In recent years, deep generative models have been shown to 'imagine' convincing high-dimensional observations such as images, audio, and even video, learning directly from raw data. In this work, we ask how to imagine goal-directed visual plans -- a plausible sequence of observations that transition a dynamical system …
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48 results for “Plausible Transitions”
Improves BC policies by generating new plausible trajectories.
problem Sub-optimal data quality in BC leads to poor policy performance.
method Trajectory Stitching (TS) generates new plausible transitions.
result TS significantly improves behavioural policies over original data.
Long-term human motion can be represented as a series of motion modes---motion sequences that capture short-term temporal dynamics---with transitions between them. We leverage this structure and present a novel Motion Transformation Variational Auto-Encoders (MT-VAE) for learning motion sequence generation. Our model j…
In banking practice, rating transition matrices have become the standard approach of deriving multi-year probabilities of default (PDs) from one-year PDs, the latter normally being available from Basel ratings. Rating transition matrices have gained in importance with the newly adopted IFRS 9 accounting standard. Here,…
We propose a novel method to directly learn a stochastic transition operator whose repeated application provides generated samples. Traditional undirected graphical models approach this problem indirectly by learning a Markov chain model whose stationary distribution obeys detailed balance with respect to a parameteriz…
ARFs generate plausible counterfactuals for models, improving model understanding.
problem Creating realistic counterfactuals for model analysis.
method Adversarial Random Forests (ARFs) for generating plausible counterfactuals.
result ARFs efficiently generate plausible counterfactuals in a model-agnostic way.
Robust MDPs (RMDPs) can be used to compute policies with provable worst-case guarantees in reinforcement learning. The quality and robustness of an RMDP solution are determined by the ambiguity set---the set of plausible transition probabilities---which is usually constructed as a multi-dimensional confidence region. E…
We define and compute plausible counterfactual explanations using density constraints.
problem Efficiently compute plausible counterfactual explanations for machine learning models.
method Propose and study a formal definition of plausible counterfactual explanations, use density estimators, and introduce convex density constraints.
result Convex density constraints ensure plausible and feasible counterfactual explanations.
New method generates plausible counterfactuals for time series classification.
problem Generating realistic counterfactuals for time series data.
method Gradient-based optimization with soft-DTW alignment and multi-faceted loss function.
result Our method outperforms existing approaches in temporal realism and distributional alignment.
Fund2Persona creates personalized financial advisor personas from fund data, improving investment advice.
problem Lack of consistent advisor expertise and difficulty in encoding it in LLM systems.
method Grounds financial advisor personas in fund disclosures, market context, and manager commentary through an agentic actor--scorer--patcher loop.
result Personas better recover portfolio decisions and manager interpretation than generic baselines.
Fund2Persona creates personalized financial advisor personas from fund data, improving investment advice and manager interpretation.
problem Lack of consistent and specific financial advisor expertise in personalized investment advice.
method Grounds financial advisor personas in fund disclosures, holdings transitions, market context, and manager commentary through an agentic actor--scorer--patcher loop.
result Personas better recover portfolio decisions and grounded manager interpretation than generic baselines.
Method generates plausible financial stress scenarios using large deviations.
problem Misleading risk management by overlooking or overemphasizing implausible scenarios.
method Exploits large-deviations principle to concentrate risk factors near most likely stress configurations.
result Can generate informative stress scenarios even with limited historical data.
Optimism about the poorly understood states and actions is the main driving force of exploration for many provably-efficient reinforcement learning algorithms. We propose optimism in the face of sensible value functions (OFVF)- a novel data-driven Bayesian algorithm to constructing Plausibility sets for MDPs to explore…
Investigating the Scalability and Biological Plausibility of the Activation Relaxation Algorithmcs.AI
AR algorithm simplifies backpropagation with improved scalability and biological plausibility.
problem Improving backpropagation algorithms for complex neural networks and biological plausibility.
method Introducing learnable backwards weights and avoiding nonlinear derivative computations; relaxing frozen feedforward pass assumption.
result Simplified AR algorithm maintains performance on complex CNN architectures and challenging datasets.
We investigate the dynamics of a trust game on a mixed population where individuals with the role of buyers are forced to play against a predetermined number of sellers, whom they choose dynamically. Agents with the role of sellers are also allowed to adapt the level of value for money of their products, based on payof…
Study uses time series analysis to predict player churn and conversion in games.
problem Predicting player churn and conversion in free-to-play games.
method State Space time series approach with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Unobserved Components models.
result Unobserved Components approach fails to detect marketing campaigns and predicts abandonment poorly.
NeuTSFlow models continuous functions behind time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting treats time series as discrete sequences, ignoring their continuous nature.
method NeuTSFlow uses Neural Operators to learn the transition between historical and future function families.
result NeuTSFlow outperforms traditional methods in forecasting accuracy and robustness.
Derives a biologically plausible neural network for Slow Feature Analysis.
problem Learning latent features from time series data.
method Starting from an SFA objective, derives Bio-SFA with a biologically plausible neural network implementation.
result Validates Bio-SFA on naturalistic stimuli, reproducing interesting properties of brain cells.
A principled approach to understand network structures is to formulate generative models. Given a collection of models, however, an outstanding key task is to determine which one provides a more accurate description of the network at hand, discounting statistical fluctuations. This problem can be approached using two p…
Evaluating the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Gaussian Process Approachstat.ME
UK's rapid vaccine rollout linked to reduced COVID-19 mortality.
problem Assessing the impact of accelerated vaccine rollout on public health outcomes.
method Flexible probabilistic models combining interrupted time series analysis and synthetic control methods with multi-output Gaussian processes.
result Substantial reduction in COVID-19 mortality with little effect on transmission rates.
New framework predicts diverse, contextually plausible 3D human motions.
problem Predicting multiple plausible future 3D poses given observed poses.
method Developed a new variational framework that conditions latent variable on past observation to encourage relevant information.
result Our approach generates motions of higher quality and preserves contextual information.
GAIT-prop derives a biologically plausible learning rule from backpropagation.
problem Biological implausibility in traditional backpropagation for neural networks.
method GAIT-prop uses a top-down model to convert output error into plausible targets for weight updates.
result GAIT-prop and backpropagation give identical weight updates under certain conditions.
Model distinguishes homophily and triadic closure in network analysis.
problem Conflated properties of homophily and transitivity in network analysis.
method Generative model with triadic closure edges and inference procedure.
result Can identify mechanisms responsible for network edges and community structure.
Backpropagation is explained as a diffusion process in neural networks.
problem The biological plausibility of Backpropagation is questioned.
method Demonstrated that time-delayed neurons and forward-backward waves approximate the gradient in deep networks.
result Backpropagation can be interpreted as a diffusion process, approximating the gradient for non-fast inputs.
New learning rules from information bottleneck improve deep learning without precise labels.
problem Training deep neural networks with backpropagation is biologically implausible.
method Kernelized information bottleneck principle with 3-factor Hebbian structure.
result The new learning rules perform nearly as well as backpropagation on image classification tasks.
The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e., computing a posterior of the latent state given the model. However, the key challenge in…
New measures for prediction validity and consonant plausibility introduced.
problem Challenges in predicting future observations and quantifying prediction uncertainty.
method Introducing Type-2 validity and using consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
result Achieving both Type-1 and Type-2 validity through consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
By and large, Backpropagation (BP) is regarded as one of the most important neural computation algorithms at the basis of the progress in machine learning, including the recent advances in deep learning. However, its computational structure has been the source of many debates on its arguable biological plausibility. In…
New method isolates epistemic uncertainty in diffusion models, improving plausibility scores.
problem Uncertainty quantification in diffusion models, especially epistemic uncertainty.
method Fisher information based approach using FLARE (Fisher-Laplace Randomized Estimator).
result FLARE improves uncertainty estimation in synthetic time-series generation tasks.
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are mainstay tools for assessing the long-term interactions between climate and the economy and for deriving optimal policy responses in the form of carbon prices. IAMs have been criticized for controversial discount rate assumptions, arbitrary climate damage functions, and the inade…
Enhances sequence memory capacity in neural networks.
problem Limited sequence capacity in Hopfield-like neural networks.
method Introducing a nonlinear interaction term and a generalized pseudoinverse rule.
result Significantly increased sequence capacity with novel scaling laws.
Training deep neural networks with the error backpropagation algorithm is considered implausible from a biological perspective. Numerous recent publications suggest elaborate models for biologically plausible variants of deep learning, typically defining success as reaching around 98% test accuracy on the MNIST data se…
New algorithm shows neural networks can learn without full backpropagation.
problem Stochastic gradient descent with backpropagation is non-biologically plausible.
method Random and fixed backpropagation weights in a feedback alignment algorithm.
result Error converges to zero exponentially fast in overparameterized networks.
Proposes a new neural network approach to credit assignment.
problem Credit assignment problem in deep neural networks.
method Contrastive similarity matching objective function.
result Deep networks learn to match similarity between layers.
The paper models blockchain queues and trading dynamics, finding conditions for transaction priority and price impact.
problem Understanding and predicting price impacts in blockchain trading environments.
method Developed a probabilistic model for blockchain queues with adversarial scheduling, derived expressions for transaction priority and price impact.
result Conditions for transaction priority and statistical models for price impact in blockchain trading environments.
Many real-world vision problems suffer from inherent ambiguities. In clinical applications for example, it might not be clear from a CT scan alone which particular region is cancer tissue. Therefore a group of graders typically produces a set of diverse but plausible segmentations. We consider the task of learning a di…
This note improves correlation stress tests using geodesic distance.
problem Improving financial risk management through better covariance stress tests.
method Proposes a new geometrically invariant definition of correlation stress tests.
result Demonstrates a submanifold approach to stress testing covariance matrices.
Measuring Model Riskq-fin.RM
We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The…
New method for data assimilation using score-based models.
problem Bayesian inverse problem of identifying plausible state trajectories.
method Score-based data assimilation, learning a score-based generative model of state trajectories.
result Effective method for zero-shot observation scenarios.
One conjecture in both deep learning and classical connectionist viewpoint is that the biological brain implements certain kinds of deep networks as its back-end. However, to our knowledge, a detailed correspondence has not yet been set up, which is important if we want to bridge between neuroscience and machine learni…
New learning algorithm mimics biological neural networks.
problem Biologically implausible backpropagation for directed neural networks.
method Introduces new neuronal dynamics and learning rule for arbitrary architectures, sparsity-inducing pruning method, and dynamical-systems characterization.
result Prunes irrelevant connections and improves learning efficiency.
New method uses entropy to generate multiple plausible causal maps.
problem Learning causal relationships from noisy data can lead to artifacts in DAGs.
method Entropy-based inference to generate an ensemble of plausible causal graphs.
result Multiple causal maps consistent with underlying data variability.
Stock markets show unusual overnight and intraday returns.
problem Unusual patterns of overnight and intraday returns in stock markets.
method Analyzed features of the returns to deduce the cause.
result The only plausible explanation for these returns is that they are due to market manipulation.
We propose a method to model multi-agent behaviors with limited observation and mechanical constraints.
problem Modeling real-world multi-agent behaviors with limited observation and mechanical constraints.
method Decentralized generative models with partial observation and mechanical constraints based on hierarchical variational recurrent neural networks.
result Our method effectively models and predicts biologically plausible behaviors with minimal constraint violations.
The paper relaxes constraints on predictive coding models, making them more biologically plausible.
problem Neurophysiological models of predictive coding are not fully biologically plausible.
method The paper relaxes constraints on standard predictive coding algorithms by removing neurally implausible features.
result The removal of neurally implausible features does not significantly affect learning performance.
Neural network models of early sensory processing typically reduce the dimensionality of streaming input data. Such networks learn the principal subspace, in the sense of principal component analysis (PCA), by adjusting synaptic weights according to activity-dependent learning rules. When derived from a principled cost…
Biological neural network mimics CCA for multi-channel data.
problem Implementing CCA in a biologically plausible neural network.
method Derive an online CCA algorithm with local synaptic updates for multi-compartmental neurons.
result The derived neural network architecture and synaptic updates resemble cortical pyramidal neuron behavior.
Fairness GANstat.ML
In this paper, we introduce the Fairness GAN, an approach for generating a dataset that is plausibly similar to a given multimedia dataset, but is more fair with respect to protected attributes in allocative decision making. We propose a novel auxiliary classifier GAN that strives for demographic parity or equality of …