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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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3672108144 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for Posterior Refinement

Posterior refinement improves sample efficiency in Bayesian neural networks.

problem Bayesian neural networks suffer from poor predictive performance due to inaccurate posterior approximations.
method Propose refining Gaussian approximate posteriors with normalizing flows to improve predictive distributions.
result Posterior refinement yields competitive predictive performance with minimal computational overhead.

We propose a black-box variational inference method to approximate intractable distributions with an increasingly rich approximating class. Our method, termed variational boosting, iteratively refines an existing variational approximation by solving a sequence of optimization problems, allowing the practitioner to trad…

2016-11-20abs ↗pdf ↗

New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.

problem Semiparametric inference with nonparametric priors and fractional posteriors.
method Established a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for fractional posterior distributions, proposed shifted-and-rescaled credible sets.
result Fractional posterior credible sets provide reliable uncertainty quantification but have inflated size; shifted-and-rescaled set is an efficient confidence set.

Bayesian method refines surrogate models for accurate full waveform inversion.

problem Complex input/output relations in full waveform inversion make accurate surrogate models difficult.
method Iterative refinement of surrogate models using MCMC samples and progressively expanding frequency bandwidth.
result Highly accurate surrogate model across full bandwidth enables accurate final MCMC inversion.

ASPIRE improves amortized posterior inference for Bayesian inverse problems.

problem Bayesian inverse problems are computationally challenging due to uncertainty quantification.
method Iterative refinement of amortized posteriors using physics-based and summary statistics.
result ASPIRE achieves better posterior approximations with minimal extra computations.

New perspective on federated learning as posterior inference, improving optimization.

problem Optimizing global models in distributed learning settings.
method Formulated as posterior inference problem, using MCMC for approximate inference and federated averaging for refinement.
result Federated posterior averaging (FedPA) outperforms existing methods on benchmarks.

A new method improves posterior approximation for complex distributions.

problem Difficulty in capturing multimodal and heavy-tailed posteriors with standard normalizing flows.
method StiCTAF: stick-breaking mixture base with component-wise tail adaptation.
result Improved tail recovery and better mode coverage compared to benchmarks.

UT module refines VAE latent space, improving disentanglement and interpretability.

problem Irregular latent distributions cause posterior collapse and misalignment in VAEs.
method UT module uses G-KDE clustering, GM modeling, and PIT to transform latent space into uniform distribution.
result UT module enhances disentanglement and interpretability of latent representations.

Improved likelihood-free inference by localizing and refining low-dimensional approximations.

problem Poor performance of common likelihood-free methods in high-dimensional models.
method Localisation followed by refinement of low-dimensional summaries.
result Improved accuracy in marginal posteriors through localized and refined approximations.

DDVI uses diffusion models for variational inference, improving latent variable model performance.

problem Improving variational inference in latent variable models.
method Introduces diffusion-based variational posteriors trained with a regularized ELBO.
result Outperforms alternative variational posteriors on various benchmarks and a biology task.

FMCPE improves SBI accuracy by correcting posterior estimators with flow matching.

problem Model misspecification in SBI leads to biased or overconfident posteriors.
method Flow Matching Corrected Posterior Estimation (FMCPE) trains a posterior approximator and corrects it using calibration samples.
result FMCPE consistently mitigates misspecification effects, improving inference accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

ABI bypasses likelihood intractability with nonparametric distribution matching.

problem Approximate Bayesian computation's inefficiency in high-dimensional settings and under diffuse priors.
method Adaptive Bayesian Inference (ABI) compares posterior distributions directly using nonparametric distribution matching and MSW distance.
result ABI significantly outperforms other methods in high-dimensional or dependent observation regimes.

Accelerates pulsar light curve inference with learned representations and optimization.

problem Computational expense of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior inference.
method Combining U-Net latent representations with local simulator-guided optimization.
result 120x reduction in inference time (24 hours to 12 minutes) with accuracy preserved.

Bayesian coresets improved with random sampling and quasi-Newton optimization.

problem Efficiently approximate Bayesian posterior distributions for computationally expensive inference.
method Randomly select a subset of data points, then optimize weights using quasi-Newton method.
result First algorithm with high-probability KL divergence bound on coreset quality.

In narrow asymptotic settings Gaussian VAE models of continuous data have been shown to possess global optima aligned with ground-truth distributions. Even so, it is well known that poor solutions whereby the latent posterior collapses to an uninformative prior are sometimes obtained in practice. However, contrary to c…

2019-12-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved phylogenetic inference using VBPI-Mixtures for tree topology and branch length.

problem Multimodality of tree-topology posterior distributions in phylogenetic inference.
method VBPI-Mixtures algorithm that uses mixture learning within the BBVI framework.
result VBPI-Mixtures captures tree-topology distributions better than VBPI.

MsIGN tackles high-dimensional Bayesian inference using multiscale structure.

problem High-dimensional Bayesian inference challenges due to the curse of dimensionality.
method MsIGN generates samples from coarse to fine scale, minimizing Jeffreys divergence.
result MsIGN outperforms previous approaches in posterior approximation and mode capture.

CoLT assesses neural posterior estimates by detecting discrepancies across conditioning inputs.

problem Validating neural posterior estimates from limited data.
method Conditional Localization Test (CoLT) learns a localization function to detect strong deviations.
result CoLT provides rigorous guarantees and practical scalability for comparing true and neural posterior distributions.

New method finds all thin film structures from reflectometry data.

problem Computational prohibitive for standard algorithms, leading to unreliable analysis.
method Prior-Amortized Neural Posterior Estimation (PANPE) combining simulation-based inference and adaptive priors.
result Identifies all realistic structures in seconds, setting new standards in reflectometry.

Attention-only transformers learn from context via two stages of inference.

problem Learning from corrupted token sequences in minimal transformers.
method Two-stage empirical Bayes interpretation: kernel-weighted posterior mean and particle dynamics.
result Effective denoising without explicit noise schedules, showing posterior-mean recovery under asymptotic conditions.

Paper improves Bayesian regret bounds for Thompson Sampling in reinforcement learning.

problem Improving Bayesian regret bounds for Thompson Sampling in reinforcement learning.
method Using a discrete set of surrogate environments and posterior consistency analysis, the authors derive an upper bound of order O(Hdl1T)O(H\sqrt{d_{l_1}T}).
result The derived upper bound of O(Hdl1T)O(H\sqrt{d_{l_1}T}) is a significant improvement over previous bounds.

Improved GP bandit algorithms for noiseless, varying noise, and RKHS norms.

problem Minimizing regret in Gaussian process bandits with unknown reward functions.
method New upper bound on maximum posterior variance, refined MVR and PE algorithms.
result Optimal regret bounds for noiseless, varying noise, and RKHS norms.

This paper proposes a new method for efficient data compression using Bayesian neural networks.

problem Efficient compression of data represented as functions mapping coordinates to signal values.
method Overfitting variational Bayesian neural networks to the data and compressing an approximate posterior weight sample using relative entropy coding.
result Our method achieves strong performance on image and audio compression while retaining simplicity.

Enhances RL with function approximation, improving regret bounds.

problem Improving exploration in reinforcement learning with function approximation.
method Prior-dependent Bayesian regret bound for PSRL with linear mixture MDPs, using value-targeted model learning and variance reduction.
result Established an upper bound of O(dH3TlogT){\mathcal{O}}(d\sqrt{H^3 T \log T}) for PSRL.

A new particle filter uses diffusion models to improve state estimation from noisy data.

problem Sequentially estimating the state of a dynamical system from noisy and incomplete observations.
method Uses a diffusion model to simulate and predict system dynamics, incorporating noisy observations to refine predicted states.
result An unbiased particle filtering method that rigorously fuses observational data with diffusion model simulations.

A new method for non-rigid point set registration reduces computational complexity.

problem Efficiently registering non-rigid point sets with large numbers of points.
method Structured Analytic Coherent Point Drift (Analytic-CPD) reformulates CPD for structured analytic mappings.
result Analytic-CPD reduces computational complexity by controlling the deformation model's dimensionality.

DAPS++ improves diffusion-based image restoration by decoupling prior and likelihood.

problem Decoupling prior and likelihood in diffusion-based inverse problems.
method Introducing DAPS++, which fully decouples diffusion-based initialization from likelihood-driven refinement.
result Achieves high computational efficiency and robust reconstruction performance.

Efficiently learns from partial labels using variational inference.

problem Learning from noisy and ambiguous partial labels in crowdsourcing.
method Amortized variational inference for probabilistic posterior approximation.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in accuracy and efficiency.

A scalable Bayesian inference method for mixed-effects models in systems biology.

problem Scalable Bayesian inference for complex hierarchical mixed-effects models in systems biology.
method Constructing amortized approximations of likelihood and posterior distributions, refined for each individual dataset.
result Our method is both fast and competitive in statistical accuracy compared to exact pseudomarginal Bayesian inference.

Improved flow-based inference speeds up and boosts accuracy for complex simulations.

problem Challenging inverse problems in astronomy, such as modeling strong gravitational lens systems.
method Refines flow-based generative models with simulator feedback for posterior inference.
result Improves accuracy by 53% and speeds up inference by up to 67x.

Expectation propagation (EP) is a deterministic approximation algorithm that is often used to perform approximate Bayesian parameter learning. EP approximates the full intractable posterior distribution through a set of local approximations that are iteratively refined for each datapoint. EP can offer analytic and comp…

2015-06-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Amortized variational inference (AVI) replaces instance-specific local inference with a global inference network. While AVI has enabled efficient training of deep generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAE), recent empirical work suggests that inference networks can produce suboptimal variational parameter…

2018-02-07abs ↗pdf ↗

A framework for navigating environments with spatially correlated obstacles and uncertain blockage status.

problem Navigation in environments with spatially correlated obstacles of uncertain blockage status.
method Modeling spatial correlation with Gaussian Random Field, developing Bayesian belief updates, proposing a two-stage learning framework with offline and online phases.
result Consistent performance gains over baselines in environments with adversarial interruptions or clustered natural hazards.

3D dust map of the Milky Way improves resolution and accuracy.

problem Reconstructing the 3D dust distribution in the Milky Way.
method Gaussian process regression on spherical coordinates with iterative grid refinement.
result Improved 3D dust map with increased resolution and accuracy.

New inequality for refined knot invariants in a specific space.

problem General adjunction inequality for refined ss-invariants does not hold.
method Introduced an adjunction inequality for a specific spatial refinement in kCP2k\overline{\mathbb{CP}^2}.
result An adjunction inequality holds for the ss-version of the Sq1Sq^1-refinement in kCP2k\overline{\mathbb{CP}^2}.

Proposes a robust VIB approach using soft labels and mutual info estimation.

problem Improving robustness of VIB to adversarial perturbations.
method Refines categorical class information with soft labels from a reference network, relaxes Gaussian posterior assumption.
result Significantly outperforms benchmarked models on MNIST and CIFAR-10.

We study refined topological string theory in the presence of orientifolds by counting second-quantized BPS states in M-theory. This leads us to propose a new integrality condition for both refined and unrefined topological strings when orientifolds are present. We define the SO(2N) refined Chern-Simons theory which co…

2012-02-20abs ↗pdf ↗