees for neural networks trained by gradient descent.
method Proxy convexity and proxy Polyak-Lojasiewicz inequalities.
result Unified guarantees for neural networks trained by gradient descent.
PPI uses proxy data to improve inference from limited labels across related tasks.
problem Statistical inference with limited labels across multiple related tasks.
method Prediction-powered inference framework that uses cross-task recalibration to improve power and accuracy.
result Cross-task recalibration can substantially reduce confidence interval widths when labels are scarce.
Predicting delayed outcomes in recommender systems using proxies.
problem Predicting delayed outcomes in recommender systems.
method Formalized as adversarial, delayed online learning problem; proposed Factored Forecaster (FF) and Residual Factored Forecaster (RFF) neural network architectures.
result Residual Factored Forecaster (RFF) outperforms direct forecaster and Factored Forecaster (FF) in predicting human behavior.
Adapts to shifts in latent subgroup distributions without labeled target data.
problem Adapting to domain shifts when latent subgroup distributions differ.
method Uses concept and proxy variables from source domain, and unlabeled target data.
result Optimal target predictor can be identified and estimated.
Paper detects proxies in linear regression models causing discrimination.
problem Discrimination in machine learning models using proxies for protected attributes.
method Formulated a definition of proxy use, identified proxies via second-order cone program, and extended to justified business necessity.
result Proxies in linear regression models can be efficiently identified and removed to reduce discrimination.
ML models predict water table depth more accurately than PB models, especially in data-scarce regions.
problem Uncertainty in large-scale simulations of water table depth due to biased observational data and model flexibility.
method Constructed three ML models using XGBoost and over 20 million real and proxy observations across the US and Canada.
result ML models correlate 0.6-0.75 with real and proxy observations, significantly better than PB models (0.21-0.40).
Study semi-supervised learning with noisy proxy covariates, deriving bounds and showing gains.
problem Learning from noisy proxy covariates with scarce labels.
method Two-stage estimator learning kernel eigenfeatures from all proxy covariates and fitting a ridge predictor on labeled data.
result Finite sample bounds show fast labeled sample rates and consistent gains over supervised and semi-supervised baselines.
DFPV improves PCL for confounded bandit policy evaluation.
problem Estimating causal effects in confounded settings with high-dimensional data.
method Deep feature proxy variable method (DFPV) for high-dimensional, nonlinear relationships.
result DFPV outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic benchmarks and confounded bandit problems.
New method improves reliability of selecting individuals based on predicted treatment effects.
problem Reliability of selecting individuals based on predicted conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is unreliable.
method Denoised Conformal Alignment, combining proxy errors, variance estimation, and Benjamini-Hochberg selection.
result Significantly improved power in selecting individuals while maintaining false discovery rate control.
A framework uses proxies to prioritize treatment without estimating causal effects.
problem Prioritizing treatment when causal effects are hard to estimate.
method Decision-focused framework identifying conditions for proxy usefulness.
result Proxies can recover correct effect ordering under specific conditions.
New method recovers latent confounders from high-dimensional proxy variables.
problem Detecting latent confounders from high-dimensional proxy variables.
method Proxy Confounder Factorization (PCF) framework using ICA-PCF and GD-PCF.
result ICA-PCF recovers confounders with high correlation and low error in synthetic and real-world data.
Single proxy variable helps estimate causal effects from confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects from treatment to outcome when unobserved confounders are present.
method Assumes a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and a known mechanism generating the proxy from the confounder. Proves causal effects are identifiable under completeness assumption.
result Causal effects are identifiable under SPICE assumption.
A scalable method for deep metric learning using chance constraints.
problem Improving deep metric learning by addressing feasibility issues.
method Relating DML to chance constraints, reformulating as a feasibility problem, and iteratively training proxies.
result The method effectively improves deep metric learning performance across multiple benchmarks.
Develops methods to improve demand counterfactuals from imperfect proxies.
problem Imperfect proxies in demand models lead to biased counterfactuals and invalid inference.
method Practical toolkit for market-level and individual data, requiring minimal computation.
result Improves substitution prediction and counterfactual performance.
New method handles many noisy proxy controls for causal inference.
problem Causal inference with many noisy proxy controls and unknown confounders.
method Linear models with rank-restricted and sparse nuisance parameters, penalization methods.
result Estimators achieve better performance in high dimensions, especially with many proxies.
proxymate diagnoses and corrects proxy estimates for reliable inference.
problem Systematic bias in proxy estimates can lead to invalid inference on primary outcomes.
method Four-level framework for proxy validation and adjustment, including diagnostic checks and targeted corrections.
result Facilitated quick decision making on thousands of experiments at Meta.
Improves fairness without protected group labels by using proxy groups.
problem Lack of protected group labels makes it hard to improve fairness.
method Investigates improving fairness metrics for proxy groups and tests their effectiveness.
result Proxy fairness strategy works well in practice but depends on fairness metric choice.
Estimates and infers heterogeneous treatment effects in randomized experiments using machine learning.
problem Estimating and inferring heterogeneous treatment effects in randomized experiments with high-dimensional data.
method Post-processing machine learning proxies to estimate key features like best linear predictors and average effects.
result Valid inference on key features of heterogeneous effects in high-dimensional settings.
New conditions show proxy data can improve policy learning in sparse expert data contexts.
problem Improving sample complexity of policy learning with sparse expert data.
method Sufficient conditions for proxy data to improve sample complexity, adaptable to LLMs.
result Provable improvement in sample complexity for policy learning with proxy data.
A data proxy reduces NAS computation cost by preserving key examples.
problem High computation cost in Neural Architecture Search (NAS).
method Measuring example importance based on relative accuracy ranking and creating a data proxy.
result Preserves almost same relative accuracy ranking with 10-20x smaller data proxy.
A new probabilistic approach improves deep metric learning by considering image uncertainties and class-specific variances.
problem Proxy-based deep metric learning struggles with image uncertainties and class-specific structures.
method Introduces non-isotropic probabilistic proxy-based deep metric learning using directional von Mises-Fisher distributions.
result Improves generalization performance and competitive on standard benchmarks.
Estimates disease prevalence using non-ignorable missing data in health surveys.
problem Estimating disease prevalence in non-representative samples with non-ignorable missing data.
method Connects auxiliary proxy variable framework to label shift setting, uses high-dimensional covariates without generative models.
result Fails to account for non-ignorable missingness can lead to significant misestimations.
Proposes a method to create robust linear models with noisy proxies of unobserved variables.
problem Learning robust linear models to handle interventions on unobserved variables with noisy proxies.
method Regularization term that balances in-distribution performance and robustness to interventions.
result Single proxy can create prediction optimal estimators under interventions of bounded strength.
Bayesian method estimates causal effects with proxy networks.
problem Estimating causal effects with only proxy measurements of a latent interference network.
method Structural causal model with Block Gibbs sampler and Locally Informed Proposals.
result Accurately estimates causal effects even with noisy proxy networks.
Proxy measures in competitive systems lead to corruption and inefficiency.
problem Corruption of proxy measures in competitive systems.
method Agent-based model integrating insights from complex systems, contest theory, behavioral economics, and cultural evolution.
result Proxy measures lead to corruption and convergence towards an equilibrium level of corruption.
Kernel methods estimate causal effects with a single proxy for deterministic confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects with a single proxy for an unobserved confounder.
method Two kernel-based methods: two-stage regression and maximum moment restriction.
result Both kernel methods can consistently estimate the causal effect.
Estimates proxy-based inference adjustments for distribution shifts.
problem Imperfect proxy data leads to biased inference.
method Empirical calibration of proxy-primary metric discrepancy as a random effect.
result Empowers inference without individual-level response data.
Study shows how adjusting for a binary proxy can bound causal effects.
problem Bounding causal effects with a binary confounder and proxy.
method Monotonicity assumption applied to a binary confounder and observed proxy.
result Adjusting for a proxy produces a measure of the effect between unadjusted and true measures.
Predictive analytics uses proxy data when true data is scarce, but this can lead to errors.
problem Bias in using proxy data for predictive analytics.
method Proposes a two-step estimator using high-dimensional statistics to combine proxy and true data.
result Achieves better predictive accuracy with less true data.
Study finds no significant impact of US sovereign credit rating downgrade on equity market.
problem Impact of US sovereign credit rating downgrade on US equity market.
method Event study methodology using three companies and S&P500 index.
result No significant effects of US sovereign credit rating downgrade on US equity market.
New methods identify causal effects without needing complete proxy variables.
problem Identifying causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders.
method Partial identification methods that do not require completeness of proxy variables.
result Obtain bounds on causal effects using available proxy variables.
Efficiently selects data points for deep learning using smaller proxy models.
problem Expensive data selection methods in deep learning.
method Uses a small proxy model to perform data selection.
result Improves data selection runtime by an order of magnitude without significant accuracy loss.
Q-NETs use neural networks to estimate integrals of low-dimensional functions efficiently.
problem Estimating integrals of multidimensional functions with costly evaluations.
method Fixed neural networks (Q-NETs) that operate on proxy function parameters to calculate exact integrals over subsets of dimensions.
result Q-NETs can calculate integrals over any subset of dimensions without resampling or retraining the proxy.
Estimates causal effect using proxies in multi-domain settings.
problem Estimating causal effect in settings with unobserved confounders across domains.
method Proposes estimation techniques using proxy variables for discrete or categorical data.
result Proves identifiability and consistency of causal effect estimation.