New algorithm for causal bandits with propagating interventions.
problem Handling causal graphs with side-information for sequential decision-making.
method Proposes a novel causal bandit algorithm that can propagate interventions throughout a causal graph.
result Achieves O ( γ ∗ log ( ∣ A ∣ T ) / T ) O(\sqrt{ γ^* \log(|\mathcal{A}|T) / T}) O ( γ ∗ log ( ∣ A ∣ T ) / T ) regret bound, where γ ∗ γ^* γ ∗ depends on causal graph structure. New method uncovers small but significant local activities in time-series data.
problem Reconstructing small but important local activities in time-series data.
method Neural state-space models with latent causal-effect disentanglement.
result Demonstrated proof-of-concept on reconstructing ectopic foci in cardiac electrical propagation.
Algorithm detects causal change points quickly with adaptive interventions.
problem Detecting changes in causal models with interventions.
method Centralization technique, Kullback-Leibler divergence for intervention selection, adaptive intervention policy.
result Theoretical first-order optimality and validation through simulations and real-world studies.
Algorithm identifies missing data distributions in graphical models.
problem Identifying missing data distributions in graphical models with interventionist perspective.
method Tree-based identification algorithm that tracks selection bias and admissible intervention strategies.
result Valid estimating equations for missingness mechanism and complete data distribution.
Paper proposes methods to reduce financial contagion by targeted cash injections.
problem Financial contagion through interconnected networks.
method Dynamic model of payments with external control term for corrective cash injections.
result Targeted cash injections can significantly reduce default propagation.
A new diffusion model encodes causal structures for better interventional sampling and edge inference.
problem Lack of causal analysis in standard diffusion models.
method Causality-encoded diffusion framework that trains conditional models consistent with a directed acyclic graph.
result The method enables accurate interventional sampling and edge inference, with theoretical guarantees and practical applications.
PLIs improve classifier performance by fine-tuning latent representations.
problem Difficult interpretation of high-dimensional latent representations in neural networks.
method Back-propagation of manual changes to low-dimensional embeddings using t-distributed stochastic neighbourhood embeddings.
result Manual separation of class clusters in latent space enhances classifier performance.
Bayesian method estimates intervention effects in non-linear data.
problem Causal discovery from observational data with non-linear relationships.
method Gaussian Process Networks (GPN) with Bayesian estimation and Monte Carlo methods.
result Approach accurately identifies and reflects uncertainty of causal estimates.
Proposes a new method to estimate individual treatment effects using unlabeled data.
problem Difficult estimation of individual treatment effects due to high costs of intervention studies.
method Combines causal inference matching and semi-supervised learning label propagation.
result Demonstrates successful mitigation of data scarcity in ITE estimation.
Cycles in causal learning cause feedback loops under intervention.
problem Cyclic causal structures lead to feedback loops in causal inference.
method Theoretical observations about self-referential distributions and their factorizations.
result Cyclic causal dependence can exist even when observational data suggest independence.
Probabilistic inference in graphical models is the task of computing marginal and conditional densities of interest from a factorized representation of a joint probability distribution. Inference algorithms such as variable elimination and belief propagation take advantage of constraints embedded in this factorization …
DCMA uses generative models to analyze treatment effects on entire outcome distributions.
problem Traditional mediation analysis focuses on summary contrasts, missing complex distributional changes.
method DCMA learns conditional generative models for mediators and outcome, reconstructing interventional distributions via Monte Carlo simulation.
result DCMA captures both summary effects and rich distributional contrasts like energy distance and Wasserstein distance.
DCMA uses generative models to analyze complex treatment effects on outcome distributions.
problem Analyzing complex and nonlinear causal mechanisms through outcome-level summary contrasts.
method Generative learning framework for identifying and estimating treatment effects on entire outcome distributions.
result Reconstructs interventional outcome distributions via Monte Carlo forward simulation, capturing both summary and distributional contrasts.
IIC decouples causal identification into two phases, significantly reducing the HTC gap in linear SEMs.
problem Determining causal effect coefficients in linear SEMs with latent confounders using the Half-Trek Criterion (HTC) leaves a gap of inconclusive causal effects.
method Iterative Identification Closure (IIC) framework that decouples causal identification into two phases: a seed function S_0 and Reduced HTC propagation.
result IIC strictly subsumes both HTC and ancestor decomposition, reducing the HTC gap by over 80% with combined seeds.
Proposes MCBO for causal Bayesian optimization with model learning and regret bounds.
problem Maximizing downstream variables in unknown structural models.
method Model-based causal Bayesian optimization (MCBO) that learns full system models and trades off exploration and exploitation.
result First non-asymptotic bounds for CBO and practical implementation showing superior performance.
Paper aims to ensure reliable detection of out-of-distribution data with certifiable worst-case guarantees.
problem Deep neural networks are overconfident with OOD inputs, posing safety risks.
method Enforces low confidence and bounds in an l ∞ l_\infty l ∞ -ball around OOD points using interval bound propagation (IBP). result Certifiable worst-case guarantees for OOD detection are possible without significant loss in accuracy.
Adversarial CBO optimizes under interventions by adversaries and non-stationarities.
problem Optimizing in the presence of adversaries and non-stationary factors.
method Formalizes CBO as ACBO, introduces CBO-MW algorithm combining online learning and causal modeling.
result First algorithm with bounded regret for ACBO, achieving superior performance in synthetic and real-world environments.
Estimates joint causal effects using single-variable interventions on nonlinear models.
problem Estimating joint causal effects from single-variable interventions.
method Identifiability result and practical estimator for decomposing causal effects.
result Joint effects can be inferred without joint interventional data for nonlinear additive models.
Python package cegpy models processes with asymmetries.
problem Leveraging CEGs for processes with structural asymmetries.
method Developed cegpy, a Python package for CEGs with Bayesian model selection and probability propagation.
result First CEG package in any language that can model symmetric and asymmetric structures.
Introduces info intervention to handle causal questions and check counterfactual variables.
problem Controversial interpretation of causal questions for non-manipulable variables and lack of power to check counterfactual variables.
method Intervenes input/output information of causal mechanisms, providing causal diagrams for communication and theoretical focus.
result Causal diagrams based on info intervention provide a new perspective on information transfer as causality.
This paper tackles CRL for multi-node interventions, achieving identifiability guarantees.
problem CRL under unknown multi-node interventions, focusing on single-node assumptions.
method Establishes identifiability results for general latent causal models under stochastic interventions.
result Identifiability up to ancestors using soft interventions, perfect identifiability using hard interventions.
The purpose of this paper is to advance the understanding of the conditions that give rise to flash crash contagion, particularly with respect to overlapping asset portfolio crowding. To this end, we designed, implemented, and assessed a hybrid micro-macro agent-based model, where price impact arises endogenously throu…
This work tackles causal graph discovery with stochastic interventions to minimize the number of interventions.
problem Discovering the true causal graph from observational data with limited interventions.
method Proposes a stochastic intervention model and studies verification and search problems with approximation algorithms.
result Provides approximation algorithms with competitive ratios for verification and search problems.
Our goal is to identify beneficial interventions from observational data. We consider interventions that are narrowly focused (impacting few covariates) and may be tailored to each individual or globally enacted over a population. For applications where harmful intervention is drastically worse than proposing no change…
Paper proposes scalable algorithm to estimate intervention targets in linear models.
problem Estimating intervention targets in linear models from observational and interventional data.
method The paper proposes a scalable algorithm that estimates intervention sites from the difference between precision matrices of observational and interventional datasets.
result The algorithm consistently identifies all intervention targets and updates observational Markov equivalence classes to interventional ones.
New method disentangles mixed interventional and observational data in SEMs.
problem Learning causal relationships from mixed interventional and observational data.
method Developed a method to disentangle mixed interventional and observational data in linear SEMs with Gaussian noise.
result The method can identify causal graphs up to their interventional Markov Equivalence Class.
The paper presents a method to estimate joint interventional distributions from marginal interventional data.
problem Estimating joint interventional distributions from marginal interventional data.
method The paper extends the Causal Maximum Entropy method to use interventional data and employs Lagrange duality to prove the solution lies in the exponential family.
result The method allows for causal feature selection and inference of joint interventional distributions.
Bayesian method for causal discovery from unknown general interventions.
problem Learning causal DAGs from unknown interventions that modify parent sets.
method Bayesian approach with MCMC for approximating posterior DAGs and intervention targets.
result Bayesian method can identify DAGs and intervention targets up to equivalence classes.
Interventional data helps identify latent factors without distributional assumptions.
problem Identifying latent factors from interventional data without distributional assumptions.
method Leveraging geometric signatures of latent factors' support from interventional data.
result Latent causal factors can be identified up to permutation and scaling given data from perfect do-interventions.
IntDC framework uncovers causal relationships from non-interventional data.
problem Detecting causal relationships in non-interventional complex systems.
method Interventional Embedding Entropy (IEE) for causal strength measurement.
result IEE accurately finds causal edges and quantifies causal strength robustly.
Method learns causal effects from multiple interventions in presence of unobserved confounders.
problem Disentangling causal effects from sets of interventions in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Non-linear structural causal models with additive, multivariate Gaussian noise; algorithm that learns causal model parameters by pooling data from different regimes and maximizing combined likelihood.
result Identification proofs demonstrate that causal effects of single interventions can be learned from sets of interventions, even with unobserved confounders.
New algorithms improve causal graph discovery with adaptive interventions, even under worst-case interventional costs.
problem Discover causal relationships from data with adaptive interventions and node-dependent costs.
method Define new benchmarks and provide adaptive search algorithms for causal graph discovery.
result Logarithmic approximations achieved under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.
We address the problem of optimal Central Bank intervention in the exchange rate market when interventions create feedback in the rate dynamics. In particular, we extend the work done on optimal impulse control by Cadenillas and Zapatero to incorporate temporary market reactions, of random duration and level, to Bank i…
GIT uses gradient estimators to target interventions for causal discovery.
problem Challenges in inferring causal structure from observational data.
method GIT uses gradient estimators to target interventions for causal discovery.
result GIT performs on par with competitive baselines, surpassing them in low-data regimes.
Paper relaxes faithfulness assumption for causal discovery using interventions.
problem Violation of faithfulness assumption in natural systems leads to incorrect causal structure identification.
method Use intervention-immediacy faithfulness assumption to identify causal structures with hard interventions.
result Interventions contain information about causal structure that can identify causal structures when faithfulness is violated.
Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the interbank lending market as an important diffusion channel for financial distress d…
FMI uses matching to mimic interventions for causal feature learning.
problem Challenges in causal discovery from observational data.
method Feature Matching Intervention (FMI) using matching to emulate perfect interventions.
result FMI outperforms in identifying causal features from observational data.
Paper models COVID-19 spread as spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Understanding complex spacetime propagation of COVID-19.
method Generative and intensity-free model using adversarial imitation learning.
result Imitation learning framework for scalable model inference.
BaCaDI discovers causal structures from unknown interventions.
problem Inferring causal structures from unknown interventions with limited data.
method Bayesian framework with gradient-based variational inference.
result BaCaDI outperforms related methods in identifying causal structures and intervention targets.
Graph-coupled causal Bayesian optimization transfers information across related interventions.
problem Optimizing expensive systems where interventions are costly and causal effects are confounded.
method Ties intervention effects together through shared causal parameters, improving estimation.
result Information-gain and regret bounds show improved performance with shared mechanisms.
The paper tackles matching a desired mean in causal systems through shift interventions.
problem Matching a desired mean in causal systems.
method Defining Markov equivalence classes, proposing active learning strategies, deriving lower bounds.
result Proposed active learning strategies require fewer interventions than previous approaches, especially for certain graph classes.
Designs interventions to learn causal graphs with minimum cost.
problem Learning causal graphs with minimum intervention cost.
method Prove NP-hardness, develop greedy and constrained algorithms.
result Achieve nearly optimal intervention design for sparse graphs.
Intervention loss stabilizes GAN training and reduces mode collapse.
problem Stabilizing GAN training and mitigating mode collapse.
method Intervention loss regularization term introduced into GAN objective.
result Improved GAN training stability and reduced mode collapse.
Model identifies causal structure from paired observational and interventional data with unknown soft interventions.
problem Identifying causal structure from observational and interventional data with unknown soft interventions.
method Proposes a scalable causal discovery model that aggregates subset-level PDAGs and applies contrastive cross-regime orientation rules.
result The model asymptotically recovers the identifiable PDAG and can orient additional edges compared to non-contrastive subset-restricted methods.
Introduces CStrees for modeling context-specific causal models from observational and interventional data.
problem Modeling context-specific causal relationships from mixed data types.
method Introduces CStrees with a novel factorization criterion and graphical characterization for context-specific conditional independence models.
result Derives a graphical characterization of model equivalence for observational CStrees and extends it to CStree models under context-specific interventions.
New algorithm reduces interventional strategy complexity for causal graph discovery.
problem Designing efficient interventional strategies for causal graph discovery.
method Developed an r-adaptive algorithm for causal graph discovery that minimizes the number of interventions.
result Achieved an approximation of O(min{r, log n} * n^{1/min{r, log n}}) for the verification number.
New approach to counterfactual reasoning avoids demographic interventions.
problem Limitations of traditional counterfactual reasoning in AI systems.
method Backtracking counterfactual approach instead of interventional.
result Allows addressing social concerns without demographic interventions.
Paper characterizes causal graphs from hard interventions and proposes a learning algorithm.
problem Discovering causal structure from hard interventions and observational data.
method Proposes graphical constraints and a learning algorithm based on do-calculus.
result Characterizes interventional equivalence classes of causal graphs with latent variables.